Rafael Nogueira
On May 30, Athletico PR host Mirassol at Arena da Baixada in a contest with significant weight for both clubs. Athletico PR seek to stay in the top four, while Mirassol, currently near the relegation zone, look for crucial points away from home. Despite a higher world club ranking, Mirassol have struggled for consistency. One to watch for Athletico PR is forward Kevin Viveros, a direct threat with two goals in his last four, while Mirassol’s Willian Estefani Machado has shown surprising attacking impact from defense.
The “hot stat”: Mirassol have scored six goals in their last five matches, twice as many as Athletico PR in that stretch—remarkable given their lower league standing.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 2026 – Regular Season, Brazil |
| 🏟 Venue: | Arena da Baixada, Curitiba |
| 🗓️ Date: | 30.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Athletico PR vs Mirassol prediction
We predict Athletico PR to win. Bookmakers set the home win probability at 52%, and their home form under Odair Hellmann remains steady, with a recent unbeaten run at the Arena da Baixada. Mirassol have a higher win rate in the last month (67%), yet most of those wins came outside the league. Athletico PR show a measured approach: 56 fouls and 12 yellow cards in their last five indicate aggression but also discipline, while Mirassol are slightly less combative (53 fouls, 7 yellows). Athletico PR’s midfielders, particularly Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva and Juan Aguirre, help control possession (1,531 accurate passes in five matches). Mirassol’s tendency to play through the flanks leads to fewer shots but more efficient goal conversion recently. Expect Athletico PR’s tactical shape to frustrate Mirassol’s creative line.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Under 2.5 goals |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Athletico PR come off a narrow 2-1 home win over Remo. The team managed to break down Remo’s deep block with patient build-up, leveraging both flanks and set pieces. Stiven Mendoza found the net, highlighting his impact as a lone forward. In their recent six matches, Athletico PR earned three wins and two draws, the only loss coming against Vasco—indicating solid form but still room for defensive tightening.
Mirassol recently edged Lanus 1-0, displaying a compact defensive unit and swift counter-attacks. Willian Estefani Machado contributed again, showing versatility. While Mirassol lost twice in their last five, their three wins showcased direct play and opportunistic finishing. Their main challenge remains defensive gaps, with goals conceded in all but one of those matches.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Athletico PR | Mirassol |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3 | 6 |
| Total shots | 61 | 46 |
| Free kicks | 0 | 3 |
| Corner kicks | 30 | 16 |
| Total fouls | 56 | 53 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 82% | 78.8% |
| Interceptions | 36 | 34 |
| Offsides | 6 | 8 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Athletico PR vs Mirassol stats page for more info.
Mirassol. Source: Official Website
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletico PR the favourite
- Moneyline Athletico PR 1.80–1.88 | Mirassol 4.20–4.69
- Draw 3.30–3.60
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.65
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.75
Bookmakers clearly favor Athletico PR, especially at home, with odds reflecting Mirassol’s inconsistent league run. The price for Under 2.5 goals is short, showing the market expects a cagey match. Both teams to score is nearly even, acknowledging Mirassol’s recent scoring form. We predict Athletico PR to edge it, but Mirassol’s improved finishing means both teams can get on the scoresheet.
Possible Starting Lineups
Athletico PR possible starting eleven
- GK: Aderbar Melo dos Santos Neto
- DF: Juan Aguirre, Arthur Dias, Gaston Americo Benavidez, Lucas Esquivel
- MF: Antonio Feliphe Costa Silva, João Victor Machado Cruz, Bruno Zapelli, Claudinho
- FW: Kevin Viveros, Stiven Mendoza
Odair Hellmann likely sticks with a 4-2-3-1. Neto is the established starter in goal. Aguirre and Dias anchor the back line, Esquivel and Benavidez provide width. Costa Silva and Machado Cruz shield the defense and distribute. Up front, Viveros and Mendoza offer pace and clinical finishing. Claudinho’s creative input will be key, while Zapelli adds control in midfield.
Mirassol possible starting eleven
- GK: Alex Muralha
- DF: Willian Estefani Machado, João Victor Carroll Santana, Daniel Borges
- MF: Chico Kim, José Aldo, Reinaldo, Igor Cariús
- FW: Alesson dos Santos Batista, Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo, Carlos Eduardo
Coach Rafael Guanaes will likely opt for a 3-4-2-1. Muralha remains first choice in goal. Machado, Santana, and Borges form a back three. The midfield is bolstered by Kim and José Aldo for control, with Reinaldo and Cariús offering width. The attack is led by Alesson and Shaylon, while Carlos Eduardo supports as a creative forward. Machado’s ability to influence both ends makes him vital.
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Athletico PR. Source: Official Website
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict a narrow home victory for Athletico PR, with a likely final scoreline of 2-1. Their structured defensive approach and controlled midfield should neutralize Mirassol’s direct attacks. Mirassol will pose a threat on the break and can find the net, but Athletico PR’s organization at home gives them the edge. Under 2.5 goals is favored, though both teams are capable of scoring.
