Liam Duckstein
Aston Villa hosts Nottingham Forest at Villa Park in the second leg of the UEFA Europa League semifinals. This match features two English clubs with contrasting recent forms: Villa, led by Unai Emery, looks to overturn a first-leg deficit, while Vitor Pereira’s Forest rides a strong unbeaten streak. The stakes are clear—a place in the Europa League final, and both managers will feel the pressure. Of particular interest: Nottingham Forest have not lost a match in their last seven fixtures, making them one of the most in-form teams in the competition.
Keep your eyes on Ollie Watkins for Villa and Morgan Gibbs-White for Forest. Watkins’ work rate and knack for finding space inside the box give Villa a cutting edge up front, while Gibbs-White’s five goals in his last six appearances mark him as Forest’s most dangerous man in big moments. Both sides have highly involved keepers—Emiliano Martínez for Villa and Matz Sels for Forest—who are likely to play key roles if this tie gets tight.
Hot stat: Nottingham Forest have scored 15 goals in their last five matches, averaging three per game, while conceding just twice in that span. Forest’s attack is currently among the most effective in Europe.
| 🏆 Tournament: | UEFA Europa League 2025/26 Semifinals |
| 🏟 Venue: | Villa Park, Birmingham |
| 🗓️ Date: | 07.05.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 21:00 CEST |
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction
We predict a narrow Nottingham Forest win or draw at Villa Park. Forest’s unbeaten streak is backed by a strong attacking output—15 goals in their last five matches—while Villa’s defense has shown lapses, losing three of their last seven games. Bookmakers slightly favor Villa due to home advantage and higher historical ranking, but Forest’s discipline and efficiency on the break tilt the value towards the visitors.
Aston Villa plays a moderately aggressive style, tallying 70 fouls and 7 yellow cards across their last five matches, indicating a willingness to disrupt play. Their pass accuracy sits at 84.6%—decent but sometimes let down by rushed transitions. Forest, meanwhile, have similar discipline stats (63 fouls, 7 yellows in the same span) but a slightly lower pass accuracy at 83.4%. Both teams average around 13-14 shots per match, but Forest finish chances at a much better rate.
Given Forest’s recent scoring form and Villa’s need to attack, expect both sides to create numerous opportunities. There’s value in predicting both teams to score, a match with over 2.5 goals, and an above-average number of corners as Villa chase the tie.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Nottingham Forest to qualify |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Over 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | Yes |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 9.5 |
Team Analysis
Aston Villa’s last match saw them fall 1-2 to Tottenham at home, struggling to convert chances and conceding twice against a mid-table side. The team’s form has been patchy, with just three wins from their last seven games, and they have lost each of their last two at home. Villa often dominate possession but lack penetration in the final third, relying heavily on Watkins and the creativity of Buendía.
Nottingham Forest’s most recent outing was a confident 3-1 home win over Chelsea. Forest showcased clinical finishing, with Gibbs-White pulling the strings and Chris Wood converting chances efficiently. Forest’s unbeaten run (five wins and two draws in the last seven) underlines their momentum. Their compact 4-2-3-1 setup has brought defensive stability and allowed them to counter at pace, punishing opponents for any mistakes.
Most recent Head-to-Head Matches
| Statistic | Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Total shots | 12 | 11 |
| Free kicks | 13 | 14 |
| Corner kicks | 7 | 6 |
| Total fouls | 14 | 13 |
| Pass accuracy (%) | 83% | 81% |
| Interceptions | 8 | 9 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
🚨Check out our dedicated Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest stats page for more info.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Aston Villa the favourite
- Moneyline Aston Villa 1.88 | Nottingham Forest 4.40
- Draw 3.90
- Over/Under Over 2.5 2.00 | Under 2.5 1.80
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.80 | No 2.00
Bookmakers install Villa as favorites, pricing them at just under even money. That’s mostly down to home advantage and pedigree, but Forest’s recent run and better head-to-head record in the first leg suggest the value sits with backing the away side or the draw. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both look fairly priced given Forest’s attacking stats and Villa’s need to score. The draw price reflects the tightness of the contest, but Forest’s odds are longer than they should be based on current form.
Possible Starting Lineups
Aston Villa possible starting eleven
- GK: Emiliano Martínez
- DF: Matty Cash, Tyrone Mings, Ezri Konsa, Lucas Digne
- MF: John McGinn, Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Lamare Bogarde
- FW: Ollie Watkins
Martínez starts in goal, with a familiar back four anchored by Mings and Konsa. Cash and Digne operate as fullbacks, contributing width and overlapping runs. The midfield trio includes McGinn for engine work, Tielemans for passing range, and Rogers for drive. Buendía and Bogarde support Watkins, who leads the line. Villa should stick to their 4-2-3-1, prioritizing possession. Watch for Rogers to make late runs from deep and Buendía to pull defenders out of position.
Nottingham Forest possible starting eleven
- GK: Matz Sels
- DF: Neco Williams, Nikola Milenković, Felipe Morato, Ola Aina
- MF: Ryan Yates, Nicolás Domínguez, Omari Hutchinson, Elliot Anderson, Morgan Gibbs-White
- FW: Chris Wood
Sels remains the first-choice keeper. Williams and Aina fill the fullback slots, with Milenković and Morato at center-back. Yates and Domínguez anchor midfield, Hutchinson and Anderson provide energy and link-up play, and Gibbs-White acts as the creative force behind Wood, who is Forest’s focal point up front. Pereira will keep his 4-2-3-1 that’s worked wonders in recent weeks. Gibbs-White’s form makes him the main threat, while Wood’s physicality can disrupt Villa’s center-backs.
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Nottingham Forest. Source: Official Facebook. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
We predict Nottingham Forest will frustrate Villa and edge a result or secure a draw to progress. Their recent scoring run, combined with Villa’s inconsistent finishing and slightly leaky defense, tips the balance. Gibbs-White and Wood should trouble Villa’s back line, while Forest’s organized shape will keep the game close. Villa’s urgency will create opportunities, but Forest’s counterattacking precision and current confidence look set to make the difference.
