Liam Duckstein
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Azerbaijan welcome Lithuania to the Bakcell Arena in Baku with both sides separated by just two points at the top of League D Group 2. The two already met once this cycle, a 1-1 stalemate that set the tone for a group where nobody seems willing to blink first. Lithuania arrive as the table leaders on four points, Azerbaijan sit second on two, and a draw suits neither side particularly well given how congested the standings already look after just two rounds.
The interesting wrinkle here is that Azerbaijan have now gone two straight matches without scoring a single goal in open play against Lithuania and Liechtenstein combined, yet they remain unbeaten in that stretch. Lithuania, meanwhile, have won their last meeting with minnows Andorra 3-0 but have shown they can also grind out low-key draws when the opposition sits deep, as they did against Latvia.
Mahir Emreli remains the player Azerbaijan lean on up front, with two goals from three games and a team-high 12 shots in that span, making him the most direct scoring threat for the hosts. For Lithuania, A. Kučys has been just as sharp, netting twice with an assist from only six shots across his last three appearances, a conversion rate Azerbaijan’s back line will need to respect closely.
Hot stat: Lithuania have scored four goals from 34 shots in their last five matches, while Azerbaijan have managed only two goals from 43 attempts over the same stretch, a gap that points to Lithuania being the sharper finishing side despite seeing less of the ball.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Nations League 2026/27, League D Group 2 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Bakcell Arena, Baku |
| 🗓️ Date: | 04.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania prediction
We predict another tight, low-scoring affair that mirrors the first meeting between these two sides. Azerbaijan have drawn two of their last three competitive games without conceding, which suggests a defensive solidity that Lithuania will find hard to break down even with their sharper finishing. Lithuania, for their part, have not lost in four of their last five outings, so backing either side outright feels like a stretch. A repeat scoreline or a narrow one-goal margin looks the smarter route, in our view.
Azerbaijan have picked up 39 fouls and eight yellow cards across their last five matches compared to Lithuania’s 44 fouls and three cards, suggesting the visitors commit more challenges but somehow stay more disciplined with the referee. Pass accuracy favours Lithuania too, at roughly 82% compared to Azerbaijan’s 80%, a small margin that could matter in a game this close. Expect a physical, disciplined contest where neither side strings together long spells of pressure, pushing the goal count down rather than up.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Draw No Bet – Azerbaijan |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Azerbaijan’s most recent outing ended goalless against Liechtenstein, a result that extended their run without defeat but also exposed how toothless they can look against a packed defense. In our preview of Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein we leaned toward a routine home win built on set-piece volume, but the 0-0 scoreline went against that call, with Baku failing to find the breakthrough despite dominating possession. Before that, wins over Tajikistan and San Marino showed Azerbaijan can be clinical against weaker sides, but the step up against Lithuania’s tighter shape could produce a similar stalemate.
Lithuania’s last match was a comfortable 3-0 win over Andorra, their most convincing display of the cycle so far and a reminder of the firepower players like Kučys and Dolžnikov bring against open defenses. Before that came the 1-1 draw with Azerbaijan itself. In our preview of Lithuania vs Azerbaijan we called a tight contest with Lithuania shading it or sharing the points under a low goal total, and the 1-1 result with just two goals scored delivered exactly that outcome.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Azerbaijan | Lithuania |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Azerbaijan vs Lithuania stats page for more info.
Lithuania. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Azerbaijan the favourite
- Moneyline Azerbaijan 2.30 | Lithuania 3.25
- Draw 3.00
Bookmakers give Azerbaijan a slight edge largely due to home advantage in Baku, but the gap between all three outcomes is tiny, with draw odds barely above 3.00 reflecting how balanced this fixture really is. We think the market has this about right: Azerbaijan deserve a small price advantage for playing at home, yet Lithuania’s superior recent form and group position keep their odds respectable rather than long-shot territory.
Possible Starting Lineups
Azerbaijan possible starting eleven
- GK: Emil Balayev
- DF: Elvin Badalov, Tellur Mutallimov, Rahil Mammadov
- MF: Aleksey Isaev, Abdulakh khaybulaev, Emin Makhmudov, Emil Safarov
- FW: Mahir Emreli, Rufat Abdullazada, Vüsal İsgändärli
The 3-4-3 shape asks a lot of Mutallimov defensively given his two assists already point to an attacking license, while Emreli leads the line as the clear focal point. Khaybulaev’s passing volume in midfield should help Azerbaijan control tempo at home.
Lithuania possible starting eleven
- GK: Džiugas Bartkus
- DF: Justas Lasickas, Kipras Kazukolovas, Edgaras Utkus, Artemijus Tutyskinas, Vilius Armalas
- MF: Vykintas Slivka, Gvidas Gineitis, Modestas Vorobjovas, Lukas Michelbrink
- FW: A. Kučys
Jankauskas’s 5-4-1 setup prioritizes a compact back line, with Gineitis expected to carry most of the creative burden from midfield given his assist and shot numbers. Kučys stands alone up top and will need service to replicate his recent efficiency in front of goal.
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Azerbaijan. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a cagey draw in Baku, perhaps settling at 1-1 again or finishing goalless given how both sides have performed in their last outings. Azerbaijan’s home comfort and defensive solidity should cancel out Lithuania’s sharper finishing, and neither coach looks likely to gamble given how tight the group table remains. To be honest, a draw no bet on Azerbaijan combined with under 2.5 goals feels like the shrewdest way to approach this one rather than picking a straight winner.
Read also: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form as of 3 Oct 2026
Read also: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Team News and Predicted Lineups: Who Starts?
