Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas Predictions: Odds and betting tips for Copa Colombia 2025 Quarterfinals Match - 23.10.2025

The quarterfinal clash of Copa Colombia 2025 brings a high-stakes encounter to Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín, on October 23, 2025, with kick-off scheduled for 02:00 CEST. Atletico Nacional, enjoying home advantage, face a determined Once Caldas in what promises to be a contest defined by strategy, discipline, and a place in Colombian football’s final four. Both Diego Arias and Hernán Herrera bring tactical ingenuity from the touchline, but the momentum and pressure of knockout football will test the poise and adaptability of their squads in front of an expectant Medellín crowd.

Key players to watch include Jorman Campuzano, whose midfield dynamism anchors Nacional’s transitions on both sides of the ball, and Michael Barrios for Once Caldas, whose speed and creativity will be vital in breaking down Nacional’s defensive structure. These influential figures — adept at influencing tempo and creating decisive moments — could hold the keys to unlocking this tie.

Notably, Atletico Nacional remain unbeaten in their last six matches across all competitions, highlighting their robust competitive form coming into this quarterfinal.

🏅Best bets for Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas at Thunderpick with a Welcome offer +100% up to 600€💰

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas predictions

Me best bet: Atletico Nacional to win.
Atletico Nacional’s consistency, especially at home, and their tactical discipline under Diego Arias, makes them the strongest pick here. While Once Caldas have shown flashes of attacking quality, especially on the counter, Nacional’s superior recent form — four wins and two draws in their last six matches — and unbeaten record in this period point to sustained confidence and control. Once Caldas, by contrast, arrive with three wins offset by five defeats in their last eight, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that Nacional are well-equipped to exploit, particularly via set pieces and structured transitions.

Both teams commonly deploy a 4-1-4-1 formation lately, emphasizing midfield solidity and calculated wing play. However, Atletico Nacional’s slightly higher foul and yellow card counts suggest aggressive pressing, which could both disrupt Once Caldas’ build-up and present set-piece opportunities for both sides. Nacional’s ball possession and pass accuracy (averaging 1528 passes with 83.8 percent accuracy in their last five matches) underpins their ability to control tempo at home, while Once Caldas’ slightly more direct route to attack may leave defensive gaps, especially if forced to chase the game. Expect a physical contest, with tactical fouls and a number of set-piece chances as a recurring theme.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 2.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 9.5

Best bets this month available at Thunderpick

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas Most recent H2Hs

Head-to-head encounters paint a picture of Atletico Nacional’s upper hand in recent meetings: three wins and a draw to Nacional in the last five, with only one loss to Once Caldas (from 2024). Defensive control is clearly on display with Nacional conceding just twice across this sample, while Once Caldas have struggled to break down Nacional’s back line. Extracted from both league and cup ties, these matches typically feature tight margins and fewer than three goals — a pattern likely to repeat, given current form and tactical setups.

🚨Read our full Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Atletico Nacional unbeaten in last 6 matches (4 wins, 2 draws).
• Once Caldas suffered 5 defeats in last 8 matches.
• Last 5 H2Hs: Nacional unbeaten vs Caldas (4 wins, 1 draw).
• Combined yellow cards in last 5 matches: 33 (Nacional 18, Caldas 15) — expect a physical match.
• Average corners per team: Over 5 per game in the last five matches for both sides.
• Once Caldas have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches vs Nacional.
• Nacional have conceded more than 1 goal just once in their last 10 meetings.

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas score prediction: 2-0

Expect Atletico Nacional to leverage home advantage and form, with offensive impetus from the likes of Jorman Campuzano and Mateus Uribe pushing the tempo and controlling transitions. Once Caldas’ defensive lapses and inconsistent scoring demonstrate vulnerabilities Nacional can exploit, particularly in the second half. Key defensive contributions from William Tesillo and Andres Roman should help keep Caldas’ attack at bay, while offensive creativity gives Nacional the edge.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico Nacional the favourite

Bookmakers position Atletico Nacional as clear favourites — a view substantiated by form, historical dominance, and a reinforced squad. The low odds for a home win reflect both their recent unbeaten streak and Caldas’ away inconsistencies. Under 2.5 goals is also favoured, matching the low-scoring trend in recent encounters, while “Both Teams to Score: No” reflects Nacional’s defensive solidity and Caldas’ trouble unlocking top-tier defences away from Manizales.

Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas Over/Under Analysis

• Under 2.5 goals has landed in 3 of last 4 meetings.
• Atletico Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
• Once Caldas scored 0 goals in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
• Both teams tend to win more set pieces than average (over 9 corners likely).

Atletico Nacional Preview

Atletico Nacional have been a model of consistency in Colombian football, boasting a six-match unbeaten streak as they enter this critical quarterfinal tie. Their most recent match, a 2-2 draw with Deportivo Pasto, showcased both resilience and areas for tactical tightening. Down the stretch, Nacional have mixed controlled midfield possession and aggressive pressing, with Jorman Campuzano (2 goals last 5 matches) dictating the tempo and William Tesillo providing defensive assurance.

Atletico Nacional possible starting eleven

Once Caldas Preview

Once Caldas enter the quarterfinals on the back of a tough loss to Llaneros (0-2), exposing their continued offensive inconsistencies and leaving them with only three wins from their last eight contests. While capable of moments of attacking brilliance from Michael Barrios and Jefry Zapata, the team’s defensive frailties have led to lopsided scorelines, particularly against aggressive, high-pressing rivals. Their away record is an ongoing concern as they face the Copa’s in-form contender.

Once Caldas possible starting eleven

Our prediction: Who Wins?

As the TipsGG team of expert observers, our consensus points clearly towards an Atletico Nacional victory. The reasons are manifold: dominant head-to-head record, better form, tactical awareness under Diego Arias, and depth across the pitch. Our AI prediction engine gives Nacional a 60 percent chance of advancing, with a 25 percent probability of a draw, and just 15 percent for Once Caldas. Expect Nacional to dictate play early, force errors, and break through in the latter stages of the match.

How to watch Atletico Nacional vs Once Caldas

• When? October 23, 2025 — Kick-off at 02:00 CEST
• Where? Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
• Favorite: Atletico Nacional

Best football betting sites and Bonuses

More useful links for football fans

• Daily Football Predictions
• Football Teams Rankings
• Football Matches Today
• Current football tournaments
• Football betting guide by Tips.GG