Arjun Menon
With the 2025/26 Eredivisie campaign kicking into high gear, AZ Alkmaar aim to consolidate their early-season form as they host PEC Zwolle at the AFAS Stadion. The home side, under Maarten Martens, seek to build on their unbeaten run, while Henry van der Vegt’s struggling Zwolle will be desperate to halt a losing streak and signal competitiveness in the top flight.
Among several intriguing player matchups, all eyes will be on Mexx Meerdink, AZ’s prolific forward, and PEC’s creative force Kaj de Rooij, who scored his team’s only goal in the last five matches—a shortage highlighting Zwolle’s attacking struggles.
A “hot stat” for this fixture: in their last five encounters, AZ Alkmaar have scored at least two goals in every match against PEC Zwolle. This attacking consistency puts the visitors’ defense under the microscope once more and shapes the narrative of this encounter.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Eredivisie 2025/26 Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar |
| 🗓️ Date: | 24.09.2025 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
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AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle prediction
Given their remarkable home form and scoring reliability, all signs point towards AZ Alkmaar securing a dominant result. A bet on AZ Alkmaar -1.5 in the Asian Handicap provides excellent value, considering both historical head-to-head dominance and PEC Zwolle’s ongoing struggles to find the net.
AZ’s recent displays—scoring ten goals in five matches and maintaining high pass accuracy (85.5%)—contrast sharply with Zwolle’s single-goal output over the same period. AZ’s offensive structure, fuelled by versatile attackers and energy in midfield, likely proves too much for PEC’s faltering backline. Meanwhile, Zwolle’s high foul rate and limited offensive output are likely to hinder their ability to get back into games—especially against an Alkmaar side comfortable in possession.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | AZ Alkmaar -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
AZ’s attacking philosophy is reflected in their 23 corner kicks over five matches (over 4.5 per game), their ability to draw fouls in advanced areas, and patience in build-up. In contrast, PEC Zwolle’s 27 fouls and only seven corners underscore defensive pressure and a lack of momentum, which further tips the scales.
Team Analysis
AZ Alkmaar are coming off a breathless 3-3 draw against Feyenoord, showing both resilience and a willingness to press for goals right until the last minute. Prior to this, wins against Heracles (2-1) and NAC Breda (1-0) highlighted a side capable of grinding out results as well as dominating lesser opposition. Their last five matches showcase a robust blend of attack and control, with leading figures like Meerdink and Sadiq stepping up at key moments.
PEC Zwolle have endured a torrid run, most recently falling 0-2 to GA Eagles. This capped a trio of consecutive losses, in which goals have been hard to come by. Their one recent highlight, a goal by Kaj de Rooij against Ajax, was offset by defensive lapses. Despite some disciplined performances from defenders like Simon Graves Jensen and Olivier Aertssen, recent outings have underscored Zwolle’s difficulty converting chances and coping with sustained attacking pressure from top-tier Eredivisie sides.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | AZ Alkmaar | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 1 |
| Total shots | 19 | 9 |
| Free kicks | 13 | 15 |
| Corner kicks | 13 | 5 |
| Total fouls | 15 | 22 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 86 | 74 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 17 |
| Offsides | 4 | 3 |
🚨Read our full AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle stats for more analysis.
Pre-game odds and win probability: AZ Alkmaar the favourite
- Moneyline AZ Alkmaar 1.33 | PEC Zwolle 8.00
- Draw 5.20
- Over/Under Over 2.5 1.64 | Under 2.5 2.30
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.65
The odds strongly favor AZ Alkmaar, reflective of their superior form and historical dominance. Zwolle’s offensive woes and defensive vulnerabilities have prompted bookmakers to offer long odds for an away win. The Over 2.5 marker remains attractive due to AZ’s prolific attack, while “No” for BTTS stands out given PEC’s current scoring troubles and AZ’s disciplined defensive work—backed up by their recent home performance metrics.
You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.
Possible Starting Lineups
AZ Alkmaar possible starting eleven
- GK: Hobie Verhulst
- DF: Denso Kasius, Alexandre Penetra, Wouter Goes, Mees de Wit
- MF: Jordy Clasie, Sven Mijnans, Kees Smit
- FW: Ibrahim Sadiq, Mexx Meerdink, Ro Zangelo Daal
AZ Alkmaar are expected to maintain their tried-and-tested 4-3-3 setup, prioritizing width and aggressive pressing. Meerdink’s clinical finishing and Sadiq’s direct runs provide cutting edge, while Clasie’s experience anchors the midfield. Watch for Mijnans—his box-to-box energy often opens up transitions.
PEC Zwolle possible starting eleven
- GK: Tom Gerard de Graaff
- DF: Olivier Aertssen, Garcia MacNulty, Simon Graves Jensen, Sherel Floranus
- MF: Ryan Thomas, Thijs Oosting, Jamiro Monteiro
- FW: Kaj de Rooij, Koen Kostons, Dylan Mbayo
PEC Zwolle should also line up in a 4-3-3, designed for structural discipline. De Graaff’s role as shot-stopper will be pivotal. Key men include creative outlet de Rooij and industrious Thomas, though the side’s main challenge remains transitioning from defensive phases to meaningful attacks on the break.
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PEC Zwolle. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
The Verdict
My main pick is AZ Alkmaar to win with a -1.5 Asian Handicap. Their attacking cohesion, home advantage, and superior squad depth should prove decisive. PEC Zwolle, limited in both attack and transitions, face a tough night in Alkmaar. Unless they resolve recent defensive frailties and spark some attacking synergy, it’s hard to see anything but a convincing home win. For betting enthusiasts, the value lies in combining the AZ win with over 2.5 goals.
