Sofia Quijada
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Atletico Madrid welcome Osasuna to the Metropolitano sitting fifth in La Liga, four points behind leaders Barcelona but level on points with a chasing pack. Osasuna arrive in 11th, having shipped seven goals across their last two away trips, a defensive slump that hands Simeone’s side a clear opening. The interesting angle here: Ante Budimir has personally scored 80% of Osasuna’s goals in their last five matches, meaning stopping one man could effectively neutralize the entire away attack.
Giuliano Simeone has been quietly productive for the hosts, contributing two goals and an assist across his last five appearances from a wide attacking role, and his direct running against a tiring Osasuna back line could prove decisive. On the other side, Ante Budimir remains the one genuine threat, netting four times in five games including a 16-shot volume that shows he is Osasuna’s entire attacking outlet.
Hot stat: Osasuna have conceded seven goals in their last two matches alone (2-5 vs Alavés, 0-2 vs Espanyol), while Atletico have scored nine goals in their last five, a gulf that strongly favours the home side heading into this fixture.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2026/2027, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid |
| 🗓️ Date: | 16.09.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 19:00 CEST |
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna prediction
We predict a comfortable Atletico Madrid win, perhaps by a 3-1 or 2-0 margin. The bookmakers’ 68% implied probability for the hosts looks fair given the gap in recent attacking output, nine goals for Atletico against five for Osasuna over the last five games apiece. Backing Atletico outright at odds around 1.38 offers limited value, so our team leans toward combining the home win with BTTS or exploring the Asian handicap line for sharper returns.
Atletico commit fewer fouls (53) and pick up fewer yellow cards (8) than Osasuna (65 fouls, 12 cards) across their last five matches, pointing to a more disciplined, possession-based approach. Pass accuracy sits near 86% for the hosts against roughly 83% for Osasuna, a gap that should let Atletico dictate tempo. Osasuna’s higher foul count could hand Alejandro Grimaldo and Morten Hjulmand extra set-piece chances, both regular free-kick takers for Atletico.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atletico Madrid -1.5 Asian Handicap |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Atletico Madrid’s form has been streaky, a 2-2 draw with Villarreal followed by a bounce-back 3-1 win over Sevilla, then two straight losses, 0-3 to Athletic Bilbao and 1-2 to Liverpool. The response was emphatic though, a 3-0 away win over Real Sociedad in their most recent outing. In our preview of Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid we called a narrow away win with goals at both ends, and the 3-0 result delivered the win but not the BTTS angle, since Sociedad failed to register. That victory still shows Atletico can produce ruthless attacking displays when their front line clicks, exactly the kind of form Osasuna will want to avoid facing.
Osasuna’s recent run tells a worrying story defensively. A 0-0 draw with Levante and a 2-1 win over Celta Vigo gave some stability, followed by a battling 1-0 win at Getafe. The last two matches undo that progress completely, a 2-5 collapse against Alavés and a 0-2 defeat to Espanyol in their most recent fixture. Conceding seven goals in two games against mid-table opposition raises real doubts about their ability to contain Atletico’s front three, particularly with Budimir shouldering almost all the attacking burden alone.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Atletico Madrid | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 4 | 3 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico Madrid the favourite
- Moneyline Atletico Madrid 1.37 | Osasuna 8.00
- Draw 4.75
The moneyline pricing around 1.37 for the hosts reflects the gap in current form and recent goal output, Atletico have simply been more clinical and more solid defensively over the past five games. Draw odds near 4.75 look generous given how rarely Osasuna have kept clean sheets recently, and our team sees little value there. The eight-plus price on an Osasuna win seems fair rather than a value trap, this away side has not looked capable of stopping a functioning Atletico attack in their last outing.
Possible Starting Lineups
Atletico Madrid possible starting eleven
- GK: Jan Oblak
- DF: Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero, Dávid Hancko, Alejandro Grimaldo
- MF: Morten Hjulmand, Pablo Barrios
- MF: Lee Kang-In, Alejandro Baena Rodríguez, Giuliano Simeone Baldini
- FW: Ademola Lookman
Simeone’s likely 4-2-3-1 leans on Hjulmand and Barrios to shield the back four while Grimaldo and Pubill push forward from full-back. Giuliano Simeone and Baena carry most of the creative load behind Lookman, and both have combined for four goals and two assists across the last five matches, making them the players most likely to punish a shaky Osasuna backline.
Osasuna possible starting eleven
- GK: Sergio Herrera
- DF: Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena, Íñigo Arguibide, Abel Bretones
- MF: Iker Muñoz Cameros, Jon Moncayola, Lucas Torró, Moi Gómez
- FW: Ante Budimir, Raúl García
Ramis sticks with a compact 4-4-2, Catena and Arguibide anchoring the centre after playing every minute of the last five matches. Budimir leads the line as the sole reliable scoring threat, with Raúl García offering a physical outlet alongside him, though Osasuna will need a much sharper defensive shape than shown against Alavés and Espanyol to keep this scoreline respectable.
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Osasuna. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Atletico Madrid to win this one, likely 3-1, with the home side’s attacking numbers and Osasuna’s leaky defense pointing firmly toward a comfortable night at the Metropolitano. Budimir will probably find the net given his share of Osasuna’s output, but the gap in overall quality, discipline and recent goal difference should be too much for the visitors to overcome. Perhaps Osasuna manage to stay competitive for a half, but the value, to be honest, sits with Atletico covering the handicap and both teams finding the scoresheet.
Read also: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Predicted Lineups, Team News & Expected XIs
Read also: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Head-to-Head: Record, Stats & Form (Updated September 2026)
