Borussia Dortmund vs Roma Prediction: 15 August 2026 International Club Friendly

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Two of Europe’s more recognizable clubs meet at Signal Iduna Park in what looks like a genuinely competitive pre-season test. Borussia Dortmund, under Niko Kovac, arrive off a strong domestic summer run and are the bookmakers’ slight favorites. Roma, now managed by Gian Piero Gasperini, have had a patchier August so far, but Paulo Dybala’s form in front of goal is enough to keep things interesting. The interesting wrinkle here is that Dortmund have already beaten Arsenal 3-2 in their most recent outing, showing they are not coasting through these friendlies.

Dortmund’s most consistent performer in this pre-season has been Jobe Bellingham, who has appeared in all five of their last matches and accumulated 278 passes at high accuracy, making him the engine of Kovac’s midfield build-up. On the other side, Paulo Dybala has been in sharp touch for Roma, registering three goals and one assist across four appearances, with nine total shots and a direct involvement in almost everything Roma create going forward.

Hot stat: Borussia Dortmund have attempted 51 total shots across their last five matches compared to Roma’s 37, a difference that underlines Dortmund’s more aggressive attacking output heading into this fixture.

Borussia Dortmund vs Roma Prediction

Dortmund at home, with a 60% win rate over the last 30 days against Roma’s 25%, is a reasonable favorite. The German side’s recent 3-2 win over Arsenal shows they can score freely and handle pressure. Roma’s last two away results in this pre-season have been poor: a 0-3 loss to Brighton and a 1-4 defeat to Cardiff City. Those results are hard to ignore.

We think a Dortmund win is the most logical outcome. Their shot volume, pass accuracy, and home advantage all point in the same direction. Roma have the individual quality to threaten, especially through Dybala, but their defensive record on the road in this pre-season is not convincing.

Dortmund average 52 total fouls and 55 free kicks across their last five matches, which is notably higher than Roma’s 36 fouls and 45 free kicks. This suggests Dortmund play with more physical intensity, which could disrupt Roma’s rhythm early. Roma’s pass accuracy across five matches sits at roughly 81%, while Dortmund’s is closer to 87%, giving the hosts a clear structural edge in possession play. Both teams have scored eight goals in their last five outings, so goals are expected from both sides.

Team Analysis

Borussia Dortmund have won three and lost two of their last five matches. The defeats came against Cerezo Osaka (0-1) and Dusseldorf (1-2), but both were early in the pre-season schedule. Since then, Dortmund have beaten Oberhausen 3-1, FC Tokyo 1-0, and most recently Arsenal 3-2, which is a solid benchmark result against a top-ten ranked club globally. The Arsenal win in particular showed Kovac’s side can manage a high-tempo game and convert chances under pressure. Fábio Silva, Mathis Albert, and Samuele Inacio have all contributed goals across the squad, suggesting Dortmund are not relying on a single striker.

Roma’s recent form tells a more complicated story. They beat Newport 4-1 and Verona 2-0 earlier in pre-season, but sandwiched around those results are a 1-4 loss to Cardiff City, a 3-3 draw with Cannes, and most recently a 0-3 defeat to Brighton. Gasperini’s side have conceded eight goals in their last three matches, and the defensive shape under his typically aggressive pressing system has not yet clicked. Dybala and Matias Soule provide enough creativity to cause problems, but the back line, featuring Evan Ndicka and Wesley Vinícius França Lima, has been inconsistent. Lima also carries a red card across these five matches, which adds a disciplinary concern.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Borussia Dortmund vs Roma stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Borussia Dortmund the favourite

• Moneyline Borussia Dortmund 2.10 – 2.21 | Roma 2.65 – 3.04
• Draw 3.60 – 3.90
• Over/Under Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes | No

The odds reflect the bookmakers’ 42% win probability for Dortmund, which is fair given the home advantage and their stronger recent form. Roma at 2.65–3.04 represents some value if you believe Gasperini can organize a more disciplined defensive setup, but their away results this pre-season make that a risky assumption. We honestly think the Dortmund win at around 2.10–2.20 is the most grounded pick, and the over 2.5 goals line looks well-supported given both teams have averaged over 1.5 goals per game in their last five outings each.

Possible Starting Lineups

Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven

Patrick Drewes has started five of the last five matches and is clearly the first-choice goalkeeper under Kovac. The back four picks itself based on appearances, with Filippo Mane and Kouakou Joane Gadou both logging significant minutes. Jobe Bellingham is the midfield constant and the player who dictates Dortmund’s tempo. Fábio Silva leads the attack with eight total shots across five games, and Mathis Albert’s ability to drift wide gives Dortmund an extra dimension. Kovac has favored a 4-2-3-1 shape, so expect Lerma and Bellingham to sit as the double pivot with Nmecha operating in the number ten role.

Roma possible starting eleven

Mile Svilar has been Roma’s most-used goalkeeper across these matches and should start. The back three or four under Gasperini’s 3-4-2-1 system likely features Ndicka, Mancini, and Hermoso as the central defenders, with Rensch and Wesley Vinícius França Lima as wing-backs, though Lima’s red card history this pre-season is a concern. Bryan Cristante anchors the midfield. Dybala is the player to watch: three goals and one assist in four games makes him Roma’s most dangerous outlet, and any lapse in Dortmund’s defensive concentration could be punished by him quickly.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Borussia Dortmund are the pick here. Their 60% win rate in the last 30 days, combined with home advantage at Signal Iduna Park and a recent 3-2 win over Arsenal, sets them apart from a Roma side that has conceded three or more goals in two of their last three matches. Dortmund’s interception count of 47 across five games compared to Roma’s 20 tells you something about their defensive engagement and pressing intensity.

We think Dortmund win with both teams scoring. Dybala is too good to be completely shut out, but Roma’s defensive frailty on the road makes it hard to back them for anything more than a goal. A 2-1 or 3-1 scoreline for Dortmund feels like the most likely outcome, and over 2.5 goals looks like a solid market to back alongside the home win.

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