Levi Rothermund
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Bayer Leverkusen open their BayArena account in the 2026/27 Bundesliga season on the back of a surprising opening-day defeat, hosting a Union Berlin side that salvaged a 3-3 draw in their own opener. Both teams arrive with something to prove. The interesting wrinkle here is that Union Berlin have won at BayArena in the most recent head-to-head fixture, so Leverkusen’s home advantage is not as clean as the odds suggest.
Two players worth watching closely: Ibrahim Maza has been Leverkusen’s most creative force across the last five matches, registering two assists and a goal while generating the highest shot-creation volume in midfield. For Union Berlin, Josip Juranović stands out with three assists from the last five appearances, consistently driving attacking transitions from the right side.
Hot stat: Bayer Leverkusen have scored eight goals across their last five matches, but have also conceded in each of their last three competitive games, including a 2-3 home loss to Elversberg just days ago.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Bundesliga 2026/27 |
| 🏟 Venue: | BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 05.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:30 CEST |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin Prediction
Leverkusen are clear favourites at around 1.45-1.55, and the bookmakers’ 64% win probability reflects their overall quality. We think that price is fair but not exceptional value given the context. Leverkusen lost their Bundesliga opener 2-3 at home to Elversberg, which is a red flag. Union Berlin, despite a lower ranking, arrive with a 3-3 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt and a team that has been scoring freely in recent outings.
The best value play here is a Bayer Leverkusen win combined with both teams scoring. Leverkusen have the attacking output to win this comfortably at home, but their defensive fragility has been evident across recent weeks. Union Berlin averaged 7 goals in five matches and have shown they are not a team that parks the bus. Honestly, a clean sheet for either side seems unlikely.
Leverkusen operate in a 4-2-3-1 with high passing volume (1,791 passes in five matches, 89% accuracy) and generate a lot of attacking pressure through the wide areas. Union Berlin, by contrast, play a more direct game with notably lower pass numbers and accuracy, relying on transitions and set pieces. Union Berlin have picked up 14 corner kicks in five matches compared to Leverkusen’s 9, which suggests their attacking intent is not negligible. Leverkusen commit more fouls (44 in five games) than Union Berlin (29), meaning there are regular dead-ball opportunities for the visitors. Leverkusen’s five yellow cards in five games versus Union Berlin’s five also point to a physical match with referee involvement.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bayer Leverkusen to win & Both Teams to Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen have been inconsistent across the last 30 days, winning four and losing two of their six matches. Their most recent game was a 2-3 home defeat to Elversberg, a result that will concern coach Carles Martínez given it came on their own pitch. Before that they beat Wehen 4-0 in a cup match, defeated Newcastle 2-1, and won against Sevilla. The loss to Nottingham Forest (1-2) and the Elversberg result show a team that is still settling into its defensive structure. In the last five matches they have attempted 52 shots and scored eight goals, which points to clinical finishing when they are on song. The problem is they have also allowed goals in multiple recent games.
Union Berlin’s form over the last 30 days is mixed: two wins, two draws, and two losses. Their last match was a 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt, a high-scoring game that showed both their attacking capability and defensive vulnerabilities. Before that they beat Braunschweig 4-2 and lost to Ipswich 2-4 in a pre-season or cup context. They beat Aris Limassol 3-2 and drew 2-2 with Cagliari. Across five matches they have scored seven goals and taken 36 shots, with 14 corner kicks. Marin Ljubičić leads the forward line with two goals from two appearances, and Leopold Querfeld and Tom Rothe have both contributed goals from defensive positions, adding unpredictability from set pieces.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two sides have met four times in recent Bundesliga seasons, with results going in both directions.
| Statistic | Bayer Leverkusen | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin stats page for more info.
Union Berlin. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Bayer Leverkusen the Favourite
- Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen 1.48 | Union Berlin 5.75
- Draw 4.70
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds on Leverkusen at around 1.45-1.50 reflect genuine home quality, but we think the market is slightly underestimating Union Berlin’s ability to score here. The draw at 4.70 is not a market we would chase given the attacking output of both sides. Leverkusen’s recent defensive issues make the straight win a reasonable but not risk-free bet, which is why the “win and BTTS” angle carries more honest value for anyone looking beyond the basic 1X2.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Mark Flekken
- DF: Miguel Gutiérrez, Loic Bade, Edmond Tapsoba, Lucas Vázquez
- MF: Aleix García, Ignacio Fernández, Ibrahim Maza, Malik Tillman, Jonas Hofmann
- FW: Patrik Schick
Leverkusen’s most likely shape is a 4-2-3-1 with Aleix García and Ignacio Fernández sitting as the double pivot. Mark Flekken takes the starting spot based on his three appearances in the last five games, with Tapsoba and Bade forming a reliable centre-back pairing. Ibrahim Maza is the most dangerous attacking midfielder in this squad right now and is the player most likely to unlock Union Berlin’s defensive block. Patrik Schick leads the line with two goals from his last three matches and remains the focal point in attack.
Union Berlin Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Matheo Raab
- DF: Josip Juranović, Zeno Van Den Bosch, Leopold Querfeld, Tom Rothe
- MF: Rani Khedira, Aljoscha Kemlein, András Schäfer, Woo-Yeong Jeong
- FW: Marin Ljubičić, Emmanuel Latte Lath
Union Berlin’s 4-2-3-1 sees Matheo Raab in goal, with Tom Rothe and Josip Juranović providing width from the full-back positions. Zeno Van Den Bosch and Leopold Querfeld cover the centre, with both having contributed goals from set pieces recently. Rani Khedira anchors the midfield alongside Kemlein. Marin Ljubičić is the most dangerous forward, scoring twice in two games, and he will be the main threat Leverkusen’s defence needs to account for.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Bayer Leverkusen. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We think Bayer Leverkusen win this match, but the scoreline will not be clean. Their 4-2-3-1 generates enough attacking quality through Maza, Schick, and Kofane to break down a Union Berlin side that has looked open at the back in recent weeks. The issue is Leverkusen’s own defence, which has conceded in multiple consecutive games. Union Berlin score goals, they press, and they have players like Ljubičić and Latte Lath who can punish defensive mistakes.
A 2-1 or 3-1 win for Leverkusen feels like the most probable outcome. Maybe the clearest market to back is Leverkusen win with both teams scoring, sitting at better value than the straight moneyline. The corners market also looks interesting given Union Berlin’s tendency to generate corner situations and Leverkusen’s wide-attacking approach.
