Sofia Quijada
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Atletico Nacional welcome Aguilas Doradas to the Atanasio Girardot carrying a five-match winning streak, yet they still sit 6th in the Clausura table simply because they have played fewer games than most rivals. Aguilas Doradas arrive in a different mood entirely, unbeaten in four straight but stuck on draws, a run that keeps them respectable without lifting them out of mid-table. The interesting wrinkle here: Aguilas have taken points off Nacional in three of the last four head-to-head meetings whenever the bookmakers didn’t heavily favor the home side, so the visitors don’t tend to fold just because the odds say they should.
Watch Marlos Moreno for Nacional. He has scored three goals across his last three appearances and remains the sharpest attacking outlet from the left channel. For Aguilas, Ricardo Marquez is the man to track, with three goals in four games despite the team’s habit of settling for draws instead of pushing on for wins.
Hot stat: despite Nacional’s dominant recent form, Aguilas Doradas have won 39 corners across their last five matches compared to just 16 for Nacional, a sign the visitors can still compete for territory even when the scoreboard doesn’t go their way.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Primera A 2026, Clausura |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin |
| 🗓️ Date: | 13.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 23:05 CEST |
Atletico Nacional vs Aguilas Doradas prediction
We predict a home win paired with goals at both ends. Nacional have scored at least two goals in every one of their last five outings, and Aguilas have conceded in nine of their last ten. Aguilas have also found the net in four straight matches themselves, so a clean sheet for the hosts looks unlikely even with the gulf in form. Perhaps the safest angle for value is Nacional to win with both teams scoring, since the market price on that combination beats a straight moneyline bet without sacrificing much safety.
Style-wise, Nacional commit slightly fewer fouls than Aguilas over the last five games (41 to 38 is close, actually a touch more for Nacional) but pick up fewer cards, 8 against 9, which points to a side that presses with control rather than recklessness. Aguilas circulate possession more patiently, evidenced by their bigger passing totals, yet their shot count barely edges Nacional’s despite sitting three places lower in the table. That patient build-up, combined with their corner advantage, suggests Aguilas will get spells of pressure and set-piece chances even while losing the game overall.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atletico Nacional to win & Both Teams To Score |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Atletico Nacional have won all five of their last matches, scoring 15 goals in the process: 3-0 over Deportivo Cali, 3-1 against America de Cali, a 5-1 rout of Alianza Petrolera, another 2-1 win over Deportivo Cali and a 2-1 victory against Fortaleza. The most recent result, that 3-0 shutout of Deportivo Cali, showed a side comfortable controlling matches from the front, with Sarmiento and Moreno both directly involved in the scoring. Coach Lucas González Vélez has settled on a front line rotation between Morelos, Sarmiento and Moreno that keeps opposing defenses guessing.
Aguilas Doradas have not lost in their last five, but four of those five ended level: 2-2 with Internacional de Bogota, 2-2 with Boyaca Chico, 1-1 with Millonarios, 1-1 with Llaneros, sandwiched around a 2-1 win over Deportivo Pasto. The draw with Internacional de Bogota, their most recent match, followed a familiar pattern: Aguilas scored twice but conceded twice, unable to hold a lead. That leaky habit at the back is the clearest reason to expect goals for both sides again on Sunday.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Atletico Nacional | Aguilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (last 4 meetings) | 6 | 5 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Atletico Nacional vs Aguilas Doradas stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico Nacional the favourite
- Moneyline Atletico Nacional 1.36 | Aguilas Doradas 9.00
- Draw 3.85
The market leans heavily on Nacional’s five-game winning run and their strong home record against Aguilas historically. A draw price above 3.80 looks generous given Aguilas have drawn four straight, though that same draw habit is exactly why we’re not backing Nacional to keep a clean sheet. To be honest, the away price near 9.00 is fair given the gap in current form, but it’s not one we’d recommend chasing outright.
Possible Starting Lineups
Atletico Nacional possible starting eleven
- GK: Franco Armani
- DF: William Tesillo, Samuel Velasquez Uribe, Andrés Román, Milton Casco
- MF: Edwin Cardona, Juan Zapata, Marlos Moreno, Ian Carlo Poveda
- FW: Alfredo Morelos, Andrés Sarmiento
Armani anchors the back line after starting all three of his recent appearances, while Tesillo and Velasquez Uribe look the trusted centre-back pairing. Cardona and Zapata screen in front of the defense, freeing Moreno and Poveda to combine with Morelos up top in what should play out as a 4-2-3-1 shape. Moreno is the player worth watching given his three goals in three games.
Aguilas Doradas possible starting eleven
- GK: Jorge Soto
- DF: John Ontaneda, Andres Mosquera, Nicolás Lara Vásquez, Sebastián Rodríguez
- MF: Frank Lozano, Javier Alexander Mena, Juan Esteban Avalo Trejos
- FW: Andres Ricaurte, Ricardo Marquez, Anthony Vásquez
Soto has played every minute of the sample and remains first choice between the posts. Ontaneda and Mosquera carry heavy passing loads at the back, suggesting Aguilas will look to build from deep in a 4-3-3. Ricaurte’s passing volume up front points to a deep-lying forward role, while Marquez, with three goals in four matches, is the clearest attacking threat.
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Aguilas Doradas. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
Nacional’s five straight wins and 15 goals scored in that run make them the clear side to back, but Aguilas have found the net in every one of their last five matches too, including three straight draws where they conceded just as often as they scored. We predict Atletico Nacional to win this one at the Girardot, most likely by a two-goal margin, with Aguilas grabbing a consolation goal along the way. Backing the hosts alongside both teams to score offers the best balance of value and safety, and our team leans toward over 2.5 total goals given how open both defenses have looked recently.
