Belgium (w) vs Italy (w) Prediction: 03.07.2025 UEFA European Women's Championship Preview

The Group B encounter between Belgium (w) and Italy (w) at the UEFA European Women’s Championship 2025 offers more than the first glance suggests. Both sides arrive in Sion on the back of recent wins, eager to stake their claim early in a competitive group. Italy enter as odds-on favourites, yet Belgium’s recent upturn in attacking prowess under Ives Serneels means the Azzurre will have to be wary, especially with the likes of Tessa Wullaert back in the starting fold. For Italy, Milena Bertolini’s focus on midfield control remains a strength—expect detailed tactical battles, especially in transition phases. Notably, this will be a meeting between two managers who know how to balance youth integration with tournament experience.

Among the many on-pitch narratives, two attackers stand out: Belgium’s versatile forward Tessa Wullaert, whose goal-scoring output and movement have been a catalyst for her team, and Italy’s free-scoring Cristiana Girelli, who has been decisive in critical fixtures. Both have the technical and tactical attributes to tilt the match their way, and their influence could define the result.

Hot stat: Italy (w) have averaged 15 total shots per match across their last five games—far outpacing Belgium (w)’s average of six—highlighting their ability to create numerous goal-scoring opportunities.

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Belgium (w) vs Italy (w) prediction

Given recent form, squad strengths, and the available statistics, Italy (w) are well-placed to take three points in Sion. The Azzurre’s organized, possession-based style—anchored by experienced campaigners like Elena Linari and the forward prowess of Girelli—matches up well against a Belgian side still seeking defensive consistency. Belgium’s 0-5 defeat to France and 1-5 loss against Spain highlight ongoing challenges in managing high-calibre attacks. Additionally, Italy’s higher pass accuracy (375 per match vs Belgium’s 228 in the last five matches) and their greater number of corner kicks (6 to Belgium’s 1) reflect more structured possession and sustained pressure in advanced areas.

Expect Italy to assert themselves through midfield control, keeping Belgium pinned back and creating multiple scoring chances. Belgium’s threat will likely come on the break, using the pace and technical ability of Wullaert, Cayman, and Eurlings, but they’ll need to maintain discipline defensively, especially given their higher average for yellow cards and fouls.

Italy’s build-up play and offensive intent should deliver a match with both goals and corners, while Belgium’s counterattacking strengths still make them capable of finding the net. The robust defensive performances from Italy in recent qualifiers suggest they’re less likely to concede heavily, but not immune to a Belgian side rising to the occasion.

Team Analysis

Belgium (w) recent matches: Belgium have shown a blend of resilience and vulnerability in the run-up to this fixture. After a positive 2-0 home win versus Greece where they pressed high and converted set pieces, the Red Flames were undone by France, suffering a heavy 0-5 defeat that exposed defensive frailties. However, they bounced back emphatically against Portugal with a 3-0 commanding performance led by Tessa Wullaert’s incisiveness in attack. Their previous five matches illustrate a side still looking for consistent balancing between defense and attack, highlighted by a mixture of tight wins and high-scoring defeats. The tactical flexibility has been apparent, switching between 3-4-1-2 and more defensive setups depending on the opposition strength.

Italy (w) recent matches: Italy have been more consistent—after a big 4-1 win over Wales, the Azzurre drew 0-0 with Sweden (a side with an elite defensive record), before dispatching Denmark 3-0. Milena Bertolini has emphasized a 4-3-3 formation, using wide areas and aggressive pressing to keep opponents under sustained pressure. Italy’s defensive core has proved reliable, and their ability to sustain possession in midfield has led to better transition management and higher collective confidence. Their shooting volume and sharpness in set-piece situations have been notable assets in recent outings, with players like Linari and Girelli crucial to both ends of the pitch.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Belgium (w) vs Italy (w) stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Italy (w) the favourite

• Moneyline Belgium (w) 4.44 | Italy (w) 1.75
• Draw 3.88
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.87 | Under 2.5 1.85
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.91 | No 1.80

Bookmakers firmly back Italy (w) as favourites—and for good reason: Italy’s recent wins over strong opponents, superior shot creation, and overall more stable tactical identity tip the scales. While Belgium’s high odds might tempt risk-takers, the gap in recent performances and squad depth is quite pronounced. The value in the Over 2.5 goals market is notable given both teams’ offensive tendencies and defensive inconsistencies in big matches.

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Possible Starting Lineups

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The Verdict

My main pick for this clash is Italy (w) to win with a -1.0 Asian Handicap. Italy’s superior tactical structure, shot creation, and squad depth, coupled with recent Belgian defensive lapses, set them apart here. Expect Belgium to have moments in transition but ultimately Italy’s collective quality and organization should see them through. The goal markets and corners provide strong alternative value, given both teams’ styles. For punters, Italy’s odds—though short—look justifiable in a high-stakes opener.

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