Belarus vs Greece Prediction: 18.11.2025 FIFA World Cup UEFA Qualification Preview

The final matchday of Group C in the FIFA World Cup UEFA Qualification brings Belarus face-to-face with Greece at ZTE Arena, Zalaegerszeg. With Greece harbouring hopes of a strong finish and Belarus seeking to salvage pride, this clash is set against a backdrop of contrasting trajectories. Notably, when these sides met earlier in the group, Greece delivered a commanding 5-1 win—setting the narrative for another intriguing encounter. Key midfield orchestrator Anastasios Bakasetas and creative playmaker Valeri Gromyko stand out as pivotal figures who could tilt the balance in their teams’ favour.

Hot stat: Greece registered a dominant 18 total shots in their last five matches, reflecting their attacking intent, while Belarus managed only 7 in the same period.

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Belarus vs Greece prediction

Given both form and recent head-to-head, the best value is backing Greece with a -1.5 Asian Handicap. Ivan Jovanovic’s Greece have not only won but dominated Belarus in their last meeting (5-1), complemented by a superior win rate (56% in 2025) and a much higher shot count. Belarus, still winless in the group, struggle in both attack and defense, conceding 17 goals in 5 games. Greece’s disciplined play, superior ball control (higher passes and accuracy), and recent uptick in goals make them a clear favourite.

In terms of match dynamics, Belarus’s recent record shows a high foul count and yellow cards—a sign they may disrupt Greece’s passing rhythm but risk conceding set-pieces and losing composure. Greece, on the other hand, are more measured (only 9 fouls and no yellow cards recently) and are likely to dominate possession, recycle play, and create shooting opportunities. Expect Greece’s methodical approach and higher attacking output to overcome Belarus’s resistance.

Team Analysis

Belarus struggled throughout the qualifying campaign, particularly in defense, shipping 17 goals in just five group matches. Their most recent result—a 2-2 draw with Denmark—showed resilience, with Valeri Gromyko stepping up as both scorer and provider. However, prior fixtures highlighted serious defensive lapses: losses to Scotland (1-2, 0-2) and a crushing 0-6 defeat to Denmark reflect their inability to cope under sustained pressure. Belarus do show sporadic flashes of attacking potential but, critically, lack consistency and discipline at the back.

Greece enter this match buoyed by a narrow 3-2 victory over Scotland, cementing their position as a dangerous attacking unit. Manager Ivan Jovanovic’s shift to a 3-4-2-1 has revitalized their offensive play, with Anastasios Bakasetas and Christos Tzolis central to the goal threat. Despite earlier setbacks against Denmark and Scotland, Greece demonstrated their superiority in the reverse 5-1 win over Belarus—outshooting, outpassing, and outplaying their hosts. With improved defensive work and resolute midfield play, Greece will look to press high, recycle possession, and exploit Belarus’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Belarus vs Greece stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Greece the favourite

• Moneyline Belarus 11.00 | Greece 1.27
• Draw 5.40
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 2.00
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.64 | No 1.49

Greece are overwhelming favourites, with odds of 1.27 for an away win, reflecting both their superior form and historical dominance in this matchup. The long odds for Belarus (11.00) illustrate their underdog status, compounded by defensive frailties and a poor group stage showing. Over 2.5 goals (1.85) and “No” for both teams to score (1.49) underline expectations of Greek attacking output with limited resistance from Belarus. Given Greece’s form and Belarus’s vulnerability, the market’s faith in Greece is thoroughly justified.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Belarus possible starting eleven

Given recent selection patterns, Belarus are likely to field their tested 4-4-1-1 with Lapoukhov between the sticks. Defensive stability is a concern, but Zabelin and Parkhomenko provide some experience at the back. In midfield, look for Max Ebong and Gromyko as engines to break up play and transition quickly. German Barkovskiy’s mobility up front will be key, though support from the midfield will determine Belarus’s attacking potency. Gromyko, coming off a goal and assist, remains the player to watch.

Greece possible starting eleven

Jovanovic’s 3-4-2-1 is yielding results, so expect Vlachodimos to start in goal, flanked by a trio of assured defenders. The midfield sees Tsimikas and Kourbelis marshalling possession, with Mouzakitis and Bakasetas providing creativity. Up front, Tzolis’s recent scoring exploits and Pavlidis’s link-up play give Greece both width and penetration. Bakasetas, their orchestrator and recent goalscorer, is particularly vital; his vision and set-piece prowess consistently unlock stubborn defenses.

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My take on the Match

With all signs pointing to a Greek victory, my primary pick is Greece -1.5 Asian Handicap. Greece have the tactical edge, an in-form midfield axis, and a clinical attack. Belarus will likely adopt a compact approach but have struggled to stem the flow against better opposition. Expect an open first half, with Greece gradually asserting control and capitalizing on Belarus’s defensive vulnerabilities. For punters seeking value outside the main markets, a side bet on over 2.5 goals and Greece to win without conceding are attractive, given the match data and trends.

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