Liam Duckstein
| Prefer us on Google — see Tips.gg in Top Stories & Discover | Add on Google |
Saturday evening at Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps brings together two teams travelling in opposite directions. Auxerre were dismantled 5-1 in Strasbourg last weekend. Paris beat Monaco 3-1 a few hours later, their most complete performance in weeks. The historical twist makes this fixture interesting: Paris have drawn both of their last two league meetings with Auxerre, 1-1 and 0-0, so the fourth-placed visitors own no recent win over the side sitting 14th.
Watch Lassine Sinayoko for the visitors. Four goals and four assists in his last five matches make him the most productive attacker on the pitch. Cameron Archer answers for the hosts with three goals in the same span. The hot stat belongs to the Auxerre defence, though: 14 goals conceded across five matches, nine of them in the last two. That number drives every tip below.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Ligue 1 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Stade de l’Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.11.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Auxerre vs Paris prediction
We predict a Paris win, and we rate the 1.80 on offer as fair value rather than a trap. Bookmakers make the visitors 53% favourites, and our estimate sits a touch higher once the defensive gap is weighed. Auxerre lost their two recent fixtures against quality opposition by an aggregate 2-9. Rennes beat them 4-1, Strasbourg ran away with a 5-1. Paris, fresh from beating Monaco, are comfortably the strongest team Auxerre have faced in this entire run. The 4.17 on the hosts is there for a reason.
Style points reinforce the call. Paris complete 86% of their passes over the last five games, Auxerre just 81%, so Liam Rosenior’s side will own the ball for long stretches. Auxerre foul more, 66 to 56, and Will Still will want aggressive challenges to break Paris’s tempo. Discipline cuts both ways. Paris collected 13 yellow cards in five matches, the card-prone unit in this fixture, so a combative home press could push that figure higher.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Paris to win & both teams to score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
The goals combo writes itself. Auxerre have scored in all five of their recent matches, and Paris have kept zero clean sheets in that window, conceding in every single game. Over 2.5 follows from the hosts’ 2.8 goals conceded per match. Corners stay modest, both teams average just over three per game, so under 9.5 is our lean.
Team Analysis
Auxerre’s recent run holds two wins, a draw and two defeats: a 4-3 escape against Clermont, a 1-4 beating by Rennes, a 3-1 win over Le Havre, a 1-1 draw with Le Mans and then the 5-1 collapse in Strasbourg. The last match matters most. Auxerre never settled, conceded five times, and did it against a Strasbourg team that had lost four straight before kickoff. That is not a bad day at the office, that is a defence in free fall.
A pattern sits underneath the results. Auxerre beat Clermont, Le Havre and Le Mans, the three weakest sides on their schedule, and lost heavily to Rennes and Strasbourg, the two strongest. In our preview of Strasbourg vs Auxerre we expected both teams to score with Strasbourg holding the upper hand, and the 5-1 result delivered it. Paris are stronger than either of those teams. To be honest, the hosts look like live underdogs only on paper.
Paris’s last five bring three wins and two defeats: a 2-1 win over Strasbourg, a shock 0-1 loss to Lorient, a wild 4-3 win against Rennes, a 1-2 defeat at Lens and then the 3-1 statement against Monaco. The Monaco performance was their best of the stretch. They outshot a top-six opponent, scored three times and controlled the tempo, with Sinayoko central to everything good. Rosenior finally got 90 balanced minutes after weeks of defensive sloppiness.
The flaw remains at the back. Paris have conceded in all five of those games, eight in total, and 13 yellow cards in five matches point to a defence that fouls when it panics. They also lost to Lorient and Lens inside this window, so the 50% winrate carries an asterisk. In our preview of Paris vs Monaco we tipped Monaco to avoid defeat with both teams scoring, and the 3-1 result went against us. The goals half landed, the Monaco half did not, and we own that miss.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Auxerre | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1 | 1 |
Two league meetings last season produced two draws. The November 2025 game finished 1-1 and the February 2026 return ended 0-0. One goal apiece across 180 minutes says these clubs have matched each other closely, whatever the table claimed.
🚨Check out our dedicated Auxerre vs Paris stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Paris the favourite
- Moneyline Auxerre 4.17 | Paris 1.80
- Draw 3.93
Average prices across the major books land at 4.17 for Auxerre, 3.93 for the draw and 1.80 for Paris, an implied 55% away win chance against the 53% consensus. The draw deserves a mention because these sides drew both league meetings last season. We still pass on it. Auxerre’s collapse against the two best teams they faced, and the absence of any clean sheet for Paris, make a third straight stalemate unlikely at these prices. The away win is where the value sits.
Possible Starting Lineups
Auxerre possible starting eleven
- GK: Paul Nardi
- DF: Clément Akpa, Axel Tuanzebe, Lamine Sy, Fredrik Oppegard
- MF: Kevin Danois, Naouirou Ahamada, Romain Faivre
- FW: Aristide Zossou, Cameron Archer, Danny Namaso
Will Still’s 4-3-3 picks itself on the minutes. Nardi keeps goal ahead of Mamadou Diop with eight saves in his last four starts. Tuanzebe and Oppegard have played every minute of the last five matches, so their spots are untouchable. Faivre is the engine, 12 shots and two assists in four games, and he takes the set pieces. Archer and Namaso carry the scoring load with five goals between them. Zossou, perhaps, keeps his wide spot despite sparse minutes, with Rayan Mandengue the alternative if Still wants fresh legs.
Paris possible starting eleven
- GK: Kevin Trapp
- DF: Hamari Traore, Diego Coppola, Samir Chergui, Moustapha Mbow, Otavio
- MF: Maxime López, Pierre Lees Melou, Ilan Kebbal
- FW: Pablo Pagis, Lassine Sinayoko
Rosenior’s 3-4-2-1 almost writes itself. Trapp has started three straight and made nine saves, so he edges Obed Nkambadio. Coppola has played every minute and anchors the back three with Chergui and Mbow, Traore and Otavio provide the width, and López runs the game from deep with 350 passes at 91% accuracy across four matches. Kebbal and Pagis operate behind Sinayoko, whose four goals and four assists make him the danger man. Luca Koleosho and Rudy Matondo are the fresh legs if Paris chase the game late.
🏅Tips.GG premium subscription brings you even closer to WIN!🏅
- Gain access to the most profitable bets by using our analysis of over 60,000 monthly predictions from 1000+ sources.
- Premium users enjoy predictions from tipsters with the highest win rate while also gaining access to favorable odds, outcome calculation, and quick filter to favorable odds.
- Unlock the “Golden Bet” – our unique formula for the best high-odd betting opportunities! Get detailed reports on our system’s performance, including Winrate, ROI, and Yield.
Auxerre. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
Everything points one way. Paris are ten places and seven points better off, they carry a 53% bookmaker probability, they just beat Monaco convincingly, and Auxerre conceded five to a struggling Strasbourg side. The only argument for the hosts is history, two straight draws in this fixture, and history does not stop a defence leaking 2.8 goals per game. We predict a 1-2 Paris win with both teams scoring, and 1-3 is live if the collapse continues. Back the away win, add the goals markets, and let Sinayoko do the rest.
