Rafael Nogueira
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Benfica welcome Vitoria Guimaraes to Estádio da Luz sitting third in the table, just five points off leaders Porto, and riding a run of six wins from their last seven games. Vitoria arrive in the opposite direction, 14th, with only one win from their last three outings and a goal difference of minus three after seven rounds. The inside angle worth flagging: these sides have met four times since late 2024, and Benfica have won every single one without conceding a goal, outscoring Vitoria 10-0 across those meetings. History and current form point the same direction here.
Vangelis Pavlidis has scored in back-to-back appearances and remains Benfica’s focal point up front, while Heorhii Sudakov’s work between the lines gives the hosts a second scoring outlet behind him. For Vitoria, Gonçalo Nogueira has been their most reliable attacking presence recently and carries most of their goal threat on his own.
Hot stat: Benfica have netted 22 goals in seven league matches, the best attacking return in the Primeira Liga this season, while Vitoria Guimaraes have managed just 5 goals in the same number of games, the lowest tally outside the bottom two sides.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primeira Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estádio da Luz, Lisbon |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes prediction
We back Benfica to win and keep a clean sheet here, perhaps the most logical read of the two sides’ current trajectories. Benfica have scored in every one of their last five matches and conceded only once in that span, while Vitoria have struggled to create chances away from home, scoring just five goals total in seven league rounds. The gap in quality and the historical dominance in this exact fixture make a comfortable home win the clearest value, to be honest, over a market price near 1.24 for Benfica.
Benfica’s numbers from their last five matches show 40 total shots against 38 for Vitoria, but the difference shows up in conversion: six goals scored to two conceded, with 21 interceptions won compared to Vitoria’s 14. Benfica also average more fouls (35 to Vitoria’s 21) and more yellow cards (10 to 3), a sign they press higher and commit more aggressively in midfield. Vitoria’s lower pass accuracy and fewer interceptions suggest they will spend long spells without the ball, which plays directly into Benfica’s strength in buildup play and set-piece delivery.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Benfica to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Benfica’s only blemish in recent weeks came in their last outing, a 3-1 away loss to Porto. Before that defeat they had strung together an impressive run including a 2-0 win over Milan and comfortable domestic victories over Gil Vicente, Moreirense and Maritimo by an aggregate score of 10-1. In our preview of Porto vs Benfica we backed goals at both ends with Benfica edging a tight contest, and while both teams did find the net, Porto’s 3-1 win means the result went against us on the winner side. Marco Silva’s side bounced back with purpose since, and facing a Vitoria side well below their level should suit a reset performance.
Vitoria Guimaraes head into this one off a narrow 1-0 win over Chaves, their first victory in three matches after a 1-1 draw with Moreirense and a 1-2 loss to Academico Viseu. Across their last five fixtures they picked up just one win, one draw and two losses before the Chaves result, scoring only three goals total. Tiago Margarido’s side have shown some defensive resilience in isolated games, but their lack of scoring punch away from home, five goals in seven league rounds, makes a repeat of recent results at Estádio da Luz unlikely.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Benfica | Vitoria Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 10 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Benfica vs Vitoria Guimaraes stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Benfica the favourite
- Moneyline Benfica 1.24 | Vitoria Guimaraes 10.00
- Draw 5.25
The market heavily favours Benfica, and the odds line up closely with the bookmakers’ own 74% implied probability for a home win. A price around 1.24 leaves little margin, but given Benfica’s unbeaten head-to-head record against this exact opponent and their superior attacking numbers this season, the short price is justified rather than inflated. Vitoria at 10.00 offers no real value given their away scoring struggles.
Vitoria Guimaraes. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Benfica possible starting eleven
- GK: Anatoliy Trubin
- DF: Souffian El Karouani, Tomás Araújo, Clément Lenglet, Samuel Dahl
- MF: João Palhinha, Fredrik Aursnes, Heorhii Sudakov, Rafa Silva, Gianluca Prestianni
- FW: Vangelis Pavlidis
Marco Silva keeps faith with the 4-2-3-1 shape that has brought consistent goals. Palhinha and Aursnes shield the back four while Sudakov and Prestianni look to combine with Pavlidis, who leads the goal charts among the squad’s recent appearances. Watch Rafa Silva’s movement behind the striker, he has been involved in link play all season even without registering directly on the scoresheet lately.
Vitoria Guimaraes possible starting eleven
- GK: Oliwier Zych
- DF: Toni Borevković, João Mendes, Balieiro Thiago, Ahmed Sidibé
- MF: Beni Mukendi, Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva, Gonçalo Nogueira, Miguel Nogueira, Lohann Doucet
- FW: Arnel Jakupović
Tiago Margarido mirrors Benfica’s 4-2-3-1, relying on Mukendi and Fábio Silva to absorb pressure in midfield. Gonçalo Nogueira remains the player most likely to create something from open play, while Jakupović leads the line alone and will need service that has been scarce in recent away games.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Benfica. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a routine Benfica win here, most likely by two or more goals. The home side’s attacking numbers dwarf what Vitoria have shown defensively on the road, and the historical dominance in this exact fixture, four wins from four with a combined 10-0 scoreline, backs up the statistical case. Our punters team leans toward Benfica to win to nil, with total goals over 2.5 as the secondary angle given how often Benfica’s matches have produced goals this season. Vitoria’s recent draw and single win in three games suggest occasional resilience, but not enough to trouble a Benfica side that looks sharper with every passing round.
