Benfica (w) vs Paris Saint Germain (w) Prediction: 17.12.2025 UEFA Women's Champions League 2025/26 Preview

On 17 December 2025, Benfica (w) will host Paris Saint Germain (w) in what is effectively a battle for pride at Brann Stadion, Bergen, as both teams have struggled in this season’s UEFA Women’s Champions League League Phase. While both sides share identical records in the group—0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses—recent form tips the scale slightly in PSG’s favor, who have demonstrated increased attacking prowess in their domestic fixtures.

Two players stand out ahead of this clash: for Benfica, forward Chandra Davidson has shown a knack for capitalizing on limited chances, while for PSG, striker Romee Leuchter is in outstanding goal-scoring form with three goals in her last five appearances. These two have the potential to turn the match on its head.

Hot stat: Paris Saint Germain (w) have managed to score 12 goals in their last five matches—quadruple Benfica’s tally—a key indicator of PSG’s offensive advantage going into this encounter.

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Benfica (w) vs Paris Saint Germain (w) prediction

The best value play for this matchup is to side with Paris Saint Germain (w) in the Asian Handicap ‘Draw No Bet’ market. The reasoning is clear: PSG (w) have a much stronger goal return, more attacking threats, and improved recent domestic form compared to a Benfica (w) side still looking for a win in 2025. While both teams are near the bottom of the group, PSG’s ability to create and finish chances, led by the likes of Leuchter, should see them edge this tight contest.

Both sides average a high number of fouls and yellow cards in the group stage, pointing towards a potentially scrappy and physical contest. Benfica’s total of 20 fouls and two yellows over their last five games reflects a defense under duress, while PSG’s 60 fouls and 12 yellows highlights their aggressive pressing style. However, Benfica’s higher passing numbers (601 completed in their recent match) indicate they can maintain possession, but they often lack penetration. PSG’s direct play and corner count (35 in five matches) suggest their attack will find more opportunities.

Team Analysis

Benfica (w) Recent Games:
Benfica (w) have struggled in the League Phase with a solitary point from a 1-1 draw against Twente (w). Their last match ended in a 1-3 home defeat to Barcelona (w), where they managed respectable ball retention but rarely looked threatening in attack. Benfica’s defense often found itself overwhelmed, resorting to fouls (20 in the last five games), and they’ve lacked offensive bite, scoring just one goal in their last three outings. The 4-3-3 setup offers width but hasn’t yielded results against higher-quality opposition.

Paris Saint Germain (w) Recent Games:
PSG (w) approach this fixture with a sense of frustration, as their only point in the League Phase came from a 0-0 draw with Leuven. Yet, domestically their form is more encouraging, having scored 12 goals in their last five games, including a 5-1 rout over Marseille and a 4-1 win over St Etienne. The 4-2-3-1 formation has enhanced their attacking diversity. Statistically, they have outperformed Benfica (w) in almost every key department: total shots, corners, and goals. Defensive lapses remain a concern, but their offensive firepower is undeniable.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Benfica (w) vs Paris Saint Germain (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: PSG (w) the favourite

• Moneyline Benfica (w) 3.80 | Paris Saint Germain (w) 1.95
• Draw 3.25
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.77
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.11 | No 1.62

Despite both teams sitting at the bottom of the group with similar records, the oddsmakers rightfully favor PSG (w) due to superior recent attacking output and higher-quality depth in their roster. The odds on PSG (w) reflect expectations of their direct style overpowering a Benfica side short on confidence. The draw carries some appeal based on both teams’ defensive frailties, but PSG’s consistency in the final third justifies their slight favoritism.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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My take on the Match

This match is set up for PSG (w) to play to their attacking strengths, and their recent scoring form should be decisive. Benfica (w) have shown spirit but lack the defensive solidity and attacking edge required at this level. My main pick is PSG (w) Draw No Bet, maximizing safety on the wager, with a recommendation on under 2.5 goals given both teams’ struggles in front of goal in Europe. Expect PSG (w) to be on the front foot, but a competitive, nervy contest should be in store given the stakes.

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