Atalanta vs Pisa Prediction: 24.08.2025 Serie A Preview

A fresh Serie A campaign brings an intriguing early fixture as Atalanta welcome newly promoted Pisa to the iconic Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo. While many expect a routine opening assignment for Atalanta, Pisa’s impressive momentum under Alberto Gilardino signals a side perfectly poised to test elite opposition. Both teams favour a 3-4-2-1 formation, promising a fascinating tactical chess match in midfield and wide areas.

For Atalanta, much rests on the creative influence of their No. 10, whose ability to unlock packed defences could be pivotal, while Pisa’s energetic engine Marius Marin – fresh from a run of disciplined midfield displays – will likely be at the heart of every counter and transition. An eye should also be kept on Atalanta’s wing-backs, whose overlaps often stretch even the most disciplined back lines.

Hot stat? Pisa arrive unbeaten in their last five, with a 56% win rate in 2025 so far – an impressive record for a club acclimatizing to top-flight football.

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Atalanta vs Pisa prediction

Given Atalanta’s home pedigree and relative Serie A stature, the bookmakers make them clear favourites, with an average 65% probability for Gian Piero Gasperini’s side (now helmed by Ivan Juric). However, Pisa’s efficiency on the break and a sturdy defensive block suggest this could be tighter than many expect.

The best value pick may well be Atalanta to win and both teams to score. Atalanta’s recent five games have shown both leaky moments and flashes of attacking brilliance (notably the comeback win over RB Leipzig and a gallant effort versus Juventus despite the loss). Pisa have scored at least once in all but one of their last seven, and their 3-2 win over Empoli confirms their attacking threat. Atalanta’s high press can leave spaces – an opportunity for Pisa to capitalise, especially if Marin and Lind link up in the transitions.

Discipline could be a decisive factor – Pisa were shown four yellow cards in their most recent Serie A outing, suggesting they won’t shy away from stopping Atalanta’s rhythm, but also risk dangerous set pieces around their own penalty area. Atalanta, intriguingly, have kept a cleaner discipline sheet recently, which bodes well for maintaining a measured tempo and pressing without recklessness.

Team Analysis

Atalanta recent matches: Atalanta’s pre-season and opening competitive fixtures have been a mixed bag, highlighting both vulnerabilities at the back and flashes of dynamic attack. Their last Serie A match saw a narrow 1-2 home defeat to Juventus, with Atalanta starting brightly but conceding twice to a clinical Juve forward line. Earlier, a thrilling 3-3 draw with Opatija showcased defensive fragility, while morale-boosting wins over Monza and RB Leipzig highlighted their capacity for incisive, vertical football. Defensively, conceding seven in the last three is concerning and should be a primary focus at the training ground. Still, with a 3-4-2-1, overlapping wing-backs remain a constant outlet.

Pisa recent matches: Pisa, fresh from Serie B, have looked robust if not spectacular. Their most recent 2-1 win over Cesena underlines their knack for late-game determination, while draws with Pistoiese and FC Augsburg suggest improved resilience compared to their 3-0 reverse at the hands of Leverkusen. With 19 fouls committed in their last five games, Pisa walk a disciplinary tightrope but appear well-drilled in transitions. Up front, Alexander Lind has provided sharpness, and Marin’s midfield balance is crucial. Notably, the squad accumulated five yellow cards in the previous match, which might become a concern if Atalanta target those disciplinary lapses.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Atalanta vs Pisa stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Atalanta the favourite

• Moneyline Atalanta 1.47 | Pisa 6.30
• Draw 4.66
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.68 | Under 2.5 2.10
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.03 | No 1.74

There is clear consensus among bookmakers that Atalanta’s top-flight perennial status and home advantage tip the scales, with Pisa’s odds reflecting their underdog status. Still, the hefty price on Pisa to win (over 6.0) might tempt a few bold punters, especially with the visitors’ positive away form. The Over 2.5 looks solid given both teams’ attacking approach, and “Both Teams To Score: Yes” is well-priced. However, Atalanta’s higher pass accuracy and experience facing more robust attacks tilt the likelihood towards a home win with goals at both ends.

You can find all our predictions for today’s games on our football betting tips page.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Atalanta possible starting eleven

Given Atalanta’s preference for the 3-4-2-1 and recent match data, expect Musso to retain his spot in goal, flanked by Toloi, Djimsiti, and Scalvini in a back three. Wing-backs Zappacosta and Ruggeri provide both width and defensive cover, while midfield maestros Koopmeiners and Pasalic orchestrate play. Creative sparks in Miranchuk and De Ketelaere will support Scamacca up front – a side rich in ball retention and attacking transitions. Miranchuk’s contribution, in particular, could be decisive in unlocking Pisa’s low block.

Pisa possible starting eleven

Pisa, having adopted a consistent 3-4-2-1, are likely to stick with experience at the back: Canestrelli, Caracciolo, and Calabresi. Marin and Toure anchor the midfield, with Aebischer and Angori offering dynamism on the flanks. Lind will spearhead the attack, ably assisted by Tramoni and Moreo. The key for Pisa will be absorbing early pressure and exploiting spaces on the counter; Marin’s ball-winning and transition play could be their ace in the hole.

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My take on the Match

This fixture looks set to ignite both sets of supporters. Atalanta’s defensive hiccups may gift Pisa opportunities, but the hosts’ home prowess, midfield intelligence, and attacking variety should tip the balance. Pisa are no pushovers, and if their forwards can find early joy, it could get nervy. Still, our main pick is Atalanta to win with both teams likely to get on the scoresheet – a result that sets the tone for both clubs: Atalanta as top-four contenders, and Pisa as upstarts full of promise and fighting spirit. Can the newcomers cause a shock? Stranger things have happened in Serie A, but on balance, Atalanta’s tactical flexibility and experience ought to prevail in an entertaining and open encounter.

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