Levi Rothermund
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Brest welcome Nice to Stade Francis-Le-Blé with both clubs sitting just outside the Ligue 1 top half, separated by a single point in the standings. Brest come into this on the back of a wild 5-1 win over Angers sandwiched between draws, while Nice have alternated between flashes of form and defensive wobbles all autumn. The curious bit here: the last two head-to-head meetings between these sides both finished level, yet this fixture has bookmakers leaning toward a home win rather than another stalemate.
Mama Baldé has scored twice in his last two outings for Brest and looks sharp running in behind. For Nice, Jonathan Clauss keeps popping up in dangerous areas from right-back, with a goal and an assist already logged in his last couple of games.
Hot stat: Brest put five past Angers in their most recent attacking showcase, their best single-match return of the season, yet they’ve managed just one goal combined across the other four matches in this sample. That inconsistency up front is worth watching here.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Ligue 1 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest |
| 🗓️ Date: | 23.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Brest vs Nice prediction
We think the value sits with Brest at home, not by a landslide, but a narrow edge feels right. Brest’s +3 goal difference and extra three points in the table tell a story of a side that’s grinding results out even without much consistency. Nice, by contrast, have scored six and conceded six across their last five, which is a fairly even split but tilts toward chaos rather than control whenever they travel.
Brest have committed more fouls and picked up fewer cards than you’d expect for a side that fouls a lot (25 fouls, only 3 yellows across their sample), suggesting a physical approach that referees have mostly let slide. Nice average fewer fouls but collect more cards (17 fouls, 5 yellows), a sign of mistimed or reactive challenges. Possession-wise Nice edge the passing numbers, which fits their 4-3-3 setup built around circulation through Witsel and Ndayishimiye, but control of the ball hasn’t translated into control of matches lately.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Brest to win either half |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Brest’s last five reads draw, win, draw, loss, loss, and the shape of it is telling. The 5-1 demolition of Angers stands out as an outlier against a run that otherwise includes a tight 1-1 with Lille, a 2-2 scrap against Monza, and losses to Auxerre and PSG. In our preview of Lille vs Brest we called a narrow Lille win with goals at both ends, and the 1-1 result went against that call, though the BTTS side of it did land. Brest’s finishing has clearly stayed streaky since.
Nice’s form arc is almost a mirror image: loss, win, win, loss, draw. The defeat to Lyon was the most recent entry, a 1-2 result that came after back-to-back wins over Strasbourg and Lille. In our preview of Lyon vs Nice we predicted a Lyon win with goals on both sides, and the eventual 1-2 scoreline delivered on that call. Nice’s defense keeps leaking in winnable spots, something Brest’s attack, inconsistent as it is, could look to exploit.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Brest | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 6 | 3 |
| Total shots | 27 | 23 |
| Free kicks | 23 | 14 |
| Corner kicks | 6 | 11 |
| Total fouls | 25 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 17 | 18 |
| Offsides | 1 | 8 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Brest vs Nice stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Brest the favourite
- Moneyline Brest 2.20 | Nice 3.00
- Draw 3.50
Bookmakers put Brest at roughly 43% to win this one against Nice’s 30%, with the draw hovering near 27%. Honestly, those numbers feel slightly generous to Brest given how patchy their scoring has been outside the Angers rout, but home advantage and the table gap probably justify the lean. We wouldn’t be shocked by a draw either, considering the recent head-to-head trend of level results.
Possible Starting Lineups
Brest possible starting eleven
- GK: Egil Selvik
- DF: Gautier Lloris, Kenny Lala, Bradley Locko, Luck Zogbe
- MF: Lucas Tousart, Hugo Magnetti, Joris Chotard, Kamory Doumbia, Pathé Mboup
- FW: Ludovic Ajorque
Julien Lachuer tends to stick with his 4-2-3-1 shape, and the minutes data backs up Tousart and Magnetti as the double pivot screening in front of the back four. Ajorque leads the line as the focal point, but watch Mboup and Mama Baldé for movement off him. Lloris, Lala and Locko have all played full minutes recently and look nailed on at the back.
Nice possible starting eleven
- GK: Yehvann Diouf
- DF: Jonathan Clauss, Xavier Mandza, Mohamed Abdelmoneim, Niels Nkounkou
- MF: Youssouf Ndayishimiye, Axel Witsel, Hicham Boudaoui
- FW: Mohamed Amoura, Sepe Elye Wahi, Gauthier Hein
Olivier Pantaloni’s 4-3-3 relies on Witsel dropping deep to dictate tempo alongside Ndayishimiye, freeing Boudaoui to push forward. Clauss remains the chief attacking outlet from fullback, and up top Amoura and Wahi should rotate through the channels while Hein drifts inside. Keep an eye on Wahi’s movement, he’s been Nice’s most direct runner in behind recently.
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Nice. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Our call leans Brest, but not with huge confidence. The home side’s recent scoring burst against Angers shows the ceiling is there, and their table position reflects a team that’s done enough to sit above Nice despite inconsistent form. Nice’s defense has leaked goals in four of their last five matches, which lines up well with a Brest attack capable of bursts even if it isn’t reliable week to week.
We’re backing Brest to edge this narrowly, somewhere around 2-1, with both teams finding the net given how open both defenses have looked recently. A draw wouldn’t surprise us given the head-to-head history, but the extra sharpness Brest showed against Angers tips our call just enough toward the home side.
