Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: 11.05.2025 Bundesliga Preview

As the regular Bundesliga season nears its crescendo, second-placed Bayer Leverkusen host fifth-placed Borussia Dortmund at the BayArena in a high-stakes encounter that will shape the narrative at the league’s summit. While Leverkusen have shown resilience under Xabi Alonso—still losing only twice this league campaign—Dortmund are finishing strong under Niko Kovac, riding a wave of momentum from an impressive unbeaten streak. With Champions League spots on the line, both sides have a history of goals when facing each other, making this a fixture brimming with both tactical nuance and attacking promise.

Two key protagonists look set to shape the encounter: Patrik Schick, Leverkusen’s clinical forward, has been a decisive figure with vital goals and a physical edge in the box, while on the opposite side, Sehrou Guirassy has electrified Dortmund’s attack with seven goals in his last five games, displaying a knack for finding space and finishing under pressure. Neither goalkeeper, be it Hrádecký or Kobel, will have an easy afternoon with these threats lurking in the final third.

Perhaps the most outstanding recent stat is this: Borussia Dortmund have netted 15 goals in their last five matches—an attacking spree that marks them as the Bundesliga’s form side in front of goal and highlights the risk Leverkusen’s typically sturdy defence will face.

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Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

In a clash defined by form and firepower, Dortmund arrive as slight favorites—outsiders on paper, but favorites in momentum. Their recent run of five wins from seven (including a resounding 4-0 over Wolfsburg and a 3-1 triumph over Barcelona) speaks to a side peaking at the right time. Leverkusen, by contrast, have steadied after a turbulent patch, but a trio of draws in their last five suggests a lack of cutting edge when pressured by elite opposition.

Expect a fiercely contested midfield: Both sides favor a 3-4-2-1 formation, maximizing wingback dynamism and central overloads. Leverkusen, despite controlling possession with 2137 passes at 88% accuracy in their last five, are vulnerable to speed on the break—precisely where Dortmund, with Guirassy and Adeyemi, excel. One notable point is Dortmund’s increased discipline, with only three yellow cards in their past five (versus Leverkusen’s eight), allowing them to press aggressively without the risk of key suspensions.

Set pieces may prove pivotal—Dortmund have racked up 28 corners across five matches, nearly double Leverkusen’s tally. However, Leverkusen’s defensive structure, marshaled by Jonathan Tah and world-class passing from Granit Xhaka, keeps them difficult to break down. Both teams like to hold onto the ball and press high, but Dortmund’s sharper edge and current scoring spree edge this prediction slightly in their direction.

Team Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen Recent Games:
Leverkusen have been steady but unspectacular in recent weeks, grinding out a 2-2 draw with Freiburg last time out. The side remains difficult to beat, drawing three and winning two in their last five. Defensively robust, they’ve conceded just three goals across these games. However, an overreliance on Schick’s finishing and Wirtz’s creativity in midfield has made them a touch predictable when faced with disciplined opponents. Their patient, pass-heavy build-up—averaging 487.6 passes per game in this stretch—has often struggled to produce cutting edge against resolute defences, as seen in goalless draws versus Union Berlin and a hard-fought 1-1 against St. Pauli.

Borussia Dortmund Recent Games:
Dortmund are a team on the charge, boasting a formidable offensive record—three or more goals in four of their last five outings. Their 4-0 dismantling of Wolfsburg, spearheaded by Guirassy and Brandt, showcased both finishing prowess and tactical flexibility, with Kovac’s men pressing high and breaking with devastating speed. Notably, their five-match streak features only a single loss and a hard-fought draw with Bayern Munich, underscoring both their attacking intent and rising confidence. Their defence, however, remains vulnerable: conceding twice to both Hoffenheim and Gladbach, they often rely on their forwards to outscore opponents rather than shut up shop at the back.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Borussia Dortmund the favourite

Bookmakers rightfully see this as a tightly contested fixture, with Dortmund edging favor thanks to recent form and attacking verve. The short price on Over 2.5 and Both Teams To Score underscores the attacking talent on show and both teams’ tendency to attack rather than sit back. Given their offensive output, value exists in backing goals and siding with Dortmund, particularly with the insurance of a Draw No Bet.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Bayer Leverkusen possible starting eleven

• GK: Matej Kovar
• DF: Jonathan Tah, Edmond Tapsoba, Martin Hincapie
• MF: Granit Xhaka, Exequiel Palacios, Alejandro Grimaldo, Jeremie Frimpong
• FW: Florian Wirtz, Nathan Tella
• CF: Patrik Schick

Alonso is likely to continue with his reliable 3-4-2-1. Kovar’s recent consistency gives him the nod in goal, with Tah, Tapsoba, and Hincapie forming a formidable defensive trio. The midfield engine, driven by Xhaka and Palacios, controls tempo and circulation, while Grimaldo and Frimpong provide the width and pace. Wirtz and Tella’s creativity support Schick, whose physicality and finishing are pivotal. Watch out for Grimaldo’s forward surges and Wirtz’s flair between the lines.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting eleven

• GK: Gregor Kobel
• DF: Niklas Süle, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini
• MF: Daniel Svensson, Emre Can, Pascal Groß, Julian Ryerson
• FW: Julian Brandt, Karim Adeyemi
• CF: Sehrou Guirassy

Kovac is expected to stick with a 3-4-2-1 that’s delivered results. Kobel is the clear choice in goal, with Süle, Anton, and Bensebaini providing defensive stability and occasional attacking overlaps. Can and Groß shore up the midfield, Ryerson and Svensson offer pace and width, while Brandt and Adeyemi’s movement will support the in-form Guirassy. Guirassy’s explosive form and Brandt’s creativity demand attention, as does Svennson’s knack for delivering dangerous balls into the box.

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My take on the Match

My main pick: Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund.
This is one for the football purists: two well-drilled sides, both chasing European football, but it’s Dortmund who have all the attacking momentum and fewer injury concerns. Guirassy is near unstoppable on current form, and while Leverkusen’s discipline and control will keep the contest close, their recent struggles to kill off matches tilt the balance slightly. Expect goals, drama, and plenty of end-to-end action—advantage Dortmund, but only just.

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