Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction: 17.05.2026 Serie A

Atalanta face Bologna at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo as Serie A’s regular season nears its end. While Atalanta currently sit 7th and Bologna are just below in 8th, both sides have struggled for consistency in recent weeks, but maintain hopes of European football. Interestingly, Atalanta’s passing game stands out — they’ve attempted over 2900 passes in their last five matches, a huge volume compared to Bologna’s 2250. This clash could well be decided in midfield, where Atalanta’s tempo could test Bologna’s pressing under Vincenzo Italiano.

Two key figures demand attention: Gianluca Scamacca, Atalanta’s forward, has scored twice in his last five, and Bologna’s Riccardo Orsolini, who keeps threatening from the wing and can change a match in a flash. The battle between these two could tip the balance. The hot stat: Atalanta have fired 79 shots in their last five league games, dwarfing Bologna’s 51. That sort of offensive output speaks volumes about their intent.

Atalanta vs Bologna prediction

We predict Atalanta to win. The bookmakers’ average probability (58%) supports this, and the side’s home record, greater shot volume, and more accurate passing create a compelling case. Bologna’s recent uptick in results — including a win over Napoli — shouldn’t be ignored, but their defensive gaps and lower attacking productivity put them at a disadvantage in Bergamo.

Atalanta’s style leans on ball possession and high passing accuracy (74%), but they’re not shy about tackling either, racking up 74 fouls in their last five. Bologna, more direct and energetic under Italiano, play at a brisk tempo but often lack final-third quality. Both teams have been shown a fair number of yellow cards (Atalanta 9, Bologna 7 in last five), so expect a hard-fought contest that could see tempers flare. Atalanta’s superior interception and corner stats suggest more time spent in the opposition half, which further reinforces our prediction.

Team Analysis

Atalanta’s last match saw them edge Milan 3-2 in a thrilling contest, with Scamacca and Pašalić both finding the net. The team ended a run of three draws and a defeat, showing renewed attacking confidence and a bit of defensive vulnerability, conceding twice but still controlling much of the game. Their earlier matches revealed patchy form — a 0-0 with Genoa, a 2-3 slip against Cagliari, and successive 1-1 draws with Lazio and Roma. The attack keeps firing, but lapses at the back remain a concern.

Bologna arrive off a momentum-boosting 3-2 victory over Napoli, with Orsolini again influential. Their recent record is checkered: a 0-0 with Cagliari, 0-2 losses to Roma and Juventus, and a heavy 0-4 defeat to Aston Villa. Bologna’s win over Napoli was only their second in six games, but their fighting spirit was evident. Defensive gaps have cost them dearly, but the attack, led by Bernardeschi and Orsolini, can still find goals when it clicks.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Check out our dedicated Atalanta vs Bologna stats page for more info.

Pre-game odds and win probability: Atalanta the favourite

• Moneyline Atalanta 1.65 | Bologna 4.82
• Draw 4.18
• Over/Under Over 2.5 1.98 | Under 2.5 1.82
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.73 | No 2.10

These odds align closely with our view. Atalanta at 1.65 is short but justified — their greater shot output, home support, and higher recent league standing give them an edge. Bologna’s 4.82 price reflects both their unpredictability and defensive frailty. The draw odds are fairly high at 4.18, indicating a strong belief that a winner will emerge. Over 2.5 goals at 1.98 is enticing, considering both teams’ tendency to concede and Atalanta’s attacking numbers. Both teams scoring at 1.73 seems likely — neither defense looks watertight.

Possible Starting Lineups

Atalanta possible starting eleven

Marco Carnesecchi should keep his spot in goal, with Djimsiti, Kolašinac, and Scalvini making up the back three — all have logged significant minutes recently. De Roon and Éderson anchor the midfield, both bringing energy and tackling. Zappacosta and De Ketelaere operate as wing-backs, supporting attack and defense. Up top, Scamacca leads the line, with Raspadori and Krstović providing movement and goal threat. Atalanta should stick with their 3-4-2-1, maximizing width and midfield overload. Scamacca’s sharpness and Krstović’s ability to drop deep will be crucial.

Bologna possible starting eleven

Ravaglia has featured most in goal lately. At the back, Lucumi, Miranda, and Vitik look most likely to start. Freuler and Ferguson form a sturdy central pairing, with Moro and Zortea as engines on the flanks. Orsolini, Rowe, and Bernardeschi lead the attack — Orsolini’s pace and Bernardeschi’s flair stand out as threats. Bologna will likely mirror Atalanta’s 3-4-2-1, hoping to strike quickly on the break or exploit set pieces. Keep an eye on Orsolini and Bernardeschi for moments of quality.

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TipsGG Match Prediction

We predict Atalanta will secure a home victory, with both teams likely to score and the match to produce over 2.5 goals. Atalanta’s superior offensive output, more creative midfield, and the support of their home crowd should make the difference. Bologna have the tools to trouble Atalanta, but their patchy defending and tendency to lose the midfield battle play against them. To be honest, Atalanta’s greater shot volume and sharper attack make them our pick.

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