Rafael Nogueira
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One of Colombian football’s most charged rivalries returns in the Copa Colombia 2026 Round of 16 at Estadio Atanasio Girardot. Atletico Nacional enter this knockout tie on the back of a 3-1 win over America de Cali, while Deportivo Cali arrive having drawn 1-1 with Bucaramanga.
These two sides met just weeks ago in the Primera A, where Nacional won 2-1, making this a direct rematch with a cup place at stake. Marlos Moreno has been exceptional for Nacional with four goals and two assists in his last five appearances, and Nicolás Benedetti leads Cali’s attack with three goals in the same span, making both men the focal points of their respective sides.
Hot stat: Atletico Nacional have scored 11 goals across their last five matches, averaging 2.2 per game, with Marlos Moreno accounting for four of those from just four appearances.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Copa Colombia 2026, Round of 16 |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin |
| 🗓️ Date: | 08.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 03:15 CEST |
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali Prediction
Nacional’s home record, their superior form across the last 30 days (67% win rate against Cali’s 25%), and the fact they already beat Cali 2-1 in the Primera A this season all point firmly toward a Nacional win. The hosts have won four of their last six matches and carry genuine attacking momentum. We predict Atletico Nacional to win and both teams to score, given Cali have shown they can find the net even in losing efforts, including that Primera A meeting.
Stylistically, Cali commit more fouls (63 to Nacional’s 56 across five matches) and accumulate yellow cards at a higher rate (15 to 12), suggesting a physical approach that could generate set-piece opportunities for Nacional. Nacional’s pass accuracy is lower in raw numbers but they create more direct danger, with 71 total shots to Cali’s 63. Cali’s 42 interceptions in five games reflects a disciplined defensive block, yet Nacional still broke them down recently. Corner volume favors Nacional (19 to 15), which adds value to markets around set-piece derived outcomes.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atletico Nacional to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Atletico Nacional have been one of the most consistent sides in Colombia this year, posting a 68% win rate across 37 matches. In their last five, they scored 11 goals and conceded sparingly, with wins over Alianza Petrolera (5-1) and America de Cali (3-1) bookending the run. The 2-2 draw with Once Caldas is their only blemish in recent weeks. Their most recent match, the 3-1 victory over America de Cali, saw them control proceedings from the front with Moreno, Sarmiento, and Alfredo Morelos all contributing. Nacional’s 4-2-3-1 setup under Lucas González Vélez gives them width and a platform for quick transitions.
Deportivo Cali’s last five matches have been inconsistent. They drew 1-1 with Bucaramanga in their most recent outing, a result that reflects a team capable of keeping games tight but struggling to close them out. Before that, they lost 1-2 to Nacional, drew 2-2 with Internacional de Bogota, beat Deportivo Pasto 2-0, and lost 0-1 to Independiente Medellin. Their year-long win rate of 47% is serviceable but trails Nacional significantly. Rafael Dudamel’s side also deploys a 4-2-3-1 and relies heavily on Nicolás Benedetti and Steven Rodríguez for creativity and goals. Pedro Gallese in goal (22 saves in five matches) is arguably their most important individual, and his form will be tested heavily here.
Most Recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Atletico Nacional | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 1 |
| Total shots | 71 | 63 |
| Free kicks | 56 | 66 |
| Corner kicks | 19 | 15 |
| Total fouls | 56 | 63 |
| Interceptions | 19 | 42 |
| Offsides | 5 | 18 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali stats page for more info.
The head-to-head record across the last five competitive meetings shows a remarkably even rivalry: Nacional and Cali have each won twice, with one draw. Notably, the away side has won three of those five fixtures, which adds a layer of unpredictability to this tie. Nacional won the most recent meeting 2-1 back in the Primera A, and bookmakers backed them heavily on that occasion too, suggesting the current odds reflect a continuation of that assessment rather than a correction.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Atletico Nacional the Favourite
- Moneyline Atletico Nacional 1.53 | Deportivo Cali 6.50
- Draw 3.55
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The 1.53 on Nacional reflects their status as clear favorites at home, consistent with the 60% bookmaker probability. Cali at 6.50 looks long given their recent 1-2 loss to these exact opponents, but their head-to-head record over five meetings does give them a puncher’s chance. The draw at 3.55 is fair given how tight this fixture historically runs. We would not back Cali to win outright at these prices, but the BTTS market represents good value given both sides have scored in four of the last five meetings between them.
Possible Starting Lineups
Atletico Nacional Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Franco Armani
- DF: Samuel Velasquez Uribe, William Tesillo, Andrés Román, Milton Casco
- MF: Juan Zapata, Edwin Cardona, Yeicar Perlaza
- FW: Marlos Moreno, Alfredo Morelos, Andrés Sarmiento
Nacional’s most likely shape is a 4-2-3-1, with Franco Armani behind a back four built around William Tesillo’s experience and Samuel Velasquez Uribe’s work rate down the right. Edwin Cardona operates as the creative hub in midfield, accumulating one goal and three yellow cards across four recent appearances, meaning he walks a disciplinary line. Marlos Moreno is the standout name in attack with four goals in five games and should be considered the most dangerous player on the pitch.
Deportivo Cali Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Pedro Gallese
- DF: Fabian Viafara, Jose Carlos Caldera, Keimer Sandoval, Edwin Velasco
- MF: Daniel Giraldo, Gustavo Cuéllar, Alexis Castillo Manyoma
- FW: Nicolás Benedetti, Steven Rodríguez, Eduard Bello
Cali set up in a 4-2-3-1 with Pedro Gallese as a commanding last line, his 22 saves across five matches the clearest indicator of how much pressure this defense absorbs. Jose Carlos Caldera (12 interceptions, three yellow cards) anchors the defensive line alongside Keimer Sandoval. Nicolás Benedetti, with three goals from five games, is Cali’s primary creative and scoring outlet. Steven Rodríguez offers directness from wide areas with 15 total shots in five appearances. Cali’s midfield, led by Daniel Giraldo’s 249 passes, tends to control tempo, though that approach was not enough to stop Nacional in their last meeting.
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Deportivo Cali. Source: Official Instagram. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Atletico Nacional are the better side on current form, home advantage, and recent head-to-head results. They have scored in every one of their last five matches, won four of six in the past 30 days, and already defeated this exact Cali side 2-1 weeks ago. Cali’s defensive numbers show a team that works hard to stay compact, with 42 interceptions and 63 fouls across five matches, but Nacional’s attack has the quality to break that down, particularly through Moreno and Morelos.
We predict Atletico Nacional to win, with both teams scoring. The fixture history and Cali’s ability to threaten on the counter, as evidenced by Benedetti’s form, make a clean sheet for Nacional unlikely. An Atletico Nacional win with goals at both ends is the most supported outcome across all available data.
