Liam Duckstein
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Atalanta welcome Frosinone to Bergamo on matchday eight with the tables somewhat reversed from what most fans expected back in August. Frosinone sit sixth, four points clear of Atalanta who are stuck in eleventh with a negative goal difference. Maurizio Sarri’s side remain the bookmakers’ pick at home, but the form book tells a different story this autumn.
Perhaps the most interesting wrinkle here is Frosinone’s away record under Massimiliano Alvini. They’ve won three of their last four outright and look sharper on the counter than their modest squad depth suggests. Atalanta, meanwhile, have lost three of their last five and conceded in almost every one of them.
Nikola Krstović has been Atalanta’s standout forward with three goals in four appearances, and his movement in behind could be decisive against a Frosinone back line that concedes regularly on the road. For the visitors, Antonio Raimondo has been lethal in limited minutes, scoring three goals in just two matches, a conversion rate that should worry Sarri’s defenders.
Hot stat: Atalanta have fired 70 shots across their last five matches, almost double Frosinone’s 38, yet they’ve scored only 8 goals in that span. That gap between volume and clinical finishing sums up their inconsistent season so far.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Serie A 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | New Balance Arena, Bergamo |
| 🗓️ Date: | 25.10.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 15:00 CEST |
Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction
We predict Frosinone to leave Bergamo unbeaten. Their recent away form, three wins in four, combined with Atalanta’s leaky defense and poor home consistency, makes the double chance on the visitors genuinely appealing value even against a side priced as favorites. Atalanta’s attack can hurt anyone on their day, but their defending has been loose enough that Frosinone should fancy their chances of at least a point.
Atalanta have committed 45 fouls and picked up 4 yellow cards across their last five games, a moderate but not reckless disciplinary record. Frosinone, by contrast, have been remarkably clean, just 25 fouls and zero yellow cards in the same stretch. That discipline gap suggests Frosinone can stay compact without conceding cheap free-kicks in dangerous zones, something Atalanta’s set-piece routines, with 26 attempted free kicks recently, could otherwise exploit.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Frosinone Double Chance (Draw or Win) |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Atalanta’s last five results read win, loss, win, win, draw, win, loss, loss, loss, win, win, loss, loss in the broader sample, but the headline is their most recent trip to face Ajax, where they fell 0-2 despite decent underlying numbers. In our preview of Ajax vs Atalanta we called Atalanta to avoid defeat on the back of their shot volume and passing numbers, and the 0-2 scoreline went against us. That loss continues a worrying pattern of leaky defending that should give Frosinone confidence heading into this one.
Frosinone arrive full of confidence after thrashing Sassuolo 4-2 in their last outing, a result that fits their broader trend of three wins and a draw in their last four matches. In our preview of Frosinone vs Sassuolo we backed the hosts to edge a high-scoring, open contest with goals at both ends, and the eventual 4-2 scoreline delivered exactly that. Alvini’s side look sharp in transition and should carry that same attacking threat into Bergamo.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
Atalanta and Frosinone have no recent competitive meetings in the data available to us, so there’s no head-to-head table to draw from for this preview.
🚨Check out our dedicated Atalanta vs Frosinone stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Atalanta the favourite
- Moneyline Atalanta 1.81 | Frosinone 3.85
- Draw 4.10
Bookmakers lean toward Atalanta at roughly 52% implied probability, mostly on home advantage rather than current form. The gap between 1.81 for the hosts and 3.85 for Frosinone looks a touch generous given the league table and recent results both favor the visitors. Our punters team sees real value on Frosinone given how the market seems to be pricing reputation over actual output this season.
Possible Starting Lineups
Atalanta possible starting eleven
- GK: Marco Carnesecchi
- DF: Lorenzo Bernasconi, Thomas Kristensen, Sead Kolašinac, Davide Zappacosta
- MF: Mario Pašalić, Éderson José dos Santos, Charles De Ketelaere, Lazar Samardzic, Nicola Zalewski
- FW: Nikola Krstović
Sarri’s expected 4-2-3-1 keeps Pašalić and Éderson shielding the back line while De Ketelaere and Zalewski push forward around Krstović. Watch Krstović closely, his three goals in four games make him the one genuine threat in a misfiring attack.
Frosinone possible starting eleven
- GK: Lorenzo Palmisani
- DF: Anthony Oyono, Ilario Monterisi, Giorgio Cittadini, Gabriele Calvani
- MF: Matteo Cichella, Patrizio Masini
- FW: Giacomo Calò, Romano Schmid, Farès Ghedjemis, Antonio Raimondo
Alvini’s 4-2-3-1 mirrors Atalanta’s setup, with Cichella and Masini holding the middle while Calò drives the attack behind Raimondo. Raimondo’s scoring run makes him the player Atalanta’s defenders need to track all afternoon.
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Frosinone. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
The Verdict
We predict Frosinone to avoid defeat in Bergamo, backed by their superior recent form and Atalanta’s recurring defensive lapses. Both sides have shown they can score against decent opposition, Frosinone’s 4-2 win over Sassuolo and Atalanta’s 3-1 wins over Venezia and Pafos prove as much, so goals at both ends feel like the safest angle. To be honest, a 1-1 or 2-2 scoreline would surprise nobody on our team given how open both defenses have looked this month.
