Athletic Club vs Novorizontino Prediction: 18.05.2025 Campeonato Brasileiro Série B Preview

The Campeonato Brasileiro Série B brings together two sides hungry for momentum as Athletic Club meets Novorizontino at Brann Stadion on May 18, 2025. While neither team has dazzled so far, both enter the fixture with their sights firmly set on climbing the table and redressing early inconsistencies. Athletic Club, still searching for rhythm under Roger Silva, will be looking to leverage a home advantage against a Novorizontino side coached by Umberto Louzer, who has already earned a reputation for defensive organisation and clever counter-attacks. Intriguingly, both sides share a preference for the 4-2-3-1 formation—a tactical symmetry anticipating a tightly contested battle in midfield. The margins, as the betting odds and recent draws suggest, are exceptionally fine.

Key players to watch include Athletic Club’s dynamic forward Neto Costa, who has scored three times in five recent outings, and Novorizontino’s versatile striker Pablo Dyego, a player whose work rate, ability to press, and scoring presence have added bite to the attack. Both stars offer an edge that could turn a balanced matchup, underlining the sense that individual inspiration may tip the scales.

Statistically, it is Novorizontino’s impressive tally of 85 total shots across their last five matches—well above Athletic’s 53—that stands out as the “hot stat” for this clash. This attacking intent translates directly into an increased threat, suggesting the visitors are the more proactive side going forward.

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Athletic Club vs Novorizontino prediction

Given recent form and statistical trends, backing Novorizontino for at least a Draw No Bet outcome provides the strongest value. Despite their similar win rates over the past month (Athletic 33 percent, Novorizontino 29 percent), the visitors’ higher shot count and corner wins (37 to Athletic’s 25 in the last five) hint at a more aggressive, proactive game model. Novorizontino also commit slightly more fouls (66 to 62), but pick up fewer yellows, suggesting tactical discipline.

Both teams’ preference for the 4-2-3-1 formation further cements the prospect of a midfield-heavy tactical duel. Athletic Club’s ball progression relies heavily on physical forward play, with Neto Costa providing direct running and goal presence; however, Athletic’s higher yellow card (13 to 10) and red card tally (3 in the last 5 matches) hint at defensive volatility—potentially problematic against a patient Novorizontino build-up.

Athletic also average marginally lower pass accuracy (1265 passes/1620 attempts vs Novorizontino’s 1993/2367) and are less productive from set plays, scoring zero free kick goals recently compared to Novorizontino’s one. Such nuances suggest that Novorizontino’s slightly superior efficiency can be the difference-maker in a low-scoring, tightly contested affair.

Team Analysis

Athletic Club’s recent games – The side snapped a three-game losing streak with an emphatic 3-0 win over Botafogo SP. Neto Costa starred with a goal, supported by disciplined midfield pressing and a resilient back line. However, in the four games prior, they alternated between disappointment and flashes of quality—succumbing to defeats against Vila Nova (0-1), Criciuma (0-4), and Chapecoense (0-1) before edging Volta Redonda (2-1). Their ability to bounce back after heavy losses speaks to resilience, but inconsistency and a high red-card count (three in five matches) raise questions over in-game discipline.

Novorizontino’s recent games – Umberto Louzer’s squad found steel in adversity, picking up draws against Ferroviaria (2-2) and Criciuma (1-1), while stumbling against a quality Atletico Goianiense (0-1) and Corinthians Paulista (0-1). Their highlight was the 2-1 win over Athletico PR, propelled by Pablo Dyego’s tenacity up front and Matheus Frizzo’s support in midfield. Novorizontino’s ability to draw matches—three in the last five—reinforces their reputation as difficult to beat, even when not at their sharpest. Their collective discipline is reflected in just ten yellow cards over five games and zero reds.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Athletic Club vs Novorizontino stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Novorizontino the favourite

• Moneyline Athletic Club 3.10 | Novorizontino 2.45
• Draw 2.85
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.20 | Under 2.5 1.55
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.10 | No 1.75

Odds reflect a slight market preference for Novorizontino, owing to their improved passing, higher shot volume, and steadier recent form. A low over/under 2.5 price points to bettors expecting a controlled, tight contest with neither team likely to dominate. The “No” selection for both teams to score is also favoured, with both sides known for patchy attacking returns and solid organisation. All-around, Novorizontino’s consistency on the road gives them a slender edge over an erratic but improving Athletic Club.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Athletic Club possible starting eleven

Roger Silva is expected to trust his experienced quartet at the back, headlined by Sidimar and Rodrigo Silva, with Jefferson Luís in goal—a player credited with 14 saves in the last five fixtures. The midfield balance of Sandry and Max allows Athletic Club to break up play and transition quickly, while all eyes will be on Ezequiel’s link-up with Neto Costa (three goals) to unlock the Novorizontino defense. The 4-2-3-1 formation remains the most probable approach, as it played to the squad’s strengths throughout the campaign.

Novorizontino possible starting eleven

Umberto Louzer’s likely lineup relies on defensive solidity with Jordi between the posts and a disciplined back four. Matheus Frizzo brings creativity and tackles from midfield, while up front, Pablo Dyego is the biggest threat—his ability to press and finish is vital for Novorizontino’s quick transitions. With the 4-2-3-1, their wide play remains a weapon, as evidenced by a notable 37 corners in recent matches.

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My take on the Match

My principal pick for this clash is Novorizontino Draw No Bet. In the context of two sides still searching for true consistency, the visitors’ calculated aggression, balanced yellow card count, and sustained attacking threat in terms of shots and corners hold sway. While Athletic Club are unpredictable and carry the advantage of home soil, their indiscipline and recent defensive lapses could be their undoing. For value seekers, backing a low-scoring encounter, possibly settled by a single moment of quality from the likes of Pablo Dyego or Neto Costa, makes a great deal of sense.

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