Liam Duckstein
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Atalanta welcome Venezia to Bergamo on the back of a rough patch under Maurizio Sarri, sitting 11th in Serie A after losing three of their last five league games. Venezia arrive in even worse shape, propping up the whole table without a single win or draw this season. The interesting wrinkle here is that Atalanta’s defense has conceded only seven goals through five rounds, yet the attack has gone cold, scoring just once across the last five matches in all competitions. Venezia, meanwhile, have shipped thirteen goals already and haven’t tasted a point since August.
Gianluca Scamacca remains Atalanta’s most reliable outlet inside the box and the one man capable of turning a tight game on its head with a single touch. On the other side, Akor Adams has quietly built nine shots across his last two outings for Venezia, a volume that suggests he could trouble a shaky Atalanta backline if given space.
Hot stat: Venezia have lost every single one of their five league games this season with a goal difference of -9, the worst record in Serie A by a wide margin, a trend that makes this trip to Bergamo look brutally one-sided on paper.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | New Balance Arena, Bergamo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 12.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 18:30 CEST |
Atalanta vs Venezia prediction
We predict Atalanta to win this one, though perhaps not by the margin the bookmakers’ 60% implied probability suggests. Atalanta have struggled to find the net lately, but Venezia’s defense has been porous against sides far less talented, and that combination points toward a controlled home win rather than a goal avalanche.
Atalanta average fewer fouls and cards than Venezia in recent matches, with just two yellow cards shown across their last five games compared to eight for Venezia. That discipline gap often translates into fewer stoppages and more flowing football for the home side, who also hold a clear edge in passing accuracy. Venezia’s higher foul count and lower completion rate under pressure suggest they will spend long spells chasing the ball in Bergamo, which plays straight into Atalanta’s hands on a night they need control more than chaos.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Atalanta to win both halves |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 8.5 |
Team Analysis
Atalanta’s last outing ended in a 0-2 defeat to Juventus, a result that extended a worrying dip for Sarri’s men who have now lost three of their last five across all competitions. Before that setback they lost 1-2 to Cagliari and 1-2 to Roma, though they did manage a tidy 1-0 win over Bologna and a 1-0 result against Hapoel Tel Aviv in continental action. The pattern is clear: Atalanta create chances but finish poorly, scoring just once in five matches while still holding opponents to modest totals defensively.
Venezia’s form reads even grimmer. Their most recent match was a 0-2 home loss to Lazio, following a 2-4 collapse against Fiorentina and a 2-3 defeat to Frosinone. Even their better defensive showings, a 1-2 loss to Udinese and a 0-2 loss to Milan, ended without points. Six straight defeats across their last six matches in all competitions have left them bottom of the table with zero wins, and nothing in their recent displays suggests that run ends in Bergamo.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Atalanta | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2 | 0 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Atalanta vs Venezia stats page for more info.
Venezia. Source: Official Facebook
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atalanta the favourite
- Moneyline Atalanta 1.56 | Venezia 5.45
- Draw 4.10
The market leans heavily on Atalanta here, and we agree with that read. Odds around 1.56 for the hosts reflect a team still capable of grinding out results at home even while out of form, while Venezia’s price near 5.45 captures just how little confidence bettors have in a side with zero wins all season. The draw sitting close to 4.10 feels a touch generous given how porous Venezia’s defense has looked, but it remains a live outcome if Atalanta’s attack stays cold.
Possible Starting Lineups
Atalanta possible starting eleven
- GK: Marco Carnesecchi
- DF: Giorgio Scalvini, Thomas Kristensen, Sead Kolašinac
- MF: Raoul Bellanova, Davide Zappacosta, Éderson José dos Santos, Franck Kessié, Lazar Samardzic
- FW: Gianluca Scamacca, Jonathan Rowe
Sarri should stick with his preferred 3-5-2 shape, trusting Scalvini and Kristensen to anchor the back line while Bellanova and Zappacosta provide width from wing-back spots. Scamacca leads the line as the focal point, with Rowe’s directness offering a useful outlet when Atalanta need to break quickly rather than build patiently through Kessié and Samardzic in midfield.
Venezia possible starting eleven
- GK: Filip Stankovic
- DF: Richie Sagrado, Joël Schingtienne, Matias Moreno, Antoine Hainaut
- MF: Simon Sohm, Enrique Pérez Muñoz, John Yeboah
- FW: Akor Adams, Lion Lauberbach, Albion Rrahmani
Stroppa is likely to keep his 4-3-3 setup intact, leaning on Sohm and Pérez Muñoz to control tempo in midfield while Adams spearheads the attack after a lively run of shots on goal. Hainaut’s willingness to push forward from fullback gives Venezia a rare attacking outlet, though it could easily backfire against Atalanta’s quick transitions.
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Atalanta. Source: Official Facebook
TipsGG Match Prediction
To be honest, this looks like a straightforward night for Atalanta on paper, but their recent finishing woes keep us cautious about backing a heavy win. Venezia’s defensive numbers are alarming, conceding thirteen goals in five league games, and their attack has managed only four goals all season. We expect Atalanta’s control and Venezia’s fragility to combine for a comfortable, low-scoring home win, likely somewhere around 2-0 or 1-0. Our pick leans toward Atalanta to win, Under 2.5 total goals, and no goal for the visitors, a combination that matches both teams’ recent patterns closely.
