Bolivar vs Guabira Prediction: June 16 2026 Bolivian Professional Football League

Bolivar welcome Guabira to the Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz for a Bolivian Professional Football League clash on June 16, 2026. Despite sitting fourth in the standings with 14 points from eight games, Bolivar have been one of the most prolific sides in the league, scoring 19 goals, the highest tally among all teams. The curious wrinkle here is that Bolivar have not won in their last six matches across all competitions, a run that includes three losses and three draws, making this a peculiar fixture given how heavily the bookmakers still favor the home side. Guabira, on the other hand, have quietly put together a strong recent run, winning three of their last four matches. Robson Matheus has been a standout for Bolivar, contributing one goal and one assist across the last five matches while averaging the most shots in the squad. For Guabira, A. Moreno has been the most direct attacking threat, netting once in just 90 minutes of action.

Hot stat: Guabira have scored in four of their last five matches and claimed back-to-back wins over SA Bulo Bulo and Nacional Potosi heading into this fixture, a level of momentum that Bolivar simply cannot match right now.

Bolivar vs Guabira Prediction

The best value in this match does not lie with Bolivar on the moneyline at 1.17-1.18. Those odds reflect very little return for meaningful risk, especially given Bolivar’s winless streak across six games. Guabira’s form over the last 30 days is genuinely impressive, three wins and one draw from four matches, and they arrive here with confidence. We predict a Guabira win or draw double chance market as the smart play, given the visitors’ momentum and Bolivar’s inability to close out games recently.

Bolivar average 871 out of 1089 total passes completed in their last five matches, showing a possession-focused approach under Alejandro Restrepo. Their 4-2-3-1 setup tends to dominate the ball but has not converted that control into wins lately. Guabira, in a compact 4-1-4-1, commit more fouls (28 vs Bolivar’s 23) and have a lower pass accuracy, suggesting they absorb pressure and hit on the counter. That style suits an away fixture at altitude in La Paz, where Guabira’s direct approach could exploit Bolivar’s defensive fragility, as the home side has conceded nine goals in eight league games. Both teams have scored in three of Guabira’s last five matches, and Bolivar’s defense has been porous enough to make goals on both ends a reasonable expectation.

Team Analysis

Bolivar’s recent record is a genuine concern. They lost 1-3 to Independiente Rivadavia and 1-2 to Fluminense RJ in their most recent outings, and were beaten 2-3 at home by Universitario de Vinto, a side ranked far below them globally. Their only positive results in the last five league matches were a 1-1 draw with Nacional Potosi and a 0-0 stalemate with Blooming. Across those five games, they managed just 30 total shots and 14 corners, decent attacking output but clearly not converting. The defensive numbers are the alarm bell: nine goals conceded in eight league games and three consecutive losses in their most recent competitive fixtures.

Guabira enter this match in far better shape. Their most recent result was a 2-1 win over SA Bulo Bulo, following a 2-1 victory against Nacional Potosi. Those back-to-back wins came after a 2-2 draw with Oriente Petrolero, where they showed resilience after going behind. The 3-0 win over GV San Jose earlier in the run underlines that this squad can score freely when given space. Their only blemish in recent weeks was a 2-4 defeat to Aurora. With 14 goals scored in nine league games, they average well over a goal per match and have the firepower to trouble a Bolivar defense that has been leaking regularly.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Bolivar vs Guabira stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Bolivar the Favourite

• Moneyline Bolivar 1.17-1.18 | Guabira 10.00-11.00
• Draw 6.25-7.00
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

The moneyline odds on Bolivar at 1.17 represent very poor value. Bookmakers assign them a 78% win probability, but their current six-match winless run makes that figure look generous. Guabira at 10.00-11.00 is an extreme price for a team that has won three of their last four games. The draw at 6.25-7.00 is the most interesting line on the board, as Bolivar’s inability to win recently makes a stalemate a more realistic outcome than the odds suggest. We would not back Bolivar at these prices.

Possible Starting Lineups

Bolivar Possible Starting Eleven

Alejandro Restrepo is expected to stick with his 4-2-3-1 shape. Carlos Lampe is the first-choice goalkeeper with 16 saves across the last three appearances. Xavier Arreaga anchors the backline with the most interceptions among defenders. Robson Matheus is the key creative outlet in midfield with eight shots and 10 free kicks in five matches, and Martín Cauteruccio leads the line after scoring once in three appearances. Dorny Romero and Lucas Chavez provide depth options from the bench.

Guabira Possible Starting Eleven

Leonardo Eguez lines up in a 4-1-4-1 that prioritizes defensive shape and compact midfield lines. Gastón Gómez has made five saves in two matches and will be tested against Bolivar’s volume of shots. Thiago Ribeiro and Rafinha cover the most ground in midfield, with Rafinha providing the key assist in recent matches. A. Moreno is the most direct threat in the final third, and Pedro, despite limited minutes, scored in his only appearance and could start or be a game-changing option from the bench.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

To be honest, this is one of those matches where the odds tell one story and the form tells another. Bolivar at 1.17 should be a near-certainty, but their six-match winless streak, three losses in their last six, and a defense that has conceded nine league goals make that price dangerous. Guabira arrive with three wins from four, a compact defensive system, and the confidence of consecutive victories. The only head-to-head data available shows Bolivar won 4-0 in the Apertura 2025, but that Bolivar side was clearly a different proposition to the one currently stalling in fourth place.

We predict the match ends with goals on both sides, Guabira scoring at least once against a leaky Bolivar backline, and the total going over 2.5 goals. The double chance on Guabira (draw or win) sits at the core of our recommended play. Bolivar’s possession and shot volume will generate corners, so over 8.5 corners is also well-supported by their recent average of 14 corners across five matches combined with Guabira’s pressing style. Back the visitors to at minimum avoid defeat.

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