Rafael Nogueira
Bahia hosts Gremio in a high-pressure fixture at Arena Fonte Nova. Both clubs desperately seek a turnaround Bahia has slipped, failing to win any of their last six, while Gremio enters with recent momentum but remains stuck near the relegation zone. The home side’s coach Rogério Ceni feels the pressure, having seen his attack falter against weaker opponents, while Luís Castro’s Gremio aims to exploit Bahia’s defensive gaps. Notably, Luciano (Bahia) stands out with 3 goals in his last 5, and Martin Braithwaite (Gremio) leads their line with the same recent tally. Key creators Éverton Ribeiro and Cristian Pavón will likely shape the game’s tempo.
The “hot stat”: Bahia have managed only 0% win rate in the last 30 days, a rare drought for a side expected to compete for continental spots.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador |
| 🗓️ Date: | 17.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Bahia vs Gremio prediction
We predict Bahia to break their winless streak and take all three points. The bookmakers agree Bahia enters as the clear favorite, reflecting superior season-long form and squad depth. Gremio’s away record remains shaky, and their defensive record (17 goals conceded in 15) is a concern when facing Luciano and Willian José. The best value bet is a Bahia win, with potential for over 2.5 goals.
Both sides show moderate aggression: Bahia racks up 15 yellows and 66 fouls in their last five, while Gremio tallies 7 yellows and 60 fouls. Bahia’s higher pass volume (2392 vs 2018) and corner count (39 vs 10) suggest sustained possession and pressure, making them prone to both scoring and conceding. Gremio’s recent red cards may indicate discipline problems under pressure, possibly exploited by Bahia’s midfield.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Bahia to win & Over 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Bahia’s recent run has been disappointing. Their latest match, a 1-2 home loss to Remo, showcased fragile defending and ineffective finishing, despite dominating possession and creating more chances. Previous games saw a pattern of conceding first and chasing the game draws against Sao Paulo and Santos (both 2-2) exposed a lack of composure in defense. Bahia’s goal threat from midfielders like Luciano remains, but the lack of clean sheets raises alarm.
Gremio’s last five have yielded 3 wins, a draw, and a loss. Their latest, a confident 3-0 home win over Confianca, highlighted Braithwaite’s finishing and the creative influence of Pavón and Amuzu. Earlier, a narrow loss to Flamengo RJ (0-1) showed defensive resilience but a lack of attacking risk. The team is disciplined in structure but sometimes lets intensity drop, especially on the road.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Bahia | Gremio |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 68 | 50 |
| Corner kicks | 39 | 10 |
| Total fouls | 66 | 60 |
| Interceptions | 47 | 48 |
| Offsides | 9 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Bahia vs Gremio stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Bahia the favourite
- Moneyline Bahia 1.82 | Gremio 4.42
- Draw 3.62
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.70
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.85
Bookmakers position Bahia as a strong favorite, justified by their home form and squad quality. Gremio’s odds reflect recent away struggles and defensive frailty. The over 2.5 goal market provides value given both teams’ leaky defenses. Both teams to score is well-priced considering attacking output and vulnerabilities.
Possible Starting Lineups
Bahia possible starting eleven
- GK: Léo Vieira
- DF: Luciano, David Duarte, Gilberto, Ramos Mingo
- MF: Nicolas Acevedo, Jean Lucas, Éverton Ribeiro, Erick Luis Conrado Carvalho, Rodrigo Nestor
- FW: Willian José
Léo Vieira has started every recent match and provides composure at the back. The defensive line of Luciano, David Duarte, Gilberto, and Ramos Mingo blends experience and youth, with Luciano offering attacking threat from set-pieces. Acevedo anchors midfield, supported by Jean Lucas and creative spark Éverton Ribeiro. Conrado Carvalho and Nestor bring energy, while Willian José leads the line, supported by their 4-1-4-1 structure.
Gremio possible starting eleven
- GK: Weverton
- DF: Walter Kannemann, Gustavo Martins, Viery, Fabián Balbuena
- MF: Gabriel Mec, Erick Noriega, Leonel Pérez, Cristian Pavón, Francis Amuzu
- FW: Martin Braithwaite
Weverton’s consistency in goal stands out. The defense of Kannemann, Martins, Viery, and Balbuena offers physicality and aerial strength. Midfield pivots around Mec and Noriega for balance, with Leonel Pérez, Pavón, and Amuzu supporting Braithwaite. Gremio typically employs a 4-2-3-1, focusing on quick transitions and Braithwaite’s finishing ability.
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Bahia. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Bahia to win in a match with over 2.5 goals. Bahia’s attack will test Gremio’s defense, and while the visitors have quality up front, Bahia’s home advantage and superior ball control should see them prevail. Expect both teams to score, as neither side has kept a clean sheet in recent outings. Our pick: Bahia 2-1 or 3-1.
