Sofia Quijada
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Atletico Nacional welcome Deportes Tolima to the Atanasio Girardot sitting fourth in the Clausura table, just five points off the top spot. Tolima arrive in eighth, a side that has won only once in its last six outings. The history between these clubs runs deep through recent Apertura semifinals, and Nacional have gotten the better of Tolima in three of the last four meetings. Lucas González’s men scored three times in their last home outing against Junior Barranquilla, a result that keeps their momentum rolling into this one.
Ian Carlo Poveda has been directly involved in a goal or assist in three of Nacional’s last four matches and carries the biggest threat on the counter. James Rodríguez continues to dictate tempo from midfield, racking up two assists across his last four appearances. For Tolima, Jorge Hurtado stands out as their lone source of goals in this stretch, netting their only goal in the sample across five games.
Hot stat: Atletico Nacional have scored seven goals in their last five matches, more than double Tolima’s tally of three in the same span, a gap that lines up neatly with the gulf in current form.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026 Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin |
| 🗓️ Date: | 09.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 01:05 CEST |
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima prediction
We predict Atletico Nacional to win this one, and comfortably. Their home form reads five wins, one loss and two draws across the last eight games, a 63% winrate that dwarfs Tolima’s 17% away from home over the same stretch. Tolima have drawn three of their last six matches and scored just three goals in that period, a side struggling to create rather than just finish. Backing Nacional on the moneyline alongside Over 2.5 goals captures both the quality gap and Nacional’s attacking output.
Tolima’s defensive approach leans on discipline rather than chaos, picking up 15 yellow cards across their last five matches against Nacional’s 11, with higher fouls per game as well, 61 to 51. Their pass accuracy sits higher too at roughly 86% compared to Nacional’s 87%, numbers that are close but Nacional convert their possession into shots more efficiently, firing fewer attempts yet scoring more. Expect Tolima to sit deeper and try to frustrate, which could open space for Nacional’s wide forwards on the counter-break.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atletico Nacional to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Atletico Nacional’s last outing was a 3-1 home win over Junior Barranquilla, continuing a run that includes just one loss in their last eight games. Before that, they drew 1-1 with Chapecoense and 1-1 with Millonarios, results that show a side capable of grinding results even when not fully clicking. In our preview of Atletico Nacional vs Junior Barranquilla we called a home win with both teams scoring, and the 3-1 result delivered exactly that.
Deportes Tolima’s last match ended 0-0 against Boyaca Chico, their third draw in six games. Before that came a 2-2 share with Fortaleza and a 1-1 draw with America de Cali, a pattern of games that keep slipping away from them late or never getting started in the first place. Luis Fernando Suárez’s side has scored in only two of their last five matches, a concerning trend heading into a tougher away assignment.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Atletico Nacional | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 8 meetings) | 11 | 7 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima stats page for more info.
Deportes Tolima. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico Nacional the favourite
- Moneyline Atletico Nacional 1.60 | Deportes Tolima 4.80
- Draw 3.65
The market leans heavily on Nacional, with bookmakers putting them at roughly 56% to win versus just 19% for Tolima. That split matches the form gap between the two sides this season and the home advantage at the Atanasio Girardot, where Nacional have been difficult to beat. The draw price around 3.65 looks fair given Tolima’s recent habit of settling for stalemates, but we expect Nacional’s firepower to break that pattern here.
Possible Starting Lineups
Atletico Nacional possible starting eleven
- GK: Franco Armani
- DF: Milton Casco, Neider Parra, William Tesillo, Andrés Reyes
- MF: Yeicar Perlaza, Kevin Parra
- FW: James Rodríguez, Elías Lautaro Cabrera, Ian Carlo Poveda, Andrés Sarmiento
Nacional should stick with their trusted 4-2-3-1, the shape they have used in each of their last five matches. Poveda’s pace out wide and Rodríguez’s passing range give the side variety in the final third, while the double pivot of Perlaza and Parra protects the back four against Tolima’s counters.
Deportes Tolima possible starting eleven
- GK: Alvino Volpi Neto
- DF: Jan Angulo, Anderson Angulo, Shean Barbosa, Junior Hernandez
- MF: Sebastian Guzman, Homer Martinez
- FW: Jorge Hurtado, Luis Sanchez, Edwar López, Ever Valencia
Suárez also favours a 4-2-3-1, built around a settled back line that has started together in all five recent games. Hurtado remains the attacking focal point after providing their only goal in this sample, and Tolima will need Guzman and Martinez to control midfield tempo if they want to avoid being overrun.
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Atletico Nacional. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
We expect Atletico Nacional to take control early and push for a comfortable win here. Their attacking numbers, seven goals in five games against Tolima’s three, tell most of the story, and the home crowd at the Atanasio Girardot adds another layer of pressure on a Tolima side that has drawn three of its last six fixtures. To be honest, Tolima’s inability to find the net consistently makes BTTS a slight risk, but their recent matches against mid-table sides have still produced goals at both ends often enough. Our preferred angle stays Atletico Nacional to win combined with Over 2.5 total goals, backed by Nacional’s superior home form and Tolima’s shaky away record this Clausura.
