Sofia Quijada
Athletic Bilbao hosts Valencia at San Mamés Stadium in a clash that carries more significance than the mid-table status might suggest. Both teams sit just five points apart in the La Liga standings, yet the bookmakers clearly side with the Basques. Gorka Guruzeta stands out for Bilbao, contributing 3 goals and 2 assists in the last 4 matches, while Valencia’s Umar Sadiq remains a constant threat, notching 2 goals across recent games.
The hot stat: Athletic Bilbao scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches, more than double Valencia’s output.
| 🏆 Tournament: | La Liga 2025/26 Regular Season, Spain |
| 🏟 Venue: | San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao |
| 🗓️ Date: | 10.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 16:15 CEST |
Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia prediction
We predict Athletic Bilbao to win. The Basques hold a significant advantage at home, supported by their recent form and head-to-head record. Valencia struggles on the road and has scored just 3 goals in their last 5 matches. Bilbao’s ability to create chances is proven by their 46 shots, and their conversion rate far outpaces Valencia’s.
Both teams play with intensity, but Bilbao’s 52 fouls and Valencia’s 61 fouls in the last five games suggest a scrappy encounter with plenty of physical battles. Yellow cards have been equal at six apiece, pointing to a likely stop-start rhythm. Bilbao’s higher pass accuracy (83%) and greater volume of passes (1714) demonstrate better control, while Valencia’s 13 offsides in five matches highlight disjointed attacking moves. The referee’s involvement may rise as both sides fight for midfield dominance, which can result in more set-piece chances.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Over 5.5 cards |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Athletic Bilbao’s last five matches show two wins, three losses, and no draws. The highlight remains their recent 4-2 victory over Alavés, where the Basques dominated offensively, racking up four different goalscorers. Previous matches underline inconsistency: a tight 1-0 over Osasuna but disappointing home losses to Getafe and Villarreal.
Valencia’s form has been erratic. Their last match ended in a 0-2 defeat to Atletico Madrid, offering little threat up front. Before that, a narrow 2-1 win over Girona broke a winless spell, but losses against Elche and Celta Vigo exposed defensive gaps. Their attack has sputtered, finding the net just three times in five games, indicating why they remain underdogs away from home.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Athletic Bilbao | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 46 | 56 |
| Corner kicks | 31 | 18 |
| Total fouls | 52 | 61 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 83% | 82% |
| Interceptions | 39 | 34 |
| Offsides | 2 | 13 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Athletic Bilbao vs Valencia stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Athletic Bilbao the favourite
- Moneyline Athletic Bilbao 1.81 | Valencia 5.02
- Draw 4.00
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.65
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.75
The market strongly backs Athletic Bilbao, with odds averaging around 1.75 for the home win compared to 5.00 for Valencia. The draw hovers near 3.80-4.00, showing little faith in a stalemate. Over/Under lines reflect expectations for a low-scoring affair, a conclusion reinforced by both teams’ lack of clinical finishing lately. Both teams to score is not favored, as Valencia’s attack appears toothless and Bilbao rarely concedes at home when on form.
Possible Starting Lineups
Athletic Bilbao possible starting eleven
- GK: Unai Simon
- DF: Andoni Gorosabel, Daniel Vivian, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche
- MF: Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta, Mikel Jauregizar, Oihan Sancet, Alejandro Rego Mora
- FW: Gorka Guruzeta, Nicholas Williams Arthuer
Unai Simon keeps his spot in goal after consistent performances. In defense, Gorosabel, Vivian, Laporte, and Berchiche have logged the most minutes and give stability. The midfield sees Ruiz De Galarreta and Jauregizar as anchors, Sancet providing creative spark, and Rego Mora contributing both defensively and in transition. Up front, Guruzeta’s goal streak and Nicholas Williams’ direct play lead the attack. The 4-4-2 formation has proven effective, especially at home, allowing wide threats and central solidity.
Valencia possible starting eleven
- GK: Stole Dimitrievski
- DF: César Tárrega Requeni, José Gayà, Jesús Vázquez, Renzo Saravia
- MF: Guido Rodríguez, Javi Guerra, Filip Ugrinic, José Luis García Vayá, Luis Rioja
- FW: Umar Sadiq
Dimitrievski will start in goal, protected by Tárrega, Gayà, Vázquez, and Saravia, all regulars in recent matches. Rodríguez and Javi Guerra form a workmanlike midfield base, with Ugrinic and García Vayá tasked with supplying balls to wide midfielder Rioja and lone striker Umar Sadiq. Expect a 4-2-3-1 setup, relying on Sadiq’s movement up top. Gayà and Saravia’s overlapping runs will be crucial in stretching the Bilbao backline. Sadiq is the main danger, but the midfield must offer more support to create real chances.
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Valencia. Source: Official Website. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Athletic Bilbao will edge out Valencia in a physical, low-scoring contest. Bilbao’s superior recent attacking output, more accurate passing, and home strength give them the edge. Valencia’s struggles up front and tendency to get caught offside limit their chances. Expect a tight match, settled by Bilbao’s ability to capitalize on set-pieces and transitions. To be honest, Gorka Guruzeta’s clinical form could decide it, while Valencia’s attack likely falls short.
