Rafael Nogueira
Botafogo PB host Confiança at Estádio José Américo de Almeida Filho in a Série C clash that carries real urgency for both sides. Botafogo sit 13th with 12 points from 10 games, carrying a negative goal difference and a winless streak that has stretched across multiple rounds. Confiança are in an even tighter spot in 19th, with just 7 points from 8 matches.
The hosts are heavy favourites here, and the head-to-head record backs that view — Botafogo beat Confiança 3-0 in the equivalent fixture last season. The visiting side has conceded in all but one of their last five matches, which makes the home team’s attack a genuine threat. Watch Botafogo’s forward line to press a Confiança backline that has been leaking goals, and keep an eye on Confiança’s midfield shape — if they cannot control possession, this could turn into a long evening for the visitors.
Hot stat: Confiança have lost five of their eight league games this season and have been shut out in three of their last five matches, scoring just once in their last two outings.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série C 2026, Regular Season |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Botafogo PB vs Confiança Prediction
Botafogo PB are the clear value pick here. They sit higher in the table, have the home advantage, and have already beaten Confiança 3-0 in this exact fixture last season. The bookmakers price them at around 1.83–1.88, which reflects a near 49% implied probability. Given Confiança’s defensive fragility and poor away form, that looks fair or even slightly generous for the home side.
Botafogo’s form over the last 30 days shows a win, and their recent run includes a 2-0 victory over Anapolis and a 2-1 win against Maringa FC. Their main concern is inconsistency — they have dropped points in six of their ten league games and scored only 12 goals. Confiança have found the net just five times in eight league outings, and their last result was a 1-2 home defeat to Barra.
Botafogo play at home, carry better overall quality, and face a side that has failed to score in three of their last five games. A low-scoring home win is the most likely outcome. We predict Botafogo PB to win with under 2.5 goals in the match, though the home side’s set-piece threat could push the total higher. BTTS looks unlikely given Confiança’s attacking output.
- Best bet: Botafogo PB to win (moneyline)
- Value secondary: Under 2.5 goals
- BTTS: No
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Botafogo PB to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Botafogo PB’s recent campaign has been uneven. Their last five league games produced two wins, zero draws, and three losses. The most recent result was a 2-0 win over bottom-side Anapolis, and before that they beat Maringa FC 2-1. The losses came against Ituano (0-1), Inter de Limeira (0-1), and a damaging 1-3 defeat to Maranhao. The pattern suggests Botafogo can beat weaker opposition but struggle against organised mid-table sides. At home, they should have enough to control this match.
Confiança have taken just 7 points from 8 league games, placing them second from bottom. Their last five results include a 1-2 loss to Barra at home, a 0-0 draw with Figueirense, a 2-1 win over Maranhao, a heavy 0-3 defeat to Gremio, and a 0-1 loss to Ituano. The 0-3 loss to Gremio stands out — that opponent carries a world club ranking of 162, indicating Confiança were severely outclassed. Their away record is poor, and they have scored in only two of their last five games.
The two sides also drew 3-3 in the 2024 Série C meeting, with bookmakers having favoured Botafogo PB at 55% that day. The 2025 encounter was a dominant 3-0 home win for Botafogo, reinforcing their edge in this fixture.
🚨Check out our dedicated Botafogo PB vs Confiança stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Botafogo PB the Favourite
- Moneyline Botafogo PB 1.83–1.88 | Confiança 3.80–4.46
- Draw 2.97–3.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 — | Under 2.5 —
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes — | No —
Pinnacle offer the sharpest lines, pricing Confiança at 4.46 — reflecting genuine doubt about their ability to perform here. The draw at 3.00–3.25 is priced fairly given Botafogo’s inconsistency, but backing the hosts at 1.83–1.88 still carries solid value when you factor in home advantage, the head-to-head record, and Confiança’s poor scoring rate. The wide spread on Confiança across bookmakers (3.80 to 4.46) suggests some uncertainty, but the direction is clear.
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Confianca. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Botafogo PB carry more quality, home advantage, and a proven edge over Confiança in recent meetings. The visitors have scored just five goals in eight league games, and their last away performance against Gremio ended in a 0-3 loss. Botafogo’s attack found the net twice in each of their last two wins, and they face a defence that has conceded eight goals in eight games. We predict a Botafogo PB win to nil, with the match staying under 2.5 goals. The home side’s set pieces and attacking transitions should be enough to settle this without Confiança posing a serious scoring threat.
