Liam Duckstein
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Olympiacos arrive in Tripolis as heavy favourites, and the numbers back that up entirely. The visitors have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, including a 3-0 demolition the last time these two met in the Super League 1. Asteras Tripolis are already bottom of the early 2026/27 standings after a 1-3 opening day defeat, so the pressure on Georgios Antonopoulos’ side is real and immediate. José Luis Mendilibar’s men picked up a 1-0 win over Atromitos on matchday one and will look to build on that momentum away from home.
Keep an eye on Ayoub El Kaabi for Olympiacos, who has been the most dangerous outlet in attack across recent matches with 10 shots in three games. For Asteras Tripolis, Ricardo Viana Filho has shown some creative spark off the bench, registering an assist and four shot-creating actions in two appearances.
A hot stat worth flagging: Olympiacos fired 47 total shots across their last five matches compared to just 17 for Asteras Tripolis. That volume advantage is enormous and reflects a completely different level of attacking intent.
| 🏆 Tournament: | Super League 1 2026/27, Regular Season |
| 🏟 Venue: | Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripolis |
| 🗓️ Date: | 30.08.2026 |
| ⏰ Time: | 20:00 CEST |
Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiacos Prediction
The bookmakers give Olympiacos a 71% implied win probability, and the evidence from recent form, head-to-head results, and squad quality all point in the same direction. Olympiacos have beaten Asteras Tripolis in their last three Super League encounters, and Asteras have not scored in two of those games. The home side are without a clean sheet in their last five matches and conceded three on matchday one of this season.
We predict an Olympiacos win to nil as the best value play here. Asteras Tripolis managed just one goal across their last five matches, and that came against third-tier opposition. Against a well-organised Olympiacos defensive block, their attack is unlikely to find a way through.
Asteras Tripolis committed 14 fouls in five matches while Olympiacos racked up 44, suggesting Mendilibar’s side play a more physical, pressing game that tends to slow down lower-ranked opponents. Asteras carry a red card in their recent five-match sample and their pass accuracy is poor at 343 out of 429 attempted, pointing to a team that will struggle to build from the back against Olympiacos’ aggressive pressing structure. Olympiacos’ 1,062 accurate passes out of 1,425 attempts tells a story of a team that controls possession and dictates tempo, which should give them a comfortable platform in Tripolis.
| 🔥Hot Tip: | Olympiacos to Win to Nil |
| ⚽Total Goals: | Under 2.5 |
| 💥Both Teams To Score: | No |
| 🎯Total Corners: | Over 7.5 |
Team Analysis
Asteras Tripolis have had a difficult stretch. Across their last seven matches they recorded two wins, three losses, and two draws for a 29% win rate. Their most recent outing was a 1-3 home defeat to Panetolikos on matchday one of the Super League season, a result that immediately placed them at the foot of the table. Before that, they lost 0-2 to Levadiakos in what was a poor pre-season preparation result. Their only bright moment in recent weeks was a 3-1 win over AEK Larnaca, but that came against a side ranked well outside the top tier of European football. The pattern is clear: Asteras struggle against quality opposition and have scored just once in their last three competitive matches.
Olympiacos have also had a mixed recent run, winning just one of their last five matches with three defeats in that same period. Their 30-day win rate sits at only 20%, which is surprisingly low for a side of their stature. Their last match, a 1-0 win over Atromitos in the Super League opener, was tight but effective. Before that they suffered back-to-back European losses against Nijmegen and a 2-3 defeat to AZ Alkmaar. Those results came in European competition against strong Dutch opposition, so the context matters. Domestically, Mendilibar’s side have looked far more reliable, and the step down in quality to face Asteras Tripolis at home should suit them well.
🚨Check out our dedicated Asteras Tripolis vs Olympiacos stats page for more info.
Pre-game Odds and Win Probability: Olympiacos the Favourite
- Moneyline Asteras Tripolis 9.43 | Olympiacos 1.32
- Draw 4.96
- Over/Under Over 2.5 N/A | Under 2.5 N/A
- BTTS (both teams to score) Yes N/A | No N/A
The moneyline odds on Olympiacos at around 1.30-1.33 reflect just how dominant they are expected to be in this fixture. To be honest, those odds are short, but the underlying data supports the price. Asteras at 9.43 is a long shot that only makes sense if Olympiacos have a complete off day, which is possible given their recent European fatigue. The draw at 4.96 is not attractive given neither team’s form points toward a stalemate at this level of quality difference.
Possible Starting Lineups
Asteras Tripolis Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Nikolaos Papadopoulos
- DF: Franz Brorsson, Konstantinos Chrysopoulos, Dimitrios Laskaris
- MF: Dimitrios Kourbelis, Eder González, Julián Bartolo, Antonis Papakanellos, Giannis Bouzoukis
- FW: Ricardo Viana Filho, Franco Orozco
Antonopoulos is likely to set up in his familiar 4-2-3-1 shape, with Kourbelis and González as the double pivot providing cover for a back four. Papadopoulos takes the gloves after making two recent appearances. Ricardo Viana Filho is the most likely creative outlet, having recorded an assist in recent games, while Franco Orozco offers pace on the counter. Expect a compact, defensive setup designed to limit space rather than chase the game.
Olympiacos Possible Starting Eleven
- GK: Stefan Ortega
- DF: Rodinei, Lorenzo Pirola, Bruno Onyemaechi, Panagiotis Retsos
- MF: Dani García, Santiago Hezze, Kostas Fortounis, Gustavo Sá
- FW: Ayoub El Kaabi, Gelson Martins
Mendilibar’s preferred 4-2-2-2 shape places Dani García and Hezze as the defensive midfield pairing, with Fortounis and Gustavo Sá pushing forward from deeper positions. Ayoub El Kaabi leads the line and is the most dangerous attacker in this squad based on shot volume. Gelson Martins offers direct, wide running and has earned nine free kicks across his last three matches, making him a constant threat. Stefan Ortega starts in goal with Balša Popović as cover. Rodinei at right back has been excellent in possession, completing 94 of 126 passes in recent games.
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Asteras Tripolis. Source: Official X/Twitter. Edited photo
TipsGG Match Prediction
Olympiacos are the clear pick here. They have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, scored eight goals to Asteras’ three in those games, and arrive in better domestic shape after a winning start to the Super League season. Asteras Tripolis are low on confidence, short on goals, and playing against a side with far superior squad depth and tactical organisation.
We predict an Olympiacos win, most likely by a single goal margin given their recent tendency to control rather than dominate matches. The best value bet remains Olympiacos to Win to Nil, backed by Asteras’ inability to score against quality defences and Mendilibar’s side keeping things tight at the back when it matters. Under 2.5 goals is also a reasonable secondary play given both teams’ current attacking output levels.
