Sofia Quijada
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Boyaca Chico host Fortaleza at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja on August 27, in a Primera A Clausura fixture that pits the table’s bottom side against a team still fighting to climb the standings. Boyaca Chico sit last with zero points from three games and have conceded ten goals without reply in the Clausura, making this a significant test of Fortaleza’s ability to capitalise against a struggling opponent.
Defender Joan Cajares has been one of Fortaleza’s more consistent contributors, registering a goal from the backline, while midfielder Richardson Rivas leads their scoring with two goals over the last five matches and is the player most likely to hurt Boyaca Chico.
Hot stat: Boyaca Chico have scored zero goals across their last five matches in all competitions, registering just 22 total shots in that span.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026 – Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio La Independencia, Tunja |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:00 CEST |
Boyaca Chico vs Fortaleza Prediction
The numbers point clearly toward Fortaleza. Boyaca Chico have not scored in five consecutive matches and have conceded ten goals in just three Clausura games. Fortaleza, sitting 12th, are far from in dominant form themselves, but they carry far more attacking output: 57 shots, 21 corners, and 5 goals across their last five games compared to Boyaca Chico’s complete attacking blank.
The best value play here is a Fortaleza win. The bookmakers price both sides equally at around 34%, which undervalues Fortaleza given the gap in recent performance. Boyaca Chico’s 4-1-4-1 has provided almost no attacking threat, and their defensive structure has been repeatedly broken down. Fortaleza’s 4-2-3-1 generates volume from wide areas and through midfield runners, which should cause problems for a Chico backline that has looked porous all tournament.
Boyaca Chico average 32 fouls per five matches, giving Fortaleza regular set-piece opportunities. Fortaleza themselves commit 66 fouls over the same window, meaning this game could be physical and disrupted in rhythm, which generally suits the team with more technical quality in midfield. Fortaleza’s pass accuracy of 1,535 out of 1,862 passes dwarfs Boyaca Chico’s 890 from 1,116, reflecting a significant gap in ball control. Fortaleza’s nine yellow cards in five games suggest they press aggressively, which could be an issue if Chico manage to absorb pressure and hit on the break, though their recent record gives little reason to expect that.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Fortaleza to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 1.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Boyaca Chico’s form over the last 30 days is three losses from three, and the broader picture across their last 15 matches shows a sequence heavy with defeats and draws, with very few wins. In the Clausura they have lost to America de Cali (0-7), Santa Fe (0-2), and Jaguares de Cordoba (0-1), scoring nothing in any of those games. Their most recent outing was the 0-1 defeat to Jaguares, a team ranked lower than most in the division, which underlines just how deep the problems are under Jhon Jaime Gómez. The squad’s attacking players, S. Mera and I. Camargo, have combined for zero goals across five matches despite taking shots, suggesting a finishing problem as much as a creative one.
Fortaleza’s last five matches show one win, two draws, and two losses. Their most recent game was a 1-2 defeat to Atletico Nacional, a side ranked among Colombia’s best. Before that they beat Cucuta 2-0, lost 1-3 to Llaneros, drew 0-0 with Deportivo Pereira, and drew 1-1 with Alianza Petrolera. Richardson Rivas has been their standout attacker with two goals, and the team generates consistent volume in the final third despite the mixed results. Diego Arias has settled on a 4-2-3-1 structure that gives width through Teun Wilke and Juan Sebastian Herrera, with Santiago Vivas Vélez operating as a creative link between midfield and attack.
🚨Check out our dedicated Boyaca Chico vs Fortaleza stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Even Contest on Paper
- Moneyline Boyaca Chico 2.65 | Fortaleza 2.65
- Draw 2.95
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The market pricing both sides at 2.65 reflects the bookmakers’ average expectation of 34% each, essentially calling this a coin flip. We disagree. Fortaleza’s recent output, head-to-head dominance, and Boyaca Chico’s total attacking drought make the away side the stronger selection at those odds. The draw at 2.95 would require Boyaca Chico to find a goal, something they have not done in five games. Backing Fortaleza at 2.65 represents genuine value given the form gap.
Possible Starting Lineups
Boyaca Chico Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jhonier Alomia
- DF: Jefferson Mena, Sebastian Palma, Daniel Polanco, Sander Navarro
- MF: Juan Diaz, Sebastian Salazar, Yesus Cabrera, Cristian Blanco, Delio Ramírez
- FW: S. Mera
Gómez has been consistent with his 4-1-4-1 shape, using Juan Diaz as the deepest midfielder with Sebastian Salazar and Yesus Cabrera providing the central legs. S. Mera leads the line as the lone striker, and despite three goals in five games as a team across all competitions earlier in the year, the Clausura has been a complete blank. Felipe Cifuentes and I. Camargo are likely to feature from the bench or in wider roles depending on the coach’s approach.
Fortaleza Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Williams Barlasina
- DF: Joan Cajares, Harold Balanta, Juan Camilo Castillo, David Esteban Ramirez Pisciotti
- MF: Leonardo Pico, Yesid Díaz, Santiago Vivas Vélez, Italo Montano Cortes, Richardson Rivas
- FW: Teun Wilke
Fortaleza’s 4-2-3-1 is well established across the last five matches. Williams Barlasina in goal has made 15 saves, reflecting the team’s defensive workload. Leonardo Pico and Yesid Díaz anchor the double pivot, with Díaz also contributing an assist. Richardson Rivas, operating from a deeper midfield-forward role, is the key threat with two goals and seven shots in five games. Santiago Vivas Vélez drives forward from the left channel and has one assist. Juan Sebastian Herrera leads the line but has struggled to score, drawing 12 fouls instead, which should generate set-piece opportunities against Boyaca Chico.
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Fortaleza. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a Fortaleza win. Boyaca Chico are the worst-performing side in the Clausura by a significant margin, with zero points, zero goals, and ten conceded. Fortaleza arrive with three wins from four head-to-head meetings, better ball retention, more attacking volume, and a midfielder in Richardson Rivas who has found the net twice in recent weeks. The odds of 2.65 for the away win are generous given the context. A clean sheet for Fortaleza is also a realistic outcome, making “Fortaleza to win to nil” the hot tip for this fixture. We back Fortaleza to win, with under 3.5 goals as a reasonable accompaniment given that Boyaca Chico have shown almost no capacity to score.
