Botafogo SP vs CRB Prediction: 01.07.2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B Preview

Two teams sitting in the bottom half of the Série B table meet at Estadio Santa Cruz on July 1, with both sides desperate to arrest poor form. Botafogo SP has managed just one win in their last five matches, but CRB has been far worse, collecting zero wins in their last nine games. That stat alone frames the entire match: this is a contest between two struggling sides, and the pressure falls harder on the visitors. Midfielder Rafael Gava has been Botafogo SP’s most reliable ball-carrier in recent games, racking up 49 passes with the highest accuracy in the squad, and his ability to dictate tempo will be central to the home side’s build-up. For CRB, Fabio Alemão stands out at the back with 89 passes and an 86-pass accuracy in the last game, showing the visitors prefer to build from deep rather than play direct.

Hot stat: CRB registered just 14 total shots across their last five matches combined, compared to Botafogo SP’s 28. That is a striking difference in attacking output and suggests CRB’s attack has been almost completely shut down over recent weeks.

Botafogo SP vs CRB Prediction

Botafogo SP enters this match as the clear favorite on paper, and the underlying numbers back that up. They are 13th in the table with 12 points from 10 games, while CRB sit 18th with just 9 points from 11 games. The home side has twice the shots output of CRB over the last five matches, and they hold a meaningful corner kick advantage: 12 corners to CRB’s 3. At odds around 2.25–2.32, Botafogo SP represents solid value for a home win given CRB’s complete inability to win recently.

Both teams have been extremely low-scoring in recent games, with neither side netting a single goal across their last five matches each. Botafogo SP plays a 4-2-3-1 that gives them more attacking width, while CRB’s 4-3-3 has not produced goals despite nominally having three forwards. The total goals market strongly points to Under 2.5, and with CRB’s attack so blunt, BTTS looks unlikely. Botafogo SP commits 15 fouls per five-match aggregate compared to CRB’s 7, meaning the home side plays more physically and could disrupt CRB’s passing rhythm, which relies on clean build-up through Alemão and Pedro Castro.

We predict a narrow Botafogo SP home win, likely 1-0, with the corner market also offering value given the home side’s pressing style.

• Best bet: Botafogo SP to win (Home Win)
• Value pick: Under 2.5 goals
• Corners: Over 7.5 match corners

Team Analysis

Botafogo SP have drawn their last three matches in the Série B, posting 0-0 results against Ponte Preta, Athletic Club, and Goias before that run. Their only recent non-draw results were a 1-1 against Nautico and a 1-1 against Cuiaba. The team is not scoring freely but they are keeping games tight. Their 2-6-2 record over 10 league games reflects a side that has found a defensive floor but lacks a consistent attacking threat. Tencati’s 4-2-3-1 setup prioritizes midfield control, and with Rafael Gava and Morelli combining over 90 passes in the last game alone, the structure is there. The problem is converting that possession into shots on target.

CRB’s form is alarming. Seven losses and two draws in their last nine games, with zero wins. Their last five league fixtures produced 0-0 draws against Cuiaba and Ponte Preta, and 0-0 results against Sport Recife and Fortaleza, with a 0-0 against Operario PR also in that sequence. Eduardo Barroca’s 4-3-3 generates almost no shots: 14 total across five games. Vitor Caetano in goal made 6 saves in the last match, which tells its own story about how much pressure CRB were under defensively against Cuiaba. The visitors are not a threat going forward, and their 462 pass accuracy in the last game compared to 528 total passes suggests sloppy execution in the final third.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

The head-to-head record between these sides over the last four Série B meetings is fairly even, with CRB winning two and Botafogo SP winning one, plus one draw. CRB won 3-2 and 4-1 in two of those clashes, suggesting they have historically been capable of high-scoring wins over Botafogo SP. That said, current form makes a repeat of those scorelines extremely unlikely from the visitors.

🚨Check out our dedicated Botafogo SP vs CRB stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Botafogo SP the Favourite

• Moneyline Botafogo SP 2.32 (bcgame) | CRB 3.61 (Pinnacle)
• Draw 3.05 (Roobet)
• Over/Under Over 2.5 – approx 2.20 | Under 2.5 – approx 1.65
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes – approx 2.40 | No – approx 1.55

Botafogo SP’s implied probability from bookmakers sits at 41%, which feels slightly conservative given CRB’s catastrophic run of zero wins in nine. The draw at 31% implied probability is priced fairly given the number of 0-0 results both teams have produced recently. CRB at 27% implied probability and odds around 3.30–3.61 looks overpriced for a side that cannot score. Pinnacle offering 3.61 on CRB is the sharpest line available, and to be honest, backing Botafogo SP anywhere above 2.25 offers reasonable value. The Under 2.5 at roughly 1.65 is the safest play given the combined five-match goal tally of zero for both teams.

Possible Starting Lineups

Tencati is expected to line up in his preferred 4-2-3-1, with Morelli and Leandro Maciel as the double pivot providing defensive cover. Rafael Gava operates as the most technical presence in midfield and will be key to unlocking CRB’s low defensive block. Hygor leads the line and is the player most likely to get on the scoresheet if Botafogo SP create anything of note. Wallace at left back offers composure in possession, completing 58 passes in the last game.

Barroca’s 4-3-3 has Fabio Alemão as the main ball-playing center back, while Pedro Castro anchors the midfield with 57 passes and 2 interceptions in the last game. Mikael and Luiz Phellype offer some pace up front but have contributed very little in terms of shots or goal threat recently. Vitor Caetano between the sticks has been busy, making 6 saves in the last match, and will likely be tested again here. CRB’s low foul count of 7 in five games suggests they defend passively, which may allow Botafogo SP’s midfield runners space to operate.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

This match has the hallmarks of a tight, low-scoring affair. Both teams have gone five games without a goal, and while Botafogo SP at least generates shots (28 vs CRB’s 14), converting them has been a problem. CRB’s attack is functionally non-existent right now, and their winless run of nine games is not a statistical blip. We predict Botafogo SP to edge this 1-0 at Estadio Santa Cruz, with the home side’s superior shot volume and corner count eventually telling. Under 2.5 goals is the strongest market play here, and Botafogo SP to win to nil is the bold but well-supported call based on CRB’s complete lack of attacking output.

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