Bahia vs Paysandu Pa Prediction: 22.05.2025 Copa do Brasil Round 3 Preview

The stage is set at Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador for a pivotal Copa do Brasil Round 3 encounter on 22 May 2025, as Bahia host Paysandu Pa. With Bahia boasting formidable home form and Paysandu Pa eager to defy the odds, this fixture carries significant weight for both teams. What makes this meeting particularly intriguing is Bahia’s recent tactical discipline under Rogério Ceni, contrasting sharply with Paysandu Pa’s resilience in drawing out scrappy results even against stronger opponents. Within the context of Brazil’s fiercely competitive cup, tactical acumen and squad depth may prove the ultimate deciders.

Among the standout performers to watch, Bahia’s Cauly Oliveira Souza represents a potent creative force in midfield, consistently generating opportunities with incisive passing and intelligent movement. In attack, Jorge Benitez remains Paysandu Pa’s most capable threat, known for his sharp positioning and ability to make the most from limited service. Both players are primed to leave their imprint on this clash.

Hot stat: Paysandu Pa were involved in a rare 6-6 draw against Remo in recent weeks, highlighting both attacking potential and defensive fragility—making their matches unpredictable and often dramatic.

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Bahia vs Paysandu Pa prediction

Given the data and current form, the best value lies with a Bahia win. The home side have won six of their last nine matches and remain unbeaten at home in the competition, while Paysandu Pa have mustered only a single win from their past nine fixtures, struggling especially away from home. Bahia’s defensive numbers are solid (41 interceptions and 14 corners in their last five matches), while Paysandu Pa’s recent results show both a lack of cutting edge in front of goal and vulnerability at the back—conceding multiple times, even in draws. The disparity in pass accuracy—Bahia at 86 percent (1788/2085) compared to Paysandu Pa’s 78 percent (771/985)—also indicates that Bahia will likely control possession, dictating tempo and reducing Paysandu Pa’s ability in transition.

Expect Bahia to press early, leverage their high passing tempo, and punish Paysandu Pa’s suspect defense—especially as the visitors have racked up more yellow cards (8 vs 7 for Bahia) and tend to lose concentration when forced deep. Still, Paysandu Pa’s propensity for chaos (recall the 6-6 draw) means both teams might find the net, but Bahia’s structure and quality should see them through comfortably.

Team Analysis

Bahia come into this Copa do Brasil round on surging form, their latest win a hard-fought 2-1 result over Vitoria. Bahia’s well-drilled 4-2-3-1 under Rogério Ceni has proven resilient—even after suffering narrow losses to Atletico Nacional and Flamengo RJ, they have rebounded with defensive solidity and calmness in high-pressure moments, as seen against Botafogo RJ (1-0). The team’s midfield, led by Cauly Oliveira Souza and Jean Lucas, consistently dominates the ball (2085 passes in their last five), while goals have come from both midfield and attack. In terms of discipline, Bahia’s recent yellow and red card counts remain within manageable limits, with only a single red card in their last five outings—even as competitive tension peaks at this stage of the tournament.

Paysandu Pa by contrast have endured a turbulent stretch—drawing four of their last six and securing just one win in their past nine. Their latest outing was a goalless draw with Goias, a match emblematic of both their defensive rigidity and lack of clinical finishing. Yet, their 6-6 draw versus Remo and subsequent hard-fought efforts underline a team willing to ride the emotional rollercoaster and take risks. Under Luizinho Lopes, Paysandu Pa’s reliance on the 4-3-3 system can get exposed, especially in transition, and defensive lapses—highlighted by fewer interceptions (23 in their last five)—should be a concern against Bahia’s incisive attackers.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Bahia vs Paysandu Pa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Bahia the favourite

• Moneyline Bahia 1.36 | Paysandu Pa 8.50
• Draw 4.30
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.76 | Under 2.5 2.05
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.35 | No 1.55

Bahia are deservedly strong favourites given their stellar home record, squad depth, and overall form. The value in backing the home win is clear, though the odds reflect potentially limited upside. The over 2.5 goals market offers solid value as well, given the propensity for entertainment, especially from Paysandu Pa’s attack-and-leak style. Although “Both Teams To Score” carries bigger risk, Paysandu have shown they can capitalize when matches open up. Overall, the odds reinforce Bahia’s status as overwhelming favourites, with all indicators pointing to a high-scoring affair.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Bahia possible starting eleven

Bahia’s preferred 4-2-3-1 formation maximizes their midfield strength and defensive reliability. Marcos Felipe is a consistent presence in goal, protected by the resolute David Duarte and Luciano at center-back, with fullbacks Gabriel and Ramos Mingo offering width and support. Midfield creativity is assured with Jean Lucas and Cauly Oliveira Souza, while Everton Ribeiro brings invaluable vision. Up top, Erick Pulga is an emerging threat—his direct runs and recent goal-scoring make him a player to watch—joined by the ever-dangerous Willian José. Expect Bahia to combine disciplined structure with quick transitions, relying on their cohesive midfield unit.

Paysandu Pa possible starting eleven

Paysandu Pa are likely to stick with their 4-3-3, seeking a balanced approach. Matheus Nogueira should start in goal, supported by the hard-tackling Luan and Patric Calmon in defense. The midfield trio of Matheus Vargas, Leandro Vilela, and Giovanni brings work rate, ball-winning, and sporadic creative surges. In attack, Jorge Benitez is their most reliable goal threat, ably assisted by Nicolas Godinho Johann and Rossi. This setup requires maximum concentration and discipline, as Paysandu Pa will need to limit errors and capitalize on counter-attacks if they are to trouble Bahia’s robust defense.

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My take on the Match

This match looks tailor-made for Bahia’s strengths. Their structured midfield, composed defense, and home advantage put them in pole position to progress. Paysandu Pa’s unpredictability makes them a potential banana skin, but over the course of 90 minutes, Bahia’s balance and quality should prove decisive. My main pick: Bahia -1 Asian Handicap. I expect Bahia to control possession, create more high-quality opportunities, and take advantage of any Paysandu Pa lapses, though don’t discount the visitors from grabbing a consolation in yet another lively contest.

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