Auxerre vs Rennais Prediction: 22.02.2026 Ligue 1

This Ligue 1 fixture sees Auxerre face off against Rennais at the historical Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps. While both clubs are steeped in French football tradition, this matchup offers a fascinating subplot: two sides struggling for consistency but not short of ambition. Auxerre, led by Christophe Pélissier, seek to claw their way clear of relegation peril; Rennais under Franck Haise remain in pursuit of European qualification amid peaks and valleys in form. The balance of power is tight, and recent performances suggest a compelling tactical struggle is on the cards.

All eyes will be on Esteban Lepaul for Rennais, whose recent burst of goals has provided a glimmer of attacking promise, and Kevin Danois for Auxerre, whose knack for popping up in key moments signals an ability to disrupt even the most disciplined opposition lines. With both teams forced to grit their teeth in tough matches lately, this encounter just could pivot on either’s moment of individual brilliance.

The “hot stat”? Rennais, for all their patchy results, have created a staggering 66 total shots across their last five games by far the highest attacking output between these two. If finishing matches their opportunity, they’ll take some stopping.

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Auxerre vs Rennais prediction

The smart money leans slightly in favour of Rennais, and it’s easy to see why. Their sheer volume of attacking play 66 total shots over the last five indicates offensive confidence, even if the results haven’t always followed. Auxerre, meanwhile, come off a morale-boosting 3-1 win over Metz but have scored just three goals in their last five.

With Rennais enjoying superior ball retention (over 1800 completed passes to Auxerre’s 1200 in recent matches) and a greater average pass accuracy, one expects Haise’s side to dictate the tempo. However, this matches up interestingly with their defensive discipline or lack thereof: 68 fouls and 10 yellow cards in five outings suggests vulnerabilities that a hungry Auxerre side will hunt with intent.

Auxerre’s 4-2-3-1 promises solid midfield protection but a lack of spark up top; Rennais’ 4-3-3, conversely, should allow them to flood the wings and stretch the game late on. “Both teams to score” feels plausible, yet Rennais’ edge in firepower tilts the outcome their way especially if Lepaul and Embolo can exploit spaces left on the counter.

Team Analysis

Auxerre Recent Games

Auxerre found a much-needed boost in their last match, dispatching Metz 3-1 at home. This was a welcome tonic after a run of dull draws and narrow defeats (0-0 vs Paris, 0-0 vs Toulouse, 0-1 v both PSG and Lens). The Metz victory saw Auxerre at their most aggressive, capitalising on lapses to score thrice but it should be noted that was against one of the league’s weakest defenses. Scoring remains a major challenge, with just three in five matches, and their talisman, Lassine Sinayoko, is yet to hit top gear.

Rennais Recent Games

Rennais, too, ended a tough sequence with a flourish: a shock 3-1 win over PSG, powered by attacking verve and discipline. Yet that high was immediately checked by a string of losses (1-3 to Lens, 0-3 to Marseille, 0-4 to Monaco, 0-2 to Lorient). Despite the unimpressive results, Rennais continue to rack up chances only their wasteful finishing and defensive lapses let them down lately. Esteban Lepaul and Breel Embolo provide a dual threat up front; the team’s 23 corners and 68 fouls in five games show just how frantic their approach can become.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Auxerre vs Rennais stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Rennais the favourite

• Moneyline Auxerre 3.00 | Rennais 2.40
• Draw 3.35
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.05 | Under 2.5 1.70
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.97 | No 1.78

Generally, bookmakers are tilting in Rennais’ direction for one major reason: attacking output and higher points haul this year (38% win rate to Auxerre’s 17%). With over 30% chance estimated for Auxerre there’s still some respect for their home resilience especially after putting three past Metz last time out. The odds for a draw are invitingly high given both sides’ recent penchant for stalemates, but Rennais’ superior goalscoring threat and midfield control tip the scales.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Auxerre possible starting eleven

Auxerre will likely keep faith with the tried-and-tested 4-2-3-1 shape, looking for passing solidity in the middle (Owusu and Danois) and hoping Sekou Mara can add sharpness up front. Eyes should be on Kevin Danois, whose energy and late runs could be crucial against Rennais’ aggressive but sometimes careless midfield. Full-backs Sy and Mensah offer a bit of width but must be wary of the Rennais counter.

Rennais possible starting eleven

Expect Rennais to deploy their established 4-3-3, with Lepaul driving centrally and Taamari, Embolo flanking him. The combination of attacking weapons and the midfield’s passing range puts Rennais at an advantage in controlling phases of play and striking quickly in transition. Keep your attention on Lepaul not just for his recent goal tally, but his movement creates valuable space for others and can be a nightmare for any defense.

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The Verdict

Our expert take? The signs all point to a Rennais performance built on patient possession and direct wing play, with Lepaul and Embolo spearheading dynamic attacks. Auxerre’s set-piece threat may yield a nervy moment or two, but their bluntness in open play plus Rennais’ volume of attempts makes a visiting victory or at least a draw no bet on Rennais the clever pick. Expect a hard-fought, tense battle, with quality in transition likely to settle it. Rennais to edge it, but not without sweat!

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