Baleares vs Atletico Madrid Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Copa Del Rey Match - 17.12.2025

The Estadio Balear in Palma sets the stage for a fascinating Round of 32 clash in the Copa Del Rey as third-tier side Baleares host La Liga giants Atletico Madrid, on December 17, 2025, with kick-off at 20:00 CEST. While the gulf in pedigree is vast, cup competitions often serve as fertile ground for upsets, particularly in the electric atmosphere of a packed Balearic stadium. Both teams arrive in solid recent form—Baleares, led by coach Luis Blanco, have enjoyed an impressive 83 percent win rate over the last six games, while Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, brimming with continental ambition, boast a diverse and potent squad.

Key figures to monitor include Jaume Tovar of Baleares, whose goal-scoring instincts have proved crucial for his team’s progress, and Alexander Sørloth of Atletico Madrid, whose three goals in the last five matches underline his role as the primary offensive threat.

A standout statistic comes from Atletico’s last five fixtures: they have amassed a remarkable 48 interceptions, more than eight times Baleares’ total, showcasing the Rojiblancos’ pressing intensity and tactical discipline.

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Baleares vs Atletico Madrid predictions

My best bet: Atletico Madrid to win & Over 2.5 goals.
Rationale: A review of both squads’ recent matches and tactical approaches makes an Atletico win the most plausible outcome. Diego Simeone’s men are seasoned campaigners in one-off knockout settings; their ability to control midfield tempo, as seen in their cumulative 2304 passes (1910 completed) across the last five matches, gives them the structure needed to break down stubborn opposition. Meanwhile, Baleares’ defensive frailty—conceding three to Terrassa recently—suggests they may struggle against quality opposition. Given Atletico’s strong lineup and attacking depth, expect them to dictate proceedings early, with enough firepower to surpass the over 2.5 goals mark.

Looking deeper, Baleares typically employs a pragmatic 4-4-2, which has delivered a high work rate (16 corners and 12 fouls in the last five matches) but leaves them vulnerable against technical midfields. Atletico’s aggressive approach has resulted in 54 fouls and nine yellow cards over their last five, reflecting a combative, high-intensity brand of football. Expect Baleares to threaten sporadically on the counter while mostly defending deep, with Atletico’s midfield dominance and wide play likely overwhelming the hosts. Their high foul count may slow the tempo at times but should not derail the visitor’s evident superiority.

• ⚽Total Goals: Over 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

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Baleares vs Atletico Madrid Most recent H2Hs

While recent direct cup clashes are scarce, the contrasting stats vividly highlight how Atletico’s structured, high-tempo pressing game creates more chances (53 shots to 37) and earns significantly more set pieces. Baleares rely on defensive compactness and quick transitions but often concede corners under pressure—a pattern that could repeat here. The Rojiblancos’ ability to win fouls and draw cards from opponents is another factor that may wear down the hosts as the match progresses.

🚨Read our full Baleares vs Atletico Madrid stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Atletico Madrid have scored in every match across all competitions in their last ten games.
• Baleares have managed only one clean sheet in their last five matches.
• Atletico Madrid’s midfield leads the way with 2304 passes in their last five fixtures.
• Baleares have reached double-digit corners only once in their last five matches.
• Alexander Sørloth is Atletico’s top scorer in this cup period with three vital goals.

Baleares vs Atletico Madrid score prediction: 0-3

Expect Atletico Madrid’s quality and depth to shine in this cup tie, with Alexander Sørloth and Antoine Griezmann likely to feature on the scoresheet. Baleares’ disciplined approach can frustrate for periods but the technical gulf, particularly in midfield and forward lines, should prove decisive. Atletico’s defensive structure anchored by Giménez and Hancko also looks well-suited to repel the hosts’ limited forays, leading to a controlled 0-3 away win.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico Madrid the favourite

Atletico Madrid’s short moneyline clearly reflects bookmakers’ faith in their superiority. The inflated odds for Baleares and the draw underscore the expected disparity in class. The value on Over 2.5 goals mirrors this, with the potential for a lopsided affair if Atletico assert early dominance. The “No” on both teams to score is a wise lean, given Baleares’ recent struggles in front of goal and Atletico’s disciplined back line. Betting markets have priced in very limited upset potential.

Baleares vs Atletico Madrid Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Atletico Madrid’s last five matches have seen at least three goals.
• Baleares have conceded at least one goal in four of their last five.
• Atletico’s defensive structure means BTTS rarely lands.
• Baleares average only 1 goal per game in this cup run.
• Atletico’s pressure from set pieces points towards high corner counts.

Baleares Preview

Baleares enter this round after an impressive run, defeating Terrassa 1-3 away despite conceding the first goal. Their resilience was noteworthy, although lapses in concentration cost them against higher-level opposition. Earlier victories—narrow 1-0 wins over Porreres and RCD Espanyol—were built on defensive organization but exposed their limited firepower. Coach Luis Blanco’s pragmatic approach has made them tough to break down at home, yet their record against top-class offenses remains suspect.

Atletico Madrid Preview

Atletico Madrid reached this point courtesy of a hard-fought 2-1 home win over Valencia. Their recent cup performances have featured controlled dominance, with a signature blend of robust defending (anchored by Gianluigi Hancko and Giménez) and dynamic attacking from Alexander Sørloth and Julián Álvarez. Defeats to Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao highlighted vulnerabilities to elite counter-attacks but were closely contested. Simeone will expect his side to impose their high-press and transition game from the outset, abetted by commanding midfield figures like Koke.

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As the TipsGG expert, I strongly favor Atletico Madrid (77 percent AI-projected win probability) to advance. The Rojiblancos’ superior attacking talent, depth, and defensive discipline tip the balance firmly in their favor. Baleares are likely to pose resistance in spells but matching the tempo and tactical acumen of a top La Liga side across 90 minutes is a Herculean challenge. Expect Simeone’s charges to progress emphatically.

How to watch Baleares vs Atletico Madrid

When?
December 17, 2025 – Kick-off: 20:00 CEST

Where?
Estadio Balear, Palma

How to watch: Available via official Copa Del Rey broadcasters and select Spanish sports streaming platforms.

Favorite: Atletico Madrid

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