Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca Prediction: August 24, 2026 Liga MX Apertura

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Atletico San Luis and Pachuca meet in San Luis Potosí in a match that pits the Liga MX table’s second-worst side against a team sitting just one place above the relegation zone. Both clubs have endured miserable form over the past month, but the stakes differ sharply: San Luis have not won any of their last seven matches, while Pachuca at least carry a marginally stronger pedigree this season with a 52% win rate in 2026. A loss here for the hosts could see them drop dangerously close to the bottom, making this more than a routine midweek fixture. Rafael Llorente leads the San Luis attack with two goals in five matches, while Salomón Rondón gives Pachuca a genuine aerial and physical threat up front, scoring twice and drawing four offsides in five games.

A hot stat worth flagging: Pachuca have committed 68 fouls across their last five matches, the highest in this fixture’s context, averaging nearly 14 per game. That foul count has generated 45 free kicks against them and contributed to two red cards, a pattern that could influence the flow of this match significantly.

Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca Prediction

Pachuca are the bookmakers’ pick at odds ranging from 2.05 to 2.42, and the underlying numbers back that preference. San Luis have scored only five goals across their last five matches and have failed to win any of their past seven. Pachuca’s attack, led by Rondón and supported by Oussama Idrissi, who has one goal and one assist, generates more volume with 92 total shots compared to San Luis’s 72 in the same span.

San Luis operate in a 4-2-3-1 shape, relying on disciplined defensive lines, but their 42 fouls in five games suggest they struggle to win the ball cleanly. Pachuca’s 3-4-3 creates width and overloads in transition, which should expose San Luis’s flanks. The hosts’ pass accuracy of 89.7% (2402 of 2678) is actually competitive, but they convert very little of that possession into genuine danger.

Pachuca’s disciplinary record is a concern for them as a team, two red cards and 12 yellow cards in five matches means they could be reduced in numbers or forced into passive play. San Luis may benefit from set pieces in that scenario. Still, the quality gap is real.

• We predict Pachuca to win this match, with their attacking depth and superior season record making them the value pick despite poor recent form.
• We also lean toward Over 2.5 goals, as both teams have shown defensive vulnerability throughout the Apertura.
• Given both sides’ leaky defenses, Both Teams to Score: Yes carries appeal, particularly with San Luis scoring in four of their last five.

San Luis’s high pass accuracy does not translate into goals, and their winless run stretching back seven games reflects a structural problem rather than bad luck. Pachuca, even at their current low ebb, have the individual quality to take three points on the road.

Team Analysis

Atletico San Luis are in freefall. Their last five matches produced just five goals, zero wins, and a 5-7 thrashing by Orlando City in a friendly that exposed their defensive fragility. The most recent competitive result, a 0-3 home loss to Club América, was particularly damning. Against one of the league’s top sides, San Luis offered almost nothing going forward and were punished heavily. David Rodriguez and Rafael Llorente each carry two goals from those five games, making them the only reliable attacking contributors, but the service around them from midfield is inconsistent. Miguel García and Sebastien Salles-Lamonge dominate the midfield minutes but have zero goals and zero assists between them in this stretch.

Pachuca’s own form is far from convincing. Their last five matches brought just one win, a 1-0 result against Charlotte, sandwiched by defeats to Puebla (2-3), Columbus Crew (1-2), FC Cincinnati (1-3), and Club León (0-1). The loss to Puebla is the most recent and most damaging, a home defeat to a side sitting fifth in the table. Salomón Rondón leads their scoring with two goals, and Idrissi adds craft on the wing, but the team has conceded ten goals in four of their last five outings. Carlos Moreno in goal has made 14 saves, suggesting he has been overworked rather than at fault. The 3-4-3 system under Benjamín Mora creates attacking intent but leaves the backline exposed, especially on the wings.

Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches

Across the four most recent head-to-head meetings, Pachuca lead with six goals to San Luis’s four. The series includes a 2-1 San Luis win in the 2025 Clausura and a 1-1 draw earlier this year in the 2026 Clausura, showing this fixture can go either way despite the quality gap on paper.

🚨Check out our dedicated Atletico San Luis vs Pachuca stats page for more info.

Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Pachuca the Favourite

• Moneyline Atletico San Luis 3.20 | Pachuca 2.12
• Draw 3.45
• Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A

Pachuca at 2.12 with Stake or 2.05 with Bet365 reflects the bookmakers’ clear lean, and to be honest, it is justified. San Luis at 3.20 is tempting given the home advantage, but their winless run across seven matches removes any serious case for backing them. The draw at 3.45 is interesting given the head-to-head produced a draw as recently as March 2026, and both teams are low on confidence right now. Pinnacle’s 3.67 on the draw stands out as the best price if you lean that way. For Pachuca straight win value, Bet365’s 2.05 is a slight undercut compared to the market average, while Pinnacle at 2.14 offers more room.

Possible Starting Lineups

Atletico San Luis Possible Starting Eleven

Diego Mejía is likely to stick with the 4-2-3-1 that has been the team’s base shape. Andrés Sánchez is the first-choice goalkeeper with eight saves in five games. The back four writes itself given appearances, with Román Torres providing a creative outlet from right back via one assist. In midfield, Miguel García’s 318 passes and six interceptions make him the engine, while Salles-Lamonge covers the most ground at 279 passes. Up front, David Rodriguez and Rafael Llorente are the only players with goals, and both must start. Pérez Bouquet adds a goal threat from midfield with one goal in five appearances.

Pachuca Possible Starting Eleven

Benjamín Mora has used a 3-4-3 in recent matches, but the personnel here suggests he may shift to a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 on the road. Carlos Moreno is the undisputed starter with 14 saves. Eduardo Dos Santos leads all defenders with 256 passes and seven interceptions across five games. Mauricio Isais adds defensive intensity with seven interceptions and eight shots from deep. Salomón Rondón leads the attack with two goals and four offsides drawn, his hold-up play a key outlet. Idrissi’s combination of a goal, an assist, and nine shots makes him the most dangerous wide player in this fixture. Javier Vallejo, with ten total shots, could feature as a secondary forward or wide option off the bench.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

Pachuca arrive in worse shape than their season record suggests, but Atletico San Luis are in a deeper crisis. Seven matches without a win, a goal difference of -4 in the Apertura after four games, and a roster that generates shots without converting them paints a bleak picture for the hosts. Pachuca’s attacking trio of Rondón, Idrissi, and Bautista, who has one goal and 120 passes in five games, should create enough to find the net at Estadio Libertad Financiera.

The head-to-head shows Pachuca winning two of the last four meetings, with the most recent draw coming in March 2026. Given both teams’ current defensive issues, goals from both sides is a real possibility, but Pachuca’s superior attacking output and individual quality across the squad make them the pick to take all three points. We predict a Pachuca win, with both teams scoring and the match finishing with at least three goals total.

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