Brescia vs Pisa Prediction: 25.04.2025 Serie B Italy Preview

Two sides at contrasting points in their Serie B campaigns face off as Brescia welcome promotion-chasing Pisa to the Stadio Mario Rigamonti. For Brescia, survival is the task at hand, sitting 15th and only just above the relegation tangle. Pisa, on the other hand, are firmly entrenched in the automatic promotion places, and a win here could further bolster their ambitions of Serie A football next season. Given the stakes at both ends of the table, this fixture carries weighty significance for both groups of supporters. Will Brescia galvanize at home, or will Pisa’s winning form prove too robust?

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Brescia vs Pisa prediction

Given Pisa’s remarkable away form and Brescia’s mounting struggles, the smart value lies with Pisa to secure a result in Lombardy. Pisa boast a commanding 75% win rate from their recent four matches and have already toppled Brescia in the reverse fixture. Their attack has been clinical with 6 goals in the last five matches, and defensively they’ve shown greater resilience than their hosts.

Brescia’s struggles—just 2 wins in 13 league games this year and a frail home record—make them hard to trust. Notably, both clubs average nearly 10 fouls per game, but Pisa’s passing accuracy is markedly higher (over 83% in the last five games combined), reflecting a more cohesive and composed midfield. Brescia’s reliance on counterattacks has yielded meagre returns lately, with only three goals in five games and a sluggish tempo.

Expect a game with few clear-cut chances for Brescia, and more proactive football from Pisa, whose superior discipline and technicality could tip the scales. Given relative attacking outputs, both teams average just under one goal per match, so a narrow away win could be on the cards.

Team Analysis

Brescia: Recent Matches & Trends

It’s been a difficult season for Brescia under Rolando Maran, as their form line of one win, two draws, and two defeats from their last five matches illustrates. In their most recent fixture, Brescia managed only a 1-1 draw at home to Cosenza—worryingly, another relegation-threatened side. Their only recent win came unexpectedly against high-flying Spezia, but that victory is an outlier compared to consistent struggles to defend set pieces and a lack of cutting edge going forward. Brescia’s defensive lapses are evident: 8 yellow cards in their last 5 matches and 47 fouls committed show a side continually fighting fires rather than controlling the tempo. Offensively, just 3 goals scored and frequent layoffs to the medical table for their top attackers have not helped. The 3-5-2 formation often looks laboured, with midfielders tasked with excessive defensive work, affecting creativity.

Pisa: Recent Matches & Trends

Pisa under Filippo Inzaghi are riding the crest of a wave, with three wins from the last four outings and a broader record of 7 victories from their last 13 league matches. They march into Rigamonti confident, having put away Reggiana 2-0 in a display of clinical, organized football. The 3-4-2-1 pivots on a well-drilled backline and rapid, incisive attacks—evidenced by 6 goals in their last 5, 44 shots taken, but just 7 yellow cards, suggesting discipline under pressure. Their midfield, particularly in transition, benefits from superb pass accuracy (in excess of 80%), and set-piece defending has been a fortress. With less inclination to commit unnecessary fouls and a dynamic front line, this Pisa squad can control proceedings and capitalize on Brescia’s mistakes.

Most recent H2Hs: Pisa dominates

🚨Read our full Brescia vs Pisa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Pisa the favourite

With Pisa averaging a 47% implied win probability, they are installed as the bookies’ favourites, followed by the draw (29%), and Brescia trailing with 25%. The away side’s price is shaped by their hot form and Brescia’s blunt attack. The tight odds on ‘Under 2.5’ and ‘No’ on BTTS reflect two sides who—despite energetic spells—rarely produce high-scoring thrillers. Based on recent xG, the value sways hard toward Pisa on the “Draw No Bet” or “Double Chance” lines, especially given Brescia’s low conversion rate and Pisa’s better-organized back line.

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Key Players to Watch

Brescia: Gennaro Borrelli – The forward has netted twice in his last three matches, often carrying Brescia’s attacking threat despite limited service. His movement off the ball and aerial prowess means Pisa’s defence must track him closely.

Pisa: Stefano Moreo – With two goals and an assist in his last three outings, Moreo epitomizes the balance in Pisa’s play: clinical finishing blended with link-up play. His passing stats (38 passes last game, 86%+ accuracy) and ability to drag defenders make him one of Serie B’s underrated forwards.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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The Verdict

With all factors in play, Pisa’s balanced attack, higher technical quality, and impressive discipline point strongly towards an away win or at least avoiding defeat. Brescia’s home advantage is tempered by poor recent performances and a blunt strike force. Our prediction: Pisa Draw No Bet (safer), or straight Pisa win for those seeking bolder odds. This clash should be driven by tactical discipline rather than explosive action—don’t expect a goal fest, with under 2.5 goals likely to land. Both sides may play not to lose, but Pisa have the nous and momentum to edge it—and strengthen their Serie A credentials in the process.

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