Levi Rothermund
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The German Super Cup Final brings together the country’s two biggest clubs at Signal Iduna Park on 22 August 2026. Bayern Munich arrive as heavy favorites, and honestly, the form table backs that up — five wins from six in the last 30 days, against just three for Dortmund. Niko Kovac’s side are not without quality, and playing at home in front of the Yellow Wall gives them a real edge on atmosphere. Still, Kompany’s Bayern have been relentless this year, winning 81% of their 37 matches. The last four head-to-head meetings have produced goals from both sides every single time, which tells you something about the kind of game this is likely to be.
Two players worth watching closely: Luis Díaz has been in sharp form for Bayern, scoring three goals in four appearances across the last five matches, and he carries a constant threat in transition. For Dortmund, Jobe Bellingham has been the engine in midfield, logging 376 minutes across five games and accumulating the highest pass volume in the squad. He will need to be at his best to keep Bayern’s creative players quiet.
Hot stat: Bayern Munich scored 15 goals in a single match against Rottach-Egern in their recent pre-season fixture, which inflates their five-match total to 11 goals. Strip that out, and their scoring output against competitive opposition — RB Leipzig (3-1), Aston Villa (2-1), Heidenheim (4-2) — still tells a story of consistent attacking efficiency.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Super Cup 2026 — Final |
| 🏟 Venue: | Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund |
| 🗓️ Date: | 22.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:30 CEST |
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Bayern Munich are the clear pick here. They have been dominant for most of 2026, winning 30 of 37 matches, and they come into this final with momentum. Dortmund have been inconsistent — their form sequence shows a team that alternates between good and poor spells without much stability. Losing to Cerezo Osaka and Düsseldorf in recent weeks is not the preparation you want heading into a Super Cup Final against the best team in Germany.
We think a Bayern win is the most logical outcome, and the value in backing them is reasonable given the odds available. The bigger question is whether Dortmund can score. All four of the last head-to-head meetings produced goals from both sides, and Dortmund are at home with a crowd behind them. We lean toward both teams scoring, with Bayern winning by a single goal margin as the most probable scenario.
On the style of play: Dortmund commit more fouls per five matches (55 total) compared to Bayern (51), and they have lower pass accuracy overall. Bayern’s passing numbers are sharper and their interception count is considerably lower at 24 versus Dortmund’s 52, suggesting Bayern allow opponents less of the ball rather than simply winning it back through pressure. That passing superiority tends to translate into control in big matches. Dortmund’s corner count matches Bayern’s at 20, so set-piece situations could be a factor — both teams show equal threat from dead-ball situations.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bayern Munich to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Borussia Dortmund’s recent run has been mixed. They beat Roma 2-2 in their most recent outing — a draw, not a win — and prior to that they defeated Arsenal 3-2 in an open, high-scoring match. Those results against strong European opposition show Dortmund can compete at the top level. The issues come against weaker sides: they lost to Cerezo Osaka and Düsseldorf, which are the kind of results that undermine confidence before a major final. Across their last five matches, they produced only seven goals from 49 shots, and their pass accuracy of 2,197 out of 2,521 attempted passes reflects a team that loses the ball more than they would like.
Bayern Munich’s last match was a 4-2 win over 1. FC Heidenheim, continuing a run that also included a 3-1 victory over RB Leipzig and a 2-1 win against Aston Villa. The Aston Villa result stands out — beating a side ranked ninth in the world is a meaningful benchmark. Bayern have won five of their last six matches, with their only loss coming against Leipzig earlier in the sequence. Their attacking depth is evident: across five matches, they generated 65 shots and scored 11 goals, with multiple players contributing rather than relying on one source. Felipe Chávez has chipped in with two goals from midfield, and Nathaniel Brown has added two from defense, which gives Kompany’s side unpredictability in how the goals come.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met four times recently across Bundesliga fixtures, with Bayern winning two, Dortmund winning one, and one draw at Signal Iduna Park.
| Statistic | Borussia Dortmund | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 49 | 65 |
| Free kicks | 57 | 27 |
| Corner kicks | 20 | 20 |
| Total fouls | 55 | 51 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 87 | 90 |
| Interceptions | 52 | 24 |
| Offsides | 6 | 9 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bayern Munich the favourite
- Moneyline Borussia Dortmund 4.92 | Bayern Munich 1.57
- Draw 4.60
The bookmakers’ average puts Bayern at 58% win probability, and the market odds reflect that clearly. Pinnacle’s 4.92 on Dortmund is the best available for a home win, while Bayern sit around 1.57-1.68 across most books. The draw is priced at roughly 4.00-4.60, which feels about right for a final where Bayern are expected to press for the win. We think the Bayern price around 1.65 represents fair value rather than great value, but it is the most defensible bet on the board. The draw is not a market we would target here — Bayern’s recent record shows zero draws in their last six matches, and Kompany sets his team up to win rather than absorb.
Possible Starting Lineups
Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven
- GK: Alexander Meyer
- DF: Kouakou Joane Gadou, Luca Reggiani, Filippo Mane, Ramy Bensebaini
- MF: Jobe Bellingham, Felix Nmecha, Justin Lerma, Konstantinos Karetsas
- FW: Fábio Silva, Serhou Guirassy
Kovac has used a 4-4-2 shape most consistently across recent matches, and this selection reflects the players with the highest appearance counts. Alexander Meyer has featured in all five of the tracked matches and is the clear first-choice keeper ahead of Gregor Kobel. Jobe Bellingham is the most important player in this lineup — his pass volume and defensive work rate in midfield make him the fulcrum of how Dortmund build. Fábio Silva leads the forward line alongside Guirassy, with both carrying a goal threat despite modest returns recently. Konstantinos Karetsas is one to watch; he has scored once in two appearances and creates danger from advanced midfield positions.
Bayern Munich possible starting eleven
- GK: Jonas Urbig
- DF: Jonathan Tah, Kim Min-Jae, Hiroki Ito, Nathaniel Brown
- MF: Aleksandar Pavlović, Tom Bischof, Arijon Ibrahimovic, Felipe Chávez
- FW: Luis Díaz, Harry Kane
Kompany has leaned on a 3-4-2-1 in recent matches, but the personnel available suggests a back four is also viable. Jonas Urbig has started four of the five tracked matches and appears to be ahead of Neuer in the current rotation. Jonathan Tah and Kim Min-Jae anchor the defense, with Kim having scored once from the back line. Luis Díaz is the most dangerous attacking player in this squad right now — three goals in four appearances, and he plays with direct pace that will test Dortmund’s fullbacks. Arijon Ibrahimovic adds creativity and goal threat from midfield, while Felipe Chávez’s two goals from four appearances make him a secondary scoring option that opponents can underestimate.
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Borussia Dortmund. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Bayern Munich win this. The gap in consistency between the two sides over 2026 is real, and the head-to-head record from the last two Bundesliga seasons shows Bayern taking four points from the last four meetings. Dortmund are capable of scoring — every recent meeting produced goals at both ends — and playing at Signal Iduna Park gives them a fighting chance of putting one past Urbig. We think the match ends 2-1 to Bayern, with both teams scoring and the game going over 2.5 goals.
The best value bet is Bayern Munich to win and both teams to score. It combines the most likely outcome with the historical pattern of these fixtures, and it gives the bet a way to land even if Dortmund grab an early goal. Backing Bayern straight on the moneyline at around 1.65 is also a clean, straightforward option if you prefer simplicity.
