Alex MacQuoid
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AZ Alkmaar sit top of the Eredivisie table without dropping a single point through five rounds, and honestly, this fixture against Willem II looks like a mismatch on paper. Lee-Roy Echteld’s men have scored 16 goals already this season, more than any other club in the division, while Willem II arrive at the AFAS Stadion having won zero of their last four outings. There’s an odd little wrinkle here though: the last two head-to-head meetings between these clubs were split, with Willem II actually winning the more recent one back in late 2024. That history won’t count for much given the current gulf in form, but it’s the sort of detail that keeps punters from getting too comfortable with heavy favourites.
Two names worth watching closely. Mexx Meerdink has been AZ’s most productive attacker in the last five games with two goals and an assist, and his movement between the lines tends to drag Willem II’s back four out of shape. On the other side, Uriël van Aalst is really the only Willem II player who has consistently threatened, netting once in his last three appearances despite his side’s collapse defensively. If Willem II are going to nick anything from this game, it likely runs through him.
Hot stat: AZ Alkmaar have won all five of their Eredivisie matches this term while conceding just five goals in total, a defensive record matched by nobody else in the current top ten. Willem II, meanwhile, have scored only four goals across their entire opening four fixtures and have failed to keep a clean sheet once.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eredivisie 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar |
| 🗓️ Date: | 11.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II prediction
We think the value here isn’t really on the moneyline, since AZ at odds close to 1.10-1.16 barely moves the needle for anyone’s bankroll. The smarter play, in our opinion, is backing AZ with an Asian handicap of -2 or even wagering on AZ to win both halves. Given the size of the gap between these two sides right now, and the fact AZ have scored at least two goals in every single home fixture this season, a straightforward win alone doesn’t reflect how one-sided this could get.
Style-wise, the numbers tell a clear story. AZ have racked up 86 total shots across their last five matches compared to Willem II’s 38, roughly double the output. AZ’s passing accuracy sits around 86-87%, considerably tidier than Willem II’s, whose passing has been sloppier under pressure (accuracy hovering closer to 75%). Fouls and cards are fairly even between the two clubs, five yellows for AZ against three for Willem II in that same stretch, so we don’t expect this to be a especially chippy affair. It should be a game where AZ dominate territory and Willem II are forced into deeper, more reactive defending, which tends to produce fouls concentrated around the box rather than across the pitch.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | AZ Alkmaar -2 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 3.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
AZ Alkmaar’s recent run reads like a form graph gone straight up. Four wins from four in the last month, and their most recent result was a 3-2 win over Heerenveen where they conceded twice but never really looked in danger of dropping points. Before that came a 5-2 demolition of GA Eagles, a clean 2-0 win against Fortuna Sittard, and a 4-1 romp past Utrecht. The pattern across all four is the same: AZ get ahead early and then control the tempo, letting their possession numbers do the damage. Ro Zangelo Daal has been central to that, with three goals in his last four league appearances, and Mateo Chávez has quietly chipped in three assists from a wing-back role.
Willem II’s picture is basically the opposite. Their last match ended 0-3 away at Excelsior, a game where they managed just a handful of shots and looked disorganized defensively for long stretches. Go back further and it’s more of the same: a 2-2 draw with Heerenveen that they arguably should have lost, a 1-4 hammering by Nijmegen, and another 1-4 defeat to GA Eagles. Only their win-free run against OFI Crete (a 2-1 loss, ironically their best defensive showing of the bunch) offers any silver lining. John Stegeman’s side have now failed to win any of their last four, and their away form specifically has been alarmingly leaky, conceding multiple goals in three of those four fixtures.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | AZ Alkmaar | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: AZ Alkmaar the favourite
- Moneyline AZ Alkmaar 1.13 | Willem II 15.00
- Draw 8.20
Bookmakers have priced this about as lopsided as it gets, with AZ implied at roughly 83% to win outright. That tracks with everything we’ve seen from both squads this season, honestly. The draw odds sitting near 8.20 look almost generous given how rarely Willem II have even competed for long stretches this year, but that’s probably just bookmakers protecting against an off-day for the hosts, which happens even to the best teams occasionally.
Possible Starting Lineups
AZ Alkmaar possible starting eleven
- GK: Jari De Busser
- DF: Lewis Schouten, Wouter Goes, Elijah Dijkstra, Mateo Chávez
- MF: Dave Kwakman, Peer Koopmeiners, Kees Smit, Calvin Stengs
- FW: Ro Zangelo Daal, Mexx Meerdink
Echteld sticks with his 4-2-3-1 shape here, the same setup that’s carried AZ through an unbeaten start. Koopmeiners and Kwakman anchor midfield well, both averaging heavy pass volumes without much fuss, and Stengs’ creativity from the left half-space has been a constant thread through the last month. Daal up top is the man to watch, he’s been finishing well above his shot volume would suggest, which usually means confidence is high.
Willem II possible starting eleven
- GK: Karst de Leeuw
- DF: Finn Stam, Nathan Tjoe-A-On, Alessandro Ciranni, Hidde ter Avest
- MF: Per van Loon, kasper boogaard, Jaden Slory, Eser Gürbüz
- FW: Uriël van Aalst, Devin Haen
Stegeman keeps faith in a mirrored 4-2-3-1, though truthfully the personnel hasn’t produced results lately. Tjoe-A-On picked up a yellow card last time out and needs to be careful against AZ’s quick forward rotations. Van Aalst and Haen up front are really the only two who’ve shown any consistent attacking output, one goal apiece in their last three, so a lot rests on their shoulders if Willem II want to avoid a heavy defeat here.
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Willem II. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We’re expecting AZ Alkmaar to win this one comfortably. Their attack has been ruthless at home, their defense has barely been tested, and Willem II simply haven’t shown enough in recent weeks to suggest they can stay in this contest past the opening half hour. Maybe Willem II grab a consolation goal late once AZ ease off the gas, but going by everything in the data, a heavy home win with plenty of goals feels like the safest read here. Our lean stays on AZ by two or more goals, over 3.5 total goals, and a corner count that leans well past nine given how much territory AZ tend to dominate against sides sitting deep.
