Sofia Quijada
Estadio Julio César Villagra in Cordoba hosts a knockout quarterfinal where Belgrano, with a higher win rate and slightly stronger form, faces Union de Santa Fe. The context: Belgrano’s defensive shape under Ricardo Zielinski will face a Union side that has struggled away but still managed more goals over their last five matches. With both teams trending towards close, low-scoring encounters in head-to-head clashes, expect tactical caution but also the potential for individual brilliance to tip the balance.
Two names stand out. Francisco González Metilli for Belgrano has netted 2 goals in his last four games, carrying the bulk of the side’s creative and finishing load. For Union, Cristian Tarragona, responsible for 2 goals and a heavy volume of shots, remains their most dangerous forward threat. Both could be decisive.
Hot stat: Union de Santa Fe have amassed a whopping 32 corners in their last five matches, compared to Belgrano’s 13.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Argentine Primera Division 2026 Apertura Quarterfinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Julio César Villagra, Cordoba |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:00 CEST |
Belgrano vs Union de Santa Fe prediction
We predict Belgrano to win. The home side offers more consistency and resilience at the back, with only 5 goals conceded in the last five matches. Union’s attacking stats are inflated by a single high-scoring outing, while their overall win rate is just 20% over the last month. Belgrano, by contrast, boasts a 50% win rate both over the last month and across the calendar year.
Expect a game with physical duels and interruptions. Belgrano play disciplined, with only 6 yellow cards and 51 fouls across five matches, compared to Union’s 14 bookings and 46 fouls. Both teams favor structured buildup—Belgrano averages 306 passes per match at 78% accuracy, Union about 296 at 74%. Neither side is reckless, but Union’s penchant for corners and higher yellow count could disrupt their own rhythm.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Under 2.5 Goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Belgrano’s last five results: Win over Talleres Cordoba (1-0), dominant 4-0 victory against Sarmiento Junin, a single-goal loss to Gimnasia LP, a goalless draw with Barracas Central, and a tight 1-0 win over Aldosivi. This sequence underlines their defensive focus and ability to grind out results, especially at home.
Union de Santa Fe have had a patchier run: narrow win over Independiente Rivadavia (2-1), hard-fought 1-1 draw with Talleres Cordoba, another draw with Velez Sarsfield (2-2), then losses to Newells Old Boys (2-3) and Estudiantes LP (1-2). Goals flow more freely in their matches, but defensive lapses and discipline issues cost them points.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Belgrano | Union de Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 2 |
| Total shots | 44 | 77 |
| Free kicks | 2 | 5 |
| Corner kicks | 13 | 32 |
| Total fouls | 51 | 46 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 78% | 74% |
| Interceptions | 37 | 31 |
| Offsides | 7 | 10 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Belgrano vs Union de Santa Fe stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Belgrano the favourite
- Moneyline Belgrano 2.45 | Union de Santa Fe 3.25
- Draw 3.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.35 | Under 2.5 1.55
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.05 | No 1.65
Bookmakers consistently side with Belgrano as the home favorite, offering a 40% win probability. Union’s away record and recent defensive frailties justify the longer odds. The low over/under line for goals reflects the expectation of a cagey, low-scoring clash. Both teams to score is priced conservatively—recent meetings suggest at least one side is likely to draw a blank.
Possible Starting Lineups
Belgrano possible starting eleven
- GK: Thiago Cardozo
- DF: Lisandro López, Alexis Maldonado, Adrian Spörle, Alcides Benitez
- MF: Adrian Sanchez, Ramiro Hernandes, Francisco González Metilli, Lucas Zelarayán, Julian Mavilla
- FW: Lucas Passerini
Cardozo keeps goal after a run of four full matches. The defensive core revolves around López and Maldonado, both logging every minute recently. Spörle and Benitez fill out the back line. Metilli, a scoring midfielder, partners creative force Zelarayán and the industrious Sanchez. Up front, Passerini leads the line, supported by Mavilla out wide. Expect a 4-2-3-1 setup for ball retention and disciplined pressing.
Union de Santa Fe possible starting eleven
- GK: Matías Mansilla
- DF: Juan Pablo Ludueña, Lautaro Vargas, Rafael Profini, M. Del Blanco
- MF: Mauro Pitton, Julián Palacios, Lucas Menossi, Brahian Cuello
- FW: Cristian Tarragona, Marcelo Estigarriba
Mansilla holds the gloves after playing every minute in goal. Ludueña, Vargas, Profini, and Del Blanco form a settled back four, with Del Blanco also contributing assists. Pitton and Palacios anchor midfield, Menossi and Cuello provide width and creativity. Up front, Tarragona and Estigarriba have the highest shot totals and recent goals. A 4-4-2 setup looks likely, aiming to balance width with direct attacking play.
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Belgrano. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Belgrano to progress. Their home advantage, superior win rate, and defensive solidity tip the balance. Union de Santa Fe have goals in them, but their discipline and defensive vulnerability away from home make them less reliable. Expect a tight contest, with one goal likely to decide the outcome. Under 2.5 goals and a strong chance of a Belgrano clean sheet.
