Levi Rothermund
Beijing Guoan welcome Shandong Taishan to the Workers’ Stadium on July 4 in what is one of the more historically charged fixtures in Chinese football. The two sides met earlier this season in March, with Taishan winning 2-1 in Beijing, so Guoan have a score to settle on home turf. Nick Montgomery’s men sit sixth in the table with 23 points from 16 games, while Han Peng’s Taishan are just one spot above them in fifth on 24 points from a game fewer. This is effectively a direct fight for upper-table positioning.
Two players to watch: Jose Joaquim de Carvalho has been in outstanding form for Taishan, scoring five goals across his last two matches, and the Brazilian forward will be the primary threat. For Guoan, Lin Liangming carries the most direct goal threat up front, contributing two goals in his last two appearances and consistently generating chances in wide areas.
Hot stat: Shandong Taishan scored 10 goals across their last two matches, putting five past Liaoning Tieren and five past Guangxi Hengchen. That run of form makes them one of the most in-form attacking sides in the league right now.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Chinese Super League 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Beijing Workers’ Stadium, Beijing |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 13:35 CEST |
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Taishan Prediction
Bookmakers strongly favour Beijing Guoan at home, with an implied win probability of around 54%. Given the home advantage, Guoan’s recent three-match unbeaten run, and the significance of the fixture, that feels broadly accurate. We think a Guoan win is the right side to be on, but the value in backing them at odds around 1.73 is modest at best.
The better angle is the goals market. Taishan have been extraordinarily free-scoring in their last two games and Guoan themselves have scored in each of their last five. Both teams carry genuine attacking threat, and Taishan’s defensive record this season is not convincing, conceding 25 goals in 15 league games. We think Over 2.5 goals is a strong lean, and Both Teams to Score at Yes looks well-supported given how open these two sides tend to play against each other.
Guoan average 19 corner kicks across their last five matches compared to Taishan’s three, which is a notable gap. Montgomery’s side clearly pushes wide and generates set-piece situations at a much higher rate. That makes Over 8.5 corners a reasonable line to target.
Guoan also commit fouls at a higher rate (17 across five games) and have picked up five yellow cards, suggesting a physical approach that could disrupt Taishan’s rhythm. Taishan, by contrast, have been surprisingly clean with zero yellows in recent games and only five fouls, meaning they play a more structured, disciplined game. That contrast in style could produce a fractured, stop-start match that still generates plenty of attacking moments.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 8.5 corners |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Beijing Guoan have gone unbeaten in their last three matches, picking up wins over Wuhan Three Towns (1-0) and Guangzhou E-Power (2-1), plus a 3-2 win over Chongqing before that. The form suggests growing confidence under Montgomery, though the sequence of opponents has been mixed in quality. Their most recent result, a 1-0 home win over Wuhan, was controlled rather than convincing, with the team generating only a limited number of shots.
Shandong Taishan enter this match on the back of a 5-1 demolition of Liaoning Tieren, following a 5-0 win over Guangxi Hengchen the week before. Those back-to-back results represent a sharp upturn in form after a 0-1 loss to league leaders Chengdu Better City. The attacking trio of De Carvalho, Valeri Qazaishvili, and the supporting cast of Guilherme Miranda have combined for the majority of those goals. Taishan look dangerous in transition and their forward players are clearly in form.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Beijing Guoan | Shandong Taishan |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 9 | 9 |
| Total shots | 43 | 23 |
| Free kicks | 17 | 9 |
| Corner kicks | 19 | 3 |
| Total fouls | 17 | 5 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 89% | 80% |
| Interceptions | 6 | 13 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Taishan stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Beijing Guoan the favourite
- Moneyline Beijing Guoan 1.73 | Shandong Taishan 4.00
- Draw 4.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.85 | Under 2.5 1.95
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.80 | No 1.90
The Guoan moneyline around 1.73 reflects their home advantage and recent form, but it is not generous given the historical unpredictability of this fixture. The 2025 head-to-head saw a 6-1 Guoan win followed by a 6-0 Taishan win, which tells you everything about how volatile this rivalry can be. Taishan at 4.00 carries obvious risk but is honestly not terrible value given their current attacking output. The draw at 4.20 looks overpriced given how these teams have historically refused to settle for a point against each other.
Shandong Taishan. Source: Official Facebook
Possible Starting Lineups
Beijing Guoan possible starting eleven
- GK: Hou Sen
- DF: Guilherme Ramos, Wang Gang, Bai Yang, Yue Tze-Nam
- MF: Boubacar Konte, Dawhan Fran Urano da Purificação Oliveira, Zhang Xizhe, Sai Erjini’ao
- FW: Lin Liangming, Fabio Abreu
Montgomery has been consistent with his selections, and this 4-4-2 shape has served Guoan reasonably well in recent weeks. Hou Sen starts in goal having appeared in two of the last five matches, with Zhang Jianzhi as backup cover. Guilherme Ramos at centre-back is worth watching, contributing a goal from defence and maintaining a strong passing range. Lin Liangming remains the most direct attacking outlet, and Fabio Abreu provides physical presence up top. Boubacar Konte anchors the midfield with both defensive work and ball retention.
Shandong Taishan possible starting eleven
- GK: Wang Dalei
- DF: Liu Yang, Zheng Zheng, Wang Tong, Gao Zhunyi
- MF: Mewlan Mijit, Guilherme Miranda Madruga Gomes, Huang Zhengyu
- FW: Valeri Qazaishvili, Jose Joaquim de Carvalho, Xie Wenneng
Han Peng’s 4-2-3-1 setup has delivered big results in recent weeks. Wang Dalei starts in goal and has been a reliable presence, even contributing an assist from distribution. The key names in attack are De Carvalho, who leads the line with five goals in two games, and Qazaishvili, who has two goals and two assists alongside him. Guilherme Miranda sits just behind them, offering creativity and goal threat from midfield. This is a front four that has been genuinely difficult to contain lately.
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Beijing Guoan. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
This match has goals written all over it. Both sides are scoring freely, Taishan’s defence has been porous all season, and the head-to-head record between these clubs is littered with high-scoring results. Guoan’s home advantage and their strong corner-generating style gives them a structural edge, and we think they take the three points. A 2-1 or 2-2 scoreline feels realistic.
We are backing Guoan to win, Over 2.5 goals, and Both Teams to Score. The corner market is also worth a look given Guoan’s wide play generates set pieces at a significantly higher rate than Taishan. Honestly, the most interesting line here is BTTS Yes, which combines well with a Guoan win on a double for slightly better value than either selection alone.
