Rafael Nogueira
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Athletic Club host Novorizontino at Estadio Joaquim Portugal in a mid-table Série B clash that carries real weight for both sides. Athletic sit 9th on 26 points, while Novorizontino are just two points behind in 12th, making this a direct six-pointer in the promotion race. Notably, Novorizontino have beaten Athletic in each of the last three meetings, including a 2-1 win earlier this season, so the hosts face a side that knows exactly how to hurt them.
Two players stand out heading into this fixture. Robson has been Novorizontino’s most dangerous attacker over the last five matches, scoring twice and adding an assist while generating 10 shots, the highest of any outfield player in this dataset. For Athletic Club, Kauan Rodrigues da Silva offers a consistent midfield presence with a goal and 101 passes completed, giving the hosts their clearest route to controlling the tempo. Novorizontino’s hot stat: they racked up 38 corner kicks across their last five matches, more than three times Athletic’s 12, which signals consistent attacking pressure from wide areas and should be factored into any corners market.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Sao Joao del-Rei |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 00:30 CEST |
Athletic Club vs Novorizontino Prediction
Bookmakers price Novorizontino as slim favourites at around 2.55-2.60, and the H2H record backs that assessment. Novorizontino have won all three previous meetings, including two clean sheets, and their year-long win rate of 44% against Athletic’s 29% reinforces the gap in quality. Athletic’s recent form in the last 30 days (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) is solid on the surface, but their only defeat in that run came against CRB, a side ranked well above them, and their overall season numbers remain poor.
Athletic Club have averaged just 1.2 goals per game over their last five matches and committed 56 fouls with 11 yellow cards, suggesting a combative but limited side. Novorizontino are slightly cleaner with 7 yellows across the same period, but their 58 fouls show they press hard. Their 58 total shots versus Athletic’s 47 and their dominant 39 interceptions versus Athletic’s 27 indicate a team that wins more physical and spatial battles. Athletic’s pass accuracy and volume are marginally lower, which in a tight game tends to cost possession at key moments. We predict Novorizontino to win, and the away side scoring is a near-certainty given their attacking output.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Novorizontino to win to nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Athletic Club arrive with three wins from five in the last 30 days, but the recent run of results tells a mixed story. They beat America MG 3-1 and Criciuma 2-0, both strong results, but their 0-2 defeat to CRB exposed defensive fragility against top-half opposition. The draw with Ponte Preta and the narrow 2-1 win over Sao Bernardo suggest they can grind out results against weaker sides. Over the last five games they scored 6 goals and conceded, with a set piece threat that has not yet translated into free kick goals. Coach Alex’s 3-4-3 setup gives them width but leaves them exposed on the counter when the wing-backs push forward.
Novorizontino’s recent five-game stretch is defined by two contrasting performances. A 3-0 demolition of America MG was their best result, with Robson and Carlos Henrique both among the goals. The 0-0 draw with CRB and the 0-1 loss to Juventude show they can be contained, but Londrina PR were beaten 4-1, and their only other defeat came at the hands of table-topping Criciuma. Enderson Moreira’s 3-4-3 mirrors Athletic’s shape, which typically means midfield battles determine the result. Their 39 interceptions across five games point to a defensive structure that actively hunts the ball rather than sitting deep.
🚨Check out our dedicated Athletic Club vs Novorizontino stats page for more info.
The head-to-head record across three meetings this season and last tells a clear story: Novorizontino have scored 5 goals against Athletic’s 1, winning all three fixtures. The bookmakers expected Athletic to win two of those three games, yet Novorizontino outperformed expectations each time. That pattern of defying odds is worth noting when assessing the value in this market.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Novorizontino the Favourite
- Moneyline Athletic Club 2.90 | Novorizontino 2.55
- Draw 2.97
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds of around 2.90 for Athletic represent poor value given their season win rate and the H2H deficit. Novorizontino at 2.55-2.60 is the sharper play, and Pinnacle’s 3.00 on Athletic is the market’s clearest signal that even the sharpest books see this as a coin-flip leaning away. The draw at 2.97 is tempting given both teams’ tendency to share points in tight matches, but Novorizontino’s superior attacking output and clean sheet potential make the away win the better selection.
Possible Starting Lineups
Athletic Club Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Luan Polli
- DF: Douglas da Silva Santos, Lucas Belezi, Jhonatan, Enzo Henrique dos Santos
- MF: Maswel Ananias Silva, Kauan Rodrigues da Silva, Yago Santos de Andrade, Diogo Batista de Souza
- FW: Dixon Vera, Wilinton Aponza Carabali, Carlos Moisés de Lima
Athletic Club line up in a 3-4-3 with Luan Polli as first-choice goalkeeper after four appearances. The back three of Belezi, Jhonatan, and Enzo Henrique dos Santos has been the most consistent defensive unit. Kauan Rodrigues da Silva is the midfielder to watch, combining a goal return with 101 completed passes. Carlos Moisés de Lima leads the forward line with a goal contribution and the highest foul count among the attackers, which could earn him an early booking against Novorizontino’s physical midfield.
Novorizontino Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Jordi
- DF: Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas, Eduardo Brock, Alexis Alvarino, Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho
- MF: Luís Oyama, Matheus Henrique Bianqui, Leonardo Naldi de Matos, Juninho
- FW: Robson, Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito, Nicolas Morês da Cruz
Novorizontino set up in a 3-4-3 as well, with Jordi in goal after four straight starts. Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas is a threat from deep with a goal and six interceptions, underlining his two-way contribution. Luís Oyama anchors the midfield with 157 passes and 5 interceptions, providing the platform for Robson and Carlos Henrique to cause damage in the final third. Robson’s 10 shots and 2 goals in five games make him the player Athletic’s defence must account for most.
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Novorizontino. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Novorizontino arrive at Estadio Joaquim Portugal with a perfect H2H record against Athletic this season, superior attacking output, more interceptions, and a higher season-long win rate. Athletic’s 3-4-3 can be dangerous on the break, but against a side that has kept two clean sheets in the last three H2H meetings, their 6 goals across the last five games is not enough of a platform to back them. We predict Novorizontino to win, and with Athletic’s limited corner threat (12 corners in five games) versus Novorizontino’s 38, the over on corners is a strong supporting bet. The Novorizontino win to nil at around 3.50-4.00 with most books represents the best value in this fixture, combining the likely outcome with the defensive solidity Enderson Moreira’s side has shown in this exact matchup.
