Rafael Nogueira
Botafogo SP and Athletic Club face off at Estadio Santa Cruz with both squads desperate to reverse poor winless runs. The hosts sit just above the relegation zone, while Athletic Club’s away form remains a concern. Botafogo SP have failed to win in their last five matches, but their defensive structure at home could make a difference. Athletic Club, despite a higher volume of shots and corner kicks, often struggle to convert chances into goals. Key players to watch: Morelli for Botafogo SP, who remains the main goal threat from midfield, and Lucas Belezi for Athletic Club, an influential defender in build-up play.
Hot stat: Athletic Club have attempted 51 shots and won 26 corners across their last five games, far exceeding Botafogo SP’s attacking numbers but with minimal end product.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto |
| 🗓️ Date: | 26.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Botafogo SP vs Athletic Club prediction
We predict a draw as the best value bet. Both sides are on winless streaks and lack attacking efficiency. Botafogo SP are compact at home but struggle to finish chances, while Athletic Club’s profligacy on the road continues. The high number of fouls and yellow cards from both teams suggest a disrupted rhythm, making a low-scoring, closely contested game highly likely.
Botafogo SP average 44 fouls and 7 yellow cards in their last five, while Athletic Club register even higher with 74 fouls and 11 yellows. This underlines both sides’ aggressive pressing and possible lack of discipline, likely resulting in frequent stoppages and limited clear-cut opportunities. Ball possession trends show Botafogo SP prefer a more cautious passing approach, while Athletic Club push forward but often lack precision in the final third.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Under 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Botafogo SP come off a 0-1 home defeat to Goias, failing to score and offering just 23 shots across their last five games. Their defensive line, led by Gustavo Vilar dos Santos and Patrick Brey, keeps matches tight but offers little attacking impetus. Morelli remains the standout in midfield, with the only recent goal and consistent box-to-box efforts. Their last few games, all tight affairs, reveal a side struggling for invention in the final third.
Athletic Club’s recent 1-1 draw with Juventude reflects their season: plenty of attacking intent (51 shots last five games), yet only four goals scored. Lucas Belezi’s play from defense aids ball progression, but the lack of a consistent finisher up front continues to undermine their efforts. Athletic Club’s high foul count and two red cards in five matches hint at frustration and lack of composure.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Botafogo SP | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 4 |
| Total shots | 23 | 51 |
| Free kicks | 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks | 17 | 26 |
| Total fouls | 44 | 74 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 77.5 | 81.7 |
| Interceptions | 27 | 46 |
| Offsides | 5 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Botafogo SP vs Athletic Club stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Botafogo SP the favourite
- Moneyline Botafogo SP 2.04 | Athletic Club 4.00
- Draw 3.10
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.55 | Under 2.5 1.44
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.30 | No 1.54
Bookmakers clearly favour Botafogo SP at home, but the low win rate of both clubs signals uncertainty. The odds on under 2.5 goals and BTTS No reflect both teams’ recent inefficiency in attack and high defensive focus. Athletic Club’s long odds mirror their away struggles and limited scoring threat.
Possible Starting Lineups
Botafogo SP possible starting eleven
- GK: Victor Souza
- DF: Patrick Brey, Gustavo Vilar dos Santos, Wallace, Felipe Vieira Augusto
- MF: Morelli, Matheus Sales, Rafael Gava
- FW: Kelvin Giacobe Alves dos Santos, Luiz Guilherme, Guilherme Queiróz
This predicted 4-2-3-1 lineup uses Botafogo SP’s most reliable defenders and midfielders for stability. Victor Souza retains the goalkeeper slot. Morelli’s box-to-box energy anchors the midfield. Kelvin Giacobe and Luiz Guilherme will be tasked with providing pace and width. Expect a structured, compact side, prioritising defensive solidity over risk-taking. Morelli is the one to watch for his late runs into the box.
Athletic Club possible starting eleven
- GK: Luan Polli
- DF: Lucas Belezi, Diogo Batista de Souza, Douglas da Silva Santos, Jhonatan
- MF: Kauan Rodrigues da Silva, Maswel Ananias Silva, Gustavo Cesar Mendonca Gravino
- FW: Dixon Vera, Ruan Lucas de Assis, substitute F
Athletic Club likely stick to 4-2-3-1, their preferred setup. Luan Polli starts in goal, supported by Belezi and Diogo Batista in defense. Kauan Rodrigues anchors the midfield, while Dixon Vera and Ruan Lucas provide attacking impetus. Watch Lucas Belezi for driving play from the back. Expect a high-tempo, pressing style but with risk of losing shape, particularly if chasing a result.
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Athletic Club. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a hard-fought draw with few goals, reflecting both teams’ lack of attacking quality and disciplined, sometimes over-aggressive, defending. Perhaps the best value lies with under 2.5 goals and both teams not to score. To be honest, neither side convinces us as a clear winner, and our confidence in the draw is reinforced by both teams’ consistent inability to convert chances and their aggressive, stop-start play. Expect a tactical, physical contest with a heavy midfield battle.
