Liam Duckstein
This second leg of the UEFA Conference League 2026/27 First Qualifying Round is finely poised after the first match ended 1-1 in Albania. BATE now host AF Elbasani with everything still to play for, and the away goal rule is no longer in play in UEFA competition, meaning any win sends the victorious side through. The bookmakers lean toward AF Elbasani despite BATE having home advantage, which tells you something about the respective trajectories of these two clubs heading into Thursday night.
Keep an eye on midfielder Egor Kress for BATE. He has registered two assists across the last two matches and is clearly the creative engine in midfield. For AF Elbasani, Bledar Lila has been a constant presence in the middle of the park, providing stability across both legs. He will be central to how the Albanian side controls tempo in what should be a tightly contested affair.
One stat worth flagging: AF Elbasani have attempted 24 shots across their last five matches compared to BATE’s 16, suggesting the Albanian side generates more attacking volume even when results have not always gone their way.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Conference League 2026/27 – First Qualifying Round |
| 🏟 Venue: | Sumgayit City Stadium, Sumgait |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.07.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
BATE vs AF Elbasani Prediction
The first leg produced a 1-1 draw and neither side has looked convincing in recent weeks. BATE have won just one of their eight matches this year, a 2-1 victory over Belshina in the Belarusian league. AF Elbasani are not exactly in sparkling form either, but their 40% win rate across 30 matches this year gives them a measurable edge in terms of consistency.
The bookmakers price AF Elbasani as the more likely winners at roughly 2.05 average odds, and we agree with that assessment. BATE have struggled to put results together domestically, and a loss to Dinamo Minsk just before this European tie did little for confidence. AF Elbasani, who beat OFK Petrovac 2-1 in their most recent domestic outing before the first leg, showed they can win tight matches on the road.
With both sides sitting on a draw after the first leg, and BATE’s home record offering limited reassurance, we predict AF Elbasani to win or draw here and advance. The match itself is likely to stay low-scoring and competitive, with both teams cautious given the stakes.
Both teams use a 4-3-3 system, which often produces a midfield battle rather than an open game. BATE have committed two yellow cards across their last five matches and AF Elbasani the same, suggesting neither side is particularly aggressive in terms of fouling. Corner kick volume has been slightly higher for AF Elbasani with 10 corners to BATE’s 8 across their last five matches, pointing to a slight edge in attacking set-piece situations.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | AF Elbasani Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
BATE have played eight matches in 2026 and won just one of them. Their form string shows a pattern of inconsistency, mixing wins and losses without any real run of positive results. Their most recent league outing before the European tie was a 0-0 draw against Neman, and prior to that a 0-1 defeat to Dinamo Minsk. The 2-1 win over Belshina stands as their only domestic victory this year. In the context of this European qualifying campaign, BATE are operating well below the level you might expect from a club of their historical standing in Belarusian football.
AF Elbasani’s recent form is more mixed than their overall 2026 numbers suggest. Their last domestic league result before the European games was a heavy 0-3 defeat to Decic, which followed a 2-1 win over Vllaznia and a 0-3 loss to Dinamo Tirana. That sequence shows a team capable of beating decent opposition but also one that can concede heavily against stronger sides. The 2-1 win over OFK Petrovac just before the first leg showed they can grind out results in knockout football, and the 1-1 draw in Elbasan was a reasonable outcome for a team playing at home. Coached by Jeff Strasser, they appear organized and direct in their approach.
🚨Check out our dedicated BATE vs AF Elbasani stats page for more info.
BATE. Source: Official Website
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: AF Elbasani the Favourite
- Moneyline BATE 3.25 | AF Elbasani 2.05
- Draw 3.35
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The odds tell a clear story. AF Elbasani at around 2.05 represent fair value given BATE’s poor domestic form this year and the context of a tie still level after 90 minutes. The draw at 3.35 would send the match to extra time and is a real possibility given how the first leg played out. BATE’s price of 3.25 reflects the home advantage, but their results this season do not justify backing them with confidence. AF Elbasani to qualify is the direction we lean.
BATE are expected to line up in their familiar 4-3-3 shape under Vitaliy Rogozhkin. Danila Sokol takes the goalkeeper spot based on playing time data. The back four picks itself, with Neskoromny and Rakhmanov both logging full minutes across recent matches. Andrey Zhurin carries two yellow cards from his last appearances and is a booking risk here. Egor Kress is the standout name in midfield with two assists in his last two games, and Victorien Angban adds physicality alongside him. Nikolay Mirskiy leads the line up front.
Jeff Strasser will likely stick with the 4-3-3 system that produced the draw in the first leg. Klevis Kasa and Bruno Lulaj are the confirmed defensive starters based on full minutes played. Bledar Lila anchors the midfield and is the player to watch in terms of controlling the game’s rhythm. Arsen Lleshi leads the attack and will need to be sharper than he was in the first leg if AF Elbasani are to take the lead and protect it.
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AF Elbasani. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
This is a match where the stats and form point in one direction. BATE have won just once in eight matches this year and showed nothing in their domestic results before this tie to suggest they are ready to overturn a 1-1 aggregate score against a team that generates more shots and corners per game. AF Elbasani are not a dominant side, their 0-3 defeat to Decic is a reminder of that, but they are more capable of managing a tight knockout tie.
We predict AF Elbasani to win this second leg 1-0 or 2-1, with the match staying under 2.5 goals overall. Both teams to score is a reasonable angle given the first leg result. The best value bet is AF Elbasani on the double chance, covering both a win and a draw, which at current odds gives you a solid return with limited risk given BATE’s form. To be honest, backing BATE here requires more faith in home advantage than their 2026 record deserves.
