Atletico Madrid vs Alavés Predictions: Odds and betting tips for La Liga - 18.01.2026

On Saturday, January 18, 2026, the iconic Cívitas Metropolitano in Madrid sets the stage for a compelling La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Alavés. Kick-off is at 17:15 CEST, with both sides seeking to solidify their respective standings in the Spanish top flight’s 2025/26 regular season. While Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid aim to keep pace with Barcelona and Real Madrid, Eduardo Coudet’s Alavés fight to steer clear of the relegation battle.

Among the players expected to define this encounter, Antoine Griezmann’s creative mastery for Atletico Madrid and Toni Martínez’s finishing prowess for Alavés stand out. Griezmann’s vision and movement remain pivotal, while Martínez brings both goalscoring and pressing intensity in attack.

A particularly striking stat coming into this fixture: Atletico have conceded just three goals in their last five home matches, highlighting their defensive resilience on home turf a foundation for their push up the La Liga table.

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Atletico Madrid vs Alavés predictions

Me best bet: Atletico Madrid to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Given Atletico’s imperious home form (three wins and one draw in their last five) combined with Alavés’ hesitancy in attack (just four goals in the same span), backing a home win in a controlled, low-scoring contest offers optimal value. Simeone’s side exerts tactical discipline, pressing collectively but rarely pushing numbers recklessly forward, especially when favoured at home. Historically, matches between these two feature tight margins three of their last four meetings saw two or fewer goals.

Discipline, possession, and pressing efficiency define how this match may unfold. Atletico record fewer fouls (45 to Alavés’ 51 in their last five) and remarkably fewer yellow cards (2 to 8), underscoring their controlled aggression. Their ball retention is also superior 2,092 passes at 87% accuracy reflect a side comfortable dictating tempo, in contrast to Alavés’ more direct, combative approach (1,814 passes, 81% accuracy, and 16 corners versus Atletico’s 25). Coudet’s Alavés will likely play reactively, focusing on transitions and set pieces a valid ploy but risky against Atletico’s organized defensive block.

• ⚽Total Goals: Under 3.5
• 💥Both Teams To Score: No
• 🎯Total Corners: Over 8.5

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Atletico Madrid vs Alavés Most recent H2Hs

In their past three Liga encounters, draws have been frequent (1-1, 0-0), with Atletico’s narrow 2-1 home win in 2024 reflecting their ability to break stubborn defensive setups. Alavés often frustrate their hosts with compact blocks and aggressive midfield duels, but the Madrid side’s attacking versatility typically prevails when late-game space appears.

🚨Read our full Atletico Madrid vs Alavés stats for more analysis.

Key Stats

• Atletico Madrid have won 60% of their last five matches, compared to Alavés’ 40%.
• Alavés have received quadruple the yellow cards of Atletico in their last five (8 to 2), reflecting a risk of further suspensions or discipline-related disruptions.
• Antoine Griezmann has contributed directly to three goals (2 goals, 1 assist) in his last four matches for Atletico.
• Toni Martínez has scored twice in his last four, responsible for half of Alavés’ recent goals.
• Atletico average more corner kicks per match (5) than Alavés (3.2), signaling set-piece danger.

Atletico Madrid vs Alavés score prediction: 2-0

Given the strength of Atletico Madrid at home, their cohesive defense led by Jan Oblak and José María Giménez, and the creative spark from Griezmann and Sørloth up front, a 2-0 scoreline is the most plausible outcome. Alavés will likely struggle to breach Atletico’s structured rearguard, especially with Coudet apt to set up conservatively and Toni Martínez needing service under heavy pressure.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Atletico Madrid the favourite

These odds make Atletico clear favourites; bookmakers’ consensus gives them a dominant 71% win probability. Alavés are sizable underdogs, with value mainly on defensive props and low-scoring scenarios. With recent form, deeper squad quality, and home advantage, there’s little value in betting against Simeone’s side given current trends and stats.

Atletico Madrid vs Alavés Over/Under Analysis

• Four of Atletico Madrid’s last five matches ended with under 3.5 goals.
• Alavés have failed to score in two of their last five matches.
• Combined, the two teams have produced more than eight corners per game across recent outings, bolstering the overs on set-piece props.
• Disciplinary volatility is higher with Alavés, raising the likelihood of match interruptions and defensive play.

Atletico Madrid Preview

Atletico’s recent performances display a side regaining sharpness three wins, one draw, and only one defeat in their last five matches. Their most recent outing, a solid 1-0 victory over Deportivo La Coruña, showcased their classic efficiency: a resolute defensive performance with Jan Oblak’s calm leadership at the back and Griezmann’s ingenuity responsible for the decisive goal.

Atletico Madrid possible starting eleven

Alavés Preview

Alavés come into this tie with confidence after defeating Rayo Vallecano 2-0 last time out a much-needed result following a testing run across La Liga. Toni Martínez was again the decisive figure, finding the net and providing a consistent outlet. Despite pockets of resistance and midfield tenacity from Carlos Vicente and Antonio Blanco, defensive lapses under intense pressure persist.

Alavés possible starting eleven

The Verdict

As experts at TipsGG, our principal pick is a disciplined Atletico Madrid win. The evidence lies not just in their dominant home record but in low opponent xG, well-drilled pressing, and Griezmann’s continued creative impact. We rate Atletico’s probability of victory at 72%, derived from AI modeling based on home strength, squad depth, and recent trends. For unmatched La Liga coverage and sharp betting edges, follow our insights throughout the season.

How to watch Atletico Madrid vs Alavés

• When? January 18, 2026, Kick-off at 17:15 CEST
• Where? Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
• How to watch: Via La Liga’s official streaming partners and select global sports broadcasters.
• Favorite: Atletico Madrid

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