Rafael Nogueira
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Group F of the AFCON 2027 qualifiers opened with tight results for both sides, a draw for Benin against Burkina Faso and a comfortable 3-1 win for Mauritania over Central Africa. That single victory already puts Aritz López Garai’s side top of the table on goal difference, while Gernot Rohr’s Benin sit level on points but with a far shakier attacking record behind them. The interesting wrinkle here is the gap in output: Mauritania have out-shot Benin nearly three to one across their last five matches combined, a stat that should worry the hosts more than the bookmakers’ odds suggest.
Aboubakary Koita drove Mauritania’s win over Central Africa with seven shots and the game’s opening goal, and he looks like the man most likely to trouble Benin’s back line again. On the other side, Aiyegun Tosin remains Benin’s most reliable outlet, having scored in the draw with Burkina Faso off just two attempts, a return that shows he doesn’t need many chances to make them count.
Hot stat: Mauritania have fired 19 shots across their last five outings compared to Benin’s seven, almost a threefold gap that lines up with the visitors’ extra goal (3 to 1) over the same stretch.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Africa Cup of Nations 2027, Qualifier Group F |
| 🗓️ Date: | 29.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Benin vs Mauritania prediction
We predict Mauritania to come away with the win, and perhaps the more telling detail is that the market still has Benin as favourites despite the visitors sitting top of the group. That gap between the table and the odds is exactly where the value lies. Mauritania’s shot volume, their unbeaten run against Niger and Angola before the current qualifier, and a defense that has conceded just once in three of its last five matches all point toward a side playing with more control than their price suggests.
Benin commit more fouls (15 to Mauritania’s 10 across the last five matches) and generate far fewer shots, a combination that tends to produce a side chasing the game rather than dictating it. Mauritania’s passing volume (452 attempts to Benin’s 273) backs up a possession-heavy approach that should let them dictate tempo in Bergen. Both teams picked up a single yellow card apiece in their most recent matches, so card counts look unlikely to swing this one, the difference will come down to who controls the ball.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Mauritania Draw No Bet |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Benin’s form since the summer reads two wins, two draws and a heavy loss, the low point being a 1-5 collapse against Togo before steadying with a 1-1 draw at home to Niger and another stalemate against Burkina Faso to open the qualifiers. That last match summed up their season, a side that can compete for spells but concedes soft goals against organized opponents. In our preview of Burkina Faso vs Benin we backed the hosts for a two-goal margin win, and the 1-1 draw went against that call, Benin held firm defensively when it mattered most.
Mauritania have been the more consistent side, winning their last two outright, a 1-0 over Niger and the 3-1 dismantling of Central Africa that opened their qualifying campaign. Aboubakary Koita’s involvement in that win, seven shots and a goal, gives them a focal point Benin will need a specific plan for. In our preview of Mauritania vs Central Africa we called a low-scoring home win, and the 3-1 result delivered the victory but went well past the tight scoreline and clean sheet we favored.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Benin and Mauritania have no recent competitive meetings on record between them, this qualifier represents the first meaningful test of their current squads against each other.
🚨Check out our dedicated Benin vs Mauritania stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Benin the favourite
- Moneyline Benin 2.35 | Mauritania 3.25
- Draw 2.72
The market leans Benin despite Mauritania’s superior recent output, a gap we think is too generous toward the hosts. Books are pricing home advantage and Benin’s slightly better World Ranking heavily, but the underlying shot and pass numbers favor the away side. To be honest, backing Mauritania with a draw safety net looks like the smarter way to play these odds rather than a straight moneyline bet.
Possible Starting Lineups
Benin possible starting eleven
- GK: Marcel Dandjinou
- DF: Yohan Roche, Mohamed Tijani, Tamimou Ouorou, Charlemagne Azongnitode
- MF: Junior Olaitan, Sessi D’Almeida, Imourane Hassane, Rodolfo Aloko, Yamirou Ouorou
- FW: Aiyegun Tosin
Rohr’s 4-2-3-1 relies on Olaitan and D’Almeida to shield the back four while Hassane roams behind Tosin. Tosin is the one to watch, he’s scored on minimal shots and gives Benin their only genuine goal threat.
Mauritania possible starting eleven
- GK: Mamadou Diop
- DF: Lamine Ba, Jordan Lefort, Aly Abeid, Nouh Mohamed El Abd
- MF: Bodda Mouhsine, Oumar Ngom, Djeidi Gassama, Dawda Camara Sankharé, Idrissa Thiam
- FW: Aboubakary Koita
López Garai’s 4-1-4-1 gives Mouhsine the lone pivot role, freeing Ngom and the wide forwards to support Koita, who leads the line as the visitors’ clear focal point. Ba and Lefort both logged full 90 minutes recently and look set to anchor the back line again.
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Mauritania. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a narrow away win or a share of the points, with Mauritania’s superior shot volume and cleaner recent form giving them the edge over a Benin side still searching for defensive consistency. Goals should stay limited given both teams’ modest attacking returns in their last five matches, one goal for Benin against three for Mauritania, so a low-scoring outcome around 1-2 or a tight 1-1 looks the realistic range. Backing Mauritania Draw No Bet covers the value angle without exposure to a draw that remains a live possibility given Benin’s stubborn defensive record at home.
