Levi Rothermund
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Bayer Leverkusen open their Europa League League Phase campaign at home against Celje, and honestly, the gap between these two clubs looks massive on paper. Leverkusen sit 24th in the world club rankings, Celje sit 222nd, and that disparity shows up everywhere from squad depth to recent scorelines.
What’s interesting here is timing. Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5 games and look sharp in front of goal, scoring 12 times across those matches. Celje, meanwhile, arrive off a rough patch, losing 4 of their last 5 outings, including a shock 1-4 defeat to lower-ranked side Brinje Grosuplje. That kind of form rarely travels well into a European away trip against a side of Leverkusen’s caliber.
Two names worth tracking closely: Patrik Schick has scored 4 goals in his last 4 appearances and looks like the focal point of Leverkusen’s attack again. Ibrahim Maza has chipped in with a goal and two assists in the same stretch, and his creativity between the lines could stretch a Celje defense that has looked shaky lately.
Hot stat: Leverkusen have netted 12 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 2.4 per game, while Celje have shipped heavy defeats in three of their last five, conceding multiple goals against opposition ranked well below Leverkusen’s level. That gulf in attacking output versus defensive fragility is the story of this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2026/27 – League Phase |
| 🏟 Venue: | BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje prediction
We think Leverkusen win this comfortably, and by more than one goal. The bookmakers already price them at roughly 81% implied probability, and the underlying numbers back that up. Leverkusen have scored freely against weaker continental opposition this season, and Celje’s away form in cup competition has been inconsistent at best.
Our value pick leans toward Leverkusen to win and over 2.5 total goals. A Schick-led attack against a Celje backline that’s conceded heavily in recent weeks points toward a one-sided scoreline, maybe something like 3-0 or 3-1.
Style-wise, Leverkusen have picked up just 5 yellow cards across their last 5 matches, a sign they don’t need to foul much when they’re dominating possession and territory. Their pass accuracy sits above 2100 completed passes over that stretch, which tells you they control tempo rather than chase it. Celje’s numbers aren’t available for this same window, but their recent scorelines suggest a side that struggles to keep the ball for long spells against stronger opposition, which usually invites more fouls and set-piece concessions.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bayer Leverkusen to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Leverkusen’s last match ended 2-2 against FC Augsburg, a result that snapped some of their recent momentum but still showed they can find the net against organized defenses. Before that they thrashed Union Berlin 4-0 and beat Elversberg and Wehen as well, though they dropped a 2-3 result to Elversberg earlier in the run. The overall picture is a team scoring goals in bunches, occasionally leaking a couple at the back, but rarely failing to find the net themselves.
Celje’s last outing was a 1-2 loss to Bravo, continuing a stretch where they’ve won just once in their last five. Before that they beat Rudar 3-0, but sandwiched between wins sit defeats to Koper, Aluminij and a heavy 1-4 loss to Brinje Grosuplje. That inconsistency, especially the concession of four goals to a side outside the continental picture, raises real questions about their away defensive setup heading into Leverkusen.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
These two clubs have no recent competitive meetings on record. This fixture marks a fresh matchup between Bayer Leverkusen and Celje, so there’s no head-to-head trend to lean on here.
🚨Check out our dedicated Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bayer Leverkusen the favourite
- Moneyline Bayer Leverkusen 1.13 | Celje 15.00
- Draw 7.50
The odds tell a clear story. Leverkusen sitting around 1.13 on the moneyline reflects the market’s confidence that a European heavyweight beats a Slovenian side with a fraction of the resources. We’d honestly avoid backing the outright win alone given the low return, and instead look toward goal markets or handicap lines where the value sits better. Celje at 15.00 feels generous only in the sense that upsets happen, but nothing in their recent form suggests they’re capable of pulling this one off.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting eleven
- GK: Mark Flekken
- DF: Miguel Gutiérrez, Edmond Tapsoba, Jarell Quansah, Facundo Medina
- MF: Aleix García, Ignacio Fernández Carballo, Ibrahim Maza, Malik Tillman, Afonso Moreira
- FW: Patrik Schick
Carles Martínez has largely stuck with a 4-2-3-1 shape over the last five matches, and the appearance data backs a settled group. Tapsoba and Quansah look like the preferred central pairing, while García anchors midfield alongside Fernández Carballo. Schick’s four goals in four games make him the clear focal point up top, and Maza’s involvement in both goals and assists suggests he’ll get license to roam behind him.
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Bayer Leverkusen. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
This one looks fairly straightforward on the numbers. Leverkusen have the firepower, the home advantage, and a much better recent run than Celje, who’ve lost four of their last five games and shown real defensive cracks against inferior opposition. We’re backing Leverkusen to win comfortably, likely by two goals or more, with over 3.5 total goals appealing given how open Celje have been at the back lately. Both teams to score no feels right too, since Celje’s attack has struggled to trouble stronger sides this season, and Leverkusen’s defense should limit clean chances against a side clearly out of its depth here.
