Rafael Nogueira
Athletic Club host Avai at Estadio Joaquim Portugal in a mid-table Série B clash where both sides badly need points. Athletic sit 10th with 13 points from 10 games, while Avai are two places below on 11 points from nine matches. The clubs met twice in last year’s Série B, with each side claiming one win, and Avai’s narrow 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture adds a competitive edge to this encounter. Paulo Vitor has been Avai’s most consistent attacking outlet in recent games, contributing a goal and solid passing numbers, while Luiz Henrique leads Avai’s midfield press with two interceptions and six free kicks earned in his last appearance. Hot stat: Avai have scored 10 goals across their last five matches, an impressive output for a side still finding consistency in the league table.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Campeonato Brasileiro Série B 2026, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Estadio Joaquim Portugal, Sao Joao del-Rei, Brazil |
| 🗓️ Date: | 28.06.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Athletic Club vs Avai Prediction
Athletic Club have drawn seven of their ten league games this season, a pattern that makes backing them to win a questionable choice even at home. Their last five matches produced four draws and a loss, and their attack has been particularly muted, registering zero goals across those five fixtures. Avai arrive in better offensive shape, scoring five goals in their last two competitive matches and averaging over two goals per game across their recent run.
Avai’s style involves a physically active 4-4-2 setup with notable foul frequency (16 fouls in the last recorded match) and a tendency to win free kicks in dangerous positions. Athletic’s 4-3-3 tends to control possession but struggles to convert. Given Athletic’s home draw tendency and Avai’s attacking momentum, the draw market has appeal, but the value sits with Avai on the road given their superior form this year (43% win rate vs Athletic’s 29%).
Avai commit fouls freely and earn set pieces in return, which could suit either side in a tight, physical contest. Athletic’s low pass accuracy in recent games suggests they will struggle to break down a compact Avai defensive block. We predict Avai to edge this one, or at worst share the points.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Avai to score in both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 1.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Under 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Athletic Club have collected just one win in their last five matches, losing two and drawing two. Their most recent outing ended 0-0 against Botafogo SP, and the match before that was another goalless draw against Juventude. The most telling result in this run was a 2-3 home defeat to Internacional, where Athletic showed they can score but also concede when opponents press them. Four consecutive draws before that defeat paint a picture of a team that avoids losing but rarely wins. Coach Alex has yet to find a reliable goalscoring solution in the 4-3-3 structure, and the team’s overall shot output remains limited.
Avai’s recent form is more dynamic, though inconsistent. They beat Chapecoense 3-0 in their most recent match, a sharp response to a chaotic 5-7 loss to the same opponent just days before. That 5-7 result stands out as a statistical outlier, and the follow-up win suggests the squad reset quickly. Prior to those two Chapecoense fixtures, Avai drew 0-0 with Criciuma and beat Volta Redonda 3-0, showing they can be clinical when motivated. A 2-2 draw against Volta Redonda earlier in the run adds balance to the picture. Avai’s eight matches in the last 30 days reflect a heavier schedule, and fatigue could be a factor, but their attack has been firing.
🚨Check out our dedicated Athletic Club vs Avai stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Athletic Club the Favourite
- Moneyline Athletic Club 1.95 | Avai 3.95
- Draw 3.25
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.75
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.80
The bookmakers price Athletic Club as clear home favorites at around 1.95, reflecting their home advantage and the general expectation of a competitive Série B fixture. To be honest, those odds feel slightly generous given Athletic’s uninspiring recent form and their inability to find the net in five straight matches. Avai at roughly 3.90-4.10 represents genuine value for a side with a 43% win rate this season and real attacking momentum. The draw at 3.25-3.40 is also worth noting, given Athletic’s seven draws from ten league games. Under 2.5 goals looks sensible at around 1.75 given Athletic’s scoring drought.
Possible Starting Lineups
Athletic Club’s squad data for the last five matches was not available in the provided stats. Coach Alex has consistently deployed a 4-3-3 formation this season. The team’s defensive solidity has been the foundation of their draw-heavy campaign, but the lack of attacking output remains a concern heading into this home fixture.
Avai Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Otávio
- DF: Mateus Quaresma Correia, Douglas da Silva Teixeira, Wallison, Joaquin Nicolas Cabral
- MF: Luiz Henrique, Romildo, Wenderson, Paulo Vitor
- FW: Wesley
Coach Cauan Almeida lines Avai up in a 4-4-2 shape. Paulo Vitor is the standout name, operating in an advanced midfield role with a goal to his name in the last recorded match and strong passing numbers. Luiz Henrique provides defensive cover and pressing intensity in the center of the park. Douglas da Silva Teixeira contributed an assist from defense and remains a set-piece threat. Wesley earned a yellow card in his last outing, signaling his physical approach down the flank, which could test Athletic’s defensive structure throughout the match.
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Avai. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Athletic Club’s seven draws from ten Série B games define this team’s character in 2026: hard to beat, harder to back. Their attack has gone completely cold across the last five fixtures, registering zero goals, and there is no statistical reason to expect that changes suddenly at home against an Avai side with genuine offensive momentum. Avai have scored eight goals in their last three competitive matches, and Paulo Vitor’s form in the final third gives them a genuine cutting edge. We predict Avai to win or draw, with the away win at roughly 3.95 offering the best value on the board. For safer exposure, the draw no bet on Avai at around 2.20 is worth considering. Under 2.5 goals remains a strong secondary market given Athletic’s recent goalscoring record.
