Atalanta vs Lazio Prediction: 22.04.2026 Coppa Italia

The Coppa Italia 2025/26 semifinal concludes as Atalanta welcome Lazio to the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. With both teams tied after the first leg (2-2), this return fixture is poised to be a tactical battle, pitting Raffaele Palladino’s disciplined Atalanta against Maurizio Sarri’s dynamic Lazio. Given both teams’ identical form in recent weeks and their matching win rates in the last 30 days, the stage is set for a closely-fought encounter with a final berth on the line.

Atalanta’s Nikola Krstović has been the focal point in attack, netting 2 goals in his last 4 appearances, while Lazio’s Kenneth Taylor is emerging as a key playmaker, having contributed 2 goals and 2 assists across his last 4 matches. Their duel in midfield and attack could prove pivotal, especially with both managers opting for mirrored 3-4-2-1 formations in recent games.

Hot stat: Atalanta have averaged 11.4 total shots per match over their last 5 games, highlighting their attacking intent at home, while Lazio have maintained 86 percent pass accuracy, underlining their focus on controlled buildup.

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Atalanta vs Lazio prediction

The most valuable prediction for this semifinal is Atalanta Draw No Bet. Atalanta’s home form, combined with their higher shot volume and disciplined defending, gives them a marginal edge. Lazio, while tactically sound under Sarri, have struggled for consistency away from home, and their lower goal output over the season (winrate 33 percent in 2026) further tilts the balance.

Both sides play with three at the back, emphasizing wing play and central overloads. Atalanta are aggressive, as evidenced by 51 fouls and 6 yellow cards in their last 5 matches, suggesting a physical midfield battle. Lazio’s style is more possession-based (2095 passes in last 5 matches, 86 percent accuracy), but they too have collected 7 yellows and committed 39 fouls, showing they are not afraid to disrupt rhythm. Expect a tactical game with controlled build-ups, frequent transitions, and both teams probing for set-piece opportunities. The fouls and yellow card count could influence the tempo, possibly leading to a tighter affair than the first leg.

Team Analysis

Atalanta’s most recent fixture was a 1-1 home draw against Roma. The team produced a solid all-round display, registering 13 total shots and 57 percent possession. Atalanta’s defensive organization was commendable, and while they conceded, they limited Roma’s clear-cut opportunities and showed resilience after falling behind. Across their last five matches, Atalanta have claimed two wins, two draws, and a single defeat, underscoring their ability to respond under pressure, particularly at home.

Lazio, meanwhile, are coming off a convincing 2-0 home win over Napoli. Sarri’s men controlled the midfield, completing over 550 passes at an 86 percent accuracy rate, and their pressing led to multiple turnovers in advanced areas. However, their previous away performance a 1-1 draw against Parma exposed some defensive vulnerabilities, with Lazio conceding several dangerous chances. Their recent form (two wins, a draw, and a loss) mirrors Atalanta’s, but away from Rome, Lazio’s performances have lacked consistency, particularly in front of goal.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Atalanta vs Lazio stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Atalanta the favourite

• Moneyline Atalanta 1.74 | Lazio 4.70
• Draw 3.74
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.11 | Under 2.5 1.75
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 2.00 | No 1.74

The bookmakers clearly favour Atalanta, primarily due to their home advantage and stronger shot statistics. The under 2.5 goals line is short, reflecting expectations of a cagey, tactical battle. Both Teams To Score: No also carries value, considering both sides’ defensive discipline in recent cup matches. Lazio’s higher odds as outsiders are justified by their inconsistent away form and Atalanta’s ability to capitalize on home support.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Atalanta possible starting eleven

Atalanta should maintain their 3-4-2-1 setup, maximizing width through Zappacosta and De Ketelaere. Carnesecchi has been reliable in goal, while Djimsiti, Scalvini, and Kolašinac provide defensive solidity. Krstović and Raspadori offer movement and finishing, with Pašalić supporting between the lines. Watch for De Ketelaere’s creativity and Krstović’s poaching instincts.

Lazio possible starting eleven

Lazio are expected to mirror the 3-4-2-1, with Motta in goal and Romagnoli anchoring the back three. Taylor’s all-action midfield play is crucial for transitions, while Cancellieri and Noslin’s pace and pressing could test Atalanta’s defence. Isaksen provides width, with Lazzari and Marušić tasked with covering both defensive and attacking duties.

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The Verdict

My main pick is Atalanta Draw No Bet. The hosts’ higher attacking output and home support, coupled with Lazio’s patchy away record and tendency to concede under pressure, make this a logical, risk-managed selection. Expect Atalanta to control proceedings for large stretches, but Lazio’s quality on the break could keep things tense. A narrow win or a draw (with Atalanta advancing on away goals or extra time) is the most probable outcome, with set-pieces and midfield duels as decisive factors.

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