Liam Duckstein
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Bradford City host Burnley at Valley Parade in the EFL Cup Round 2 on 26 August. The tie brings together two English clubs in very different form cycles right now. Bradford have been one of the more consistent sides across the last month, while Burnley arrive carrying a string of poor results that makes this a far more competitive fixture than the league-level gap between the clubs might suggest.
Defender Aden Baldwin has been a standout for Bradford, contributing two goals from the backline across his last three appearances, which gives Graham Alexander’s side a genuine aerial and set-piece threat. For Burnley, Zian Flemming is the name to watch: three goals in his last two starts, with 14 total shots in that span, makes him Burnley’s most dangerous attacking outlet by a considerable margin.
A hot stat worth flagging: Burnley conceded five goals in a single match against Notts County just weeks ago, eventually winning 6-5 in a chaotic game that exposed real defensive vulnerabilities. That kind of instability at the back will concern Nicky Hayen ahead of a trip to a Bradford side that has won five of their last six.
| 🏆 Tournament: | EFL Cup 2026/27, Round 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Valley Parade, Bradford |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:45 CEST |
Bradford City vs Burnley Prediction
Bradford’s form over the past 30 days is genuinely impressive: five wins and one draw from six matches, a run that includes back-to-back clean sheet victories over Sheffield Wednesday and Peterborough. Burnley, by contrast, have managed just one win in their last six, losing three times and drawing twice. Their most recent outing ended in a 1-3 defeat to West Brom.
The bookmakers still give Burnley a 44% implied probability of winning, but the raw form data tells a different story. Bradford are playing with confidence at home, and Burnley are shipping goals at an alarming rate. We predict Bradford City to win this match, representing clear value at odds around 3.25-3.40.
Bradford press high and generate corners at a strong rate: 26 corners across their last five matches compared to Burnley’s 15. Burnley’s pass accuracy is superior in raw numbers, but their ball retention has not translated into results. Bradford commit slightly more fouls (36 vs 34), though both sides stay reasonably disciplined on cards. The Bantams’ directness and set-piece threat make them dangerous in a knockout format where margins are tight.
- We predict Bradford City to win at approximately 3.30 odds
- Over 2.5 goals looks likely given Burnley’s defensive record
- Both teams to score is a reasonable lean given Burnley’s attacking quality through Flemming
- Corner kicks: Over 9.5 corners, with Bradford generating heavy volume from their wide play
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bradford City to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Bradford City have been in excellent shape. Their last five results include wins over Sheffield Wednesday (1-0), Peterborough (2-0), and Rochdale (2-0), a 2-2 draw with Salford City, and a 3-2 victory against Preston. That Preston match showed the team’s ability to come from behind or hold on through adversity, and the clean sheet run before it demonstrates defensive organisation under Graham Alexander. The goals have been spread across the squad too, with contributions from defenders, midfielders, and forwards, which makes Bradford harder to prepare for.
Burnley’s recent run is a genuine concern. Their last five matches produced a 1-3 loss to West Brom, a 2-2 draw with West Ham, a chaotic 6-5 win over Notts County, a 0-1 defeat to Torino, and a 2-2 draw with RCD Espanyol. That is one win in five, and the single victory came in a match where they conceded five goals. Nicky Hayen’s side are clearly struggling for defensive shape, and the attacking players outside of Flemming have produced very little across this period.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Bradford City | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 50 | 40 |
| Free kicks | 32 | 30 |
| Corner kicks | 26 | 15 |
| Total fouls | 36 | 34 |
| Interceptions | 24 | 14 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Bradford City vs Burnley stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Burnley the Favourite
- Moneyline Bradford City 3.30 | Burnley 2.15
- Draw 3.35
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 1.95
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.75 | No 2.05
The market prices Burnley as favourites, but the value is clearly with Bradford here. A win probability of 29% for the home side feels too low given their form over the last month. Bradford have won five of six, while Burnley have lost three of six. The 3.30 range on Bradford to win represents a genuine edge against a Burnley side that is leaking goals and missing consistency. The draw at 3.35 is also worth keeping in mind, since Burnley have drawn two of their last five, but we lean toward Bradford taking this one at home.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bradford City Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jon McCracken
- DF: Aden Baldwin, Matthew Pennington, Macauley Gillesphey, Callumm Connolly, Ibou Touray
- MF: Josh Neufville, Antoni Sarcevic, Adam Phillips, Bobby Pointon
- FW: Jake Beesley
Graham Alexander has been consistent with his personnel, and this group reflects the players with the most minutes across the last five matches. A 3-4-2-1 shape suits this squad well, with Baldwin offering a goal threat from deep and Callumm Connolly providing two assists from the right side. Macauley Gillesphey has also scored once from defence. Nick Powell and Will Swan provide options from the bench if Alexander wants to change the attacking shape. Jon McCracken is the clear first choice in goal with six saves across three appearances.
Burnley Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Max Weiß
- DF: Kyle Walker, Bashir Humphreys, Joe Worrall, Oliver Sonne, Connor Roberts
- MF: Hannibal Mejbri, Aaron Ramsey, Ugo Raghouber
- FW: Zian Flemming, Marcus Edwards
Burnley’s 4-2-3-1 setup gives Flemming the central attacking role he needs. Kyle Walker and Bashir Humphreys are the most consistent defensive presences, with Humphreys logging 196 passes across three matches and providing seven free kicks. Aaron Ramsey adds energy in midfield with seven total shots in three appearances, though his output in front of goal has been limited. Marcus Edwards has one assist and provides the link play between midfield and attack. Max Weiß takes the starting spot in goal with five saves across three games.
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Burnley. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Bradford City are in the form of their season. Five wins from six in the last 30 days, clean sheets in back-to-back league games, and a squad contributing goals from multiple positions. Burnley arrive at Valley Parade having won just once in five matches, conceding goals freely, and showing no defensive stability across their recent run.
The market undervalues Bradford here. A home side with an 83% win rate over the last month, facing a Burnley outfit that shipped five goals to Notts County and three to West Brom, should not be priced at 3.30. We back Bradford City to win this EFL Cup tie, with both teams finding the net given Flemming’s threat on the counter. The corner count should be high, and Over 2.5 goals is well supported by both teams’ defensive numbers in recent weeks.
