Rafael Nogueira
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Botafogo SP welcome Novorizontino at Estadio Santa Cruz with the two sides moving in opposite directions in the Série B table. The hosts sit 15th, just three points clear of the relegation zone, and arrive on the back of three straight defeats. Novorizontino travel in 8th spot, unbeaten in four of their last five and chasing a late push toward the promotion play-off pack. The gap in confidence is stark, and it shows in the goal output: Novorizontino have scored four times as many goals as Botafogo SP across their last five outings each.
Robson has been Novorizontino’s spearhead, netting three goals and adding an assist across his last five appearances, and his movement in behind will test a Botafogo backline that has leaked seven goals in five games. On the home side, Morelli offers the biggest creative threat in midfield, chipping in with a goal and consistent shot volume even as results have dried up around him.
Hot stat: Novorizontino have scored 12 goals in their last five matches against Botafogo SP’s tally of just 3, the widest attacking gap between any two sides meeting this round of Série B.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino prediction
We predict Novorizontino to leave Ribeirao Preto with the win. Their record of four victories in six matches over the last month, against Botafogo SP’s single win in the same span, points toward a comfortable away performance. The value sits with backing Novorizontino on the money line or, for a safer route, the Draw No Bet market given the odds still price this closer than the underlying form suggests.
Botafogo SP average 44 fouls and 8 yellow cards across their last five matches, a sign of a team that defends deep and reactively when pressure builds. Novorizontino commit more fouls at 62 over the same stretch but compensate with far greater ball progression, racking up 90 shots to Botafogo’s 68 and dominating the corner count 42 to 33. That territorial edge, paired with Botafogo’s leaky defense, is why we lean toward goals at both ends rather than a tight, low-scoring affair.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Novorizontino Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Botafogo SP’s 0-1 defeat to Nautico extended a run of three straight losses, and it fits a wider pattern: only 3 goals scored across their last five games against 7 conceded. The 21-point table position, sitting 15th with 25 points from 21 matches, reflects a side that struggles to create sustained pressure, and their reliance on set pieces (45 free kicks taken in five games without a direct goal) shows a lack of a cutting edge in open play.
Novorizontino’s 3-1 win over Avai was their fourth victory in five matches, a run that has lifted them to 8th on 33 points from 21 games, only two points off the top eight. Robson’s continued sharpness in front of goal and Luís Oyama’s control in midfield (2 assists, 8 interceptions in five games) have driven a side that has scored 12 goals and conceded just 3 in their last five, arguably the best attacking-defensive balance in the current form table.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Across the last eight meetings between these two, Novorizontino have dominated the scoresheet, and that trend is worth weighing heavily for this fixture.
| Statistic | Botafogo SP | Novorizontino |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 9 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Botafogo SP vs Novorizontino stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Novorizontino the favourite
- Moneyline Botafogo SP 2.99 | Novorizontino 2.41
- Draw 3.00
The market average puts Novorizontino as clear favourites despite playing away, with odds around 2.41 compared to 2.99 for the home win. That pricing lines up with the underlying form gap, and to be honest, we think the away price still has room given how one-sided the recent scoring trends have been. The draw at 3.00 looks fair as insurance given Botafogo’s tendency to grind out narrow results at home, but it is not where we see the value in this particular matchup.
Possible Starting Lineups
Botafogo SP possible starting eleven
- GK: Victor Souza
- DF: Patrick Brey, Gustavo Vilar dos Santos, Jonathan, Wallace
- MF: Rafael Gava, Matheus Sales, Morelli, Leandro Maciel, Kelvin Giacobe Alves dos Santos
- FW: José Hugo Sousa dos Santos
Cláudio Tencati has stuck with a 4-2-3-1 shape in five straight matches, and the personnel above reflects the players with the heaviest minutes load. Gustavo Vilar dos Santos stands out defensively with 10 interceptions in five games, while José Hugo Sousa dos Santos leads the line as the most shot-heavy forward on the roster with 9 attempts across the same stretch.
Novorizontino possible starting eleven
- GK: Jordi
- DF: Madson Ferreira dos Santos, Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho, Eduardo Brock, Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas
- MF: Luís Oyama, Juninho, Leonardo Naldi de Matos, Matheus Henrique Bianqui, Marlon
- FW: Robson
Enderson Moreira has kept faith in the same 4-2-3-1 setup, and Robson’s five straight starts up front justify his role as the focal point of the attack. Luís Oyama’s box-to-box output, 8 interceptions plus 2 assists, makes him the key link between defense and attack, and watching his passing range against Botafogo’s midfield will be worth tracking.
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Botafogo SP. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Our punters team backs Novorizontino to win this one, perhaps by a two-goal margin given how their attack has clicked recently against how often Botafogo SP concede. The 12 goals scored and only 3 conceded across Novorizontino’s last five matches is too strong a signal to ignore, and Botafogo’s three-game losing streak going into this fixture only adds to our conviction. We expect goals at both ends, a corner-heavy affair given Novorizontino’s territorial dominance, and an away win as the most probable final outcome.
