Aris Thessaloniki vs PAOK Prediction: 08.02.2026 Super League

This Thessaloniki derby between Aris and PAOK, set under the floodlights at Kleanthis Vikelides, brings more than local pride to the table—there’s a weighty clash of ambitions as well. Aris, under Manolo Jiménez, are seeking to assert themselves in a challenging campaign, while Răzvan Lucescu’s PAOK arrive with impressive form and their eyes fixed on bridging the slender gap to the summit. What’s especially intriguing is Aris’ determination to disrupt PAOK’s rhythm, a familiar narrative in Greek football—will the underdogs flip the script at home?

For Aris, much pivots around Uros Racic and the creative spark Carles Pérez offers out wide. Racic’s box-to-box dynamism could be the engine Aris need, while Pérez’s vision and quick feet might just unpick PAOK’s defence. On the PAOK side, Giorgos Giakoumakis stands out as a relentless finisher—he’s bagged four goals in his last five games, proving a constant threat. Dimitrios Pelkas, orchestrating things from midfield, provides both clinical finishing and clever distribution, having contributed two goals and an assist recently.

The “hot stat”? Well, PAOK have netted 12 goals in their last five games—three times as many as Aris—making them the division’s most prolific recent attack. Can Aris weather the storm?

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Aris Thessaloniki vs PAOK prediction

The numbers and recent performances lean decisively towards PAOK. Their 75 percent win rate in the last 30 days is hard to ignore, and with a +28 goal difference, Lucescu’s men are simply firing on all cylinders. Aris, on the other hand, have managed just two wins in their last six—there’s little sign they’re about to spring a major upset, even on familiar turf.

Best value? PAOK to win, most likely with a narrow margin. The away side’s attacking verve, exemplified by Giakoumakis and Pelkas, tends to overpower opponents, and Aris’ relatively porous defence (20 goals conceded in 19 matches) could struggle with that level of intensity. Aris may aim to keep things tight in the opening stages, banking on Racic’s midfield shields and a compact formation, but with the visitors’ pressing style and swift ball recovery, it’s tough to see Aris controlling the narrative for 90 minutes.

Aris are not without hope—they’ve shown decent structure recently, with 45 interceptions across their last five outings. However, their yellow card count is a concern (18 in 5 matches), hinting at perhaps desperate defending and a tendency to foul in dangerous areas. In contrast, PAOK maintain remarkable discipline (only 8 yellows) and thrive on ball retention (pass accuracy at 82 percent), making it hard for Aris to sustain sustained pressure.

Team Analysis

Aris Thessaloniki come off a narrow 1-0 win over Panaitolikos—a much-needed morale boost, breaking a sticky patch of inconsistent form. Before that, a draw against Levadiakos and a tough 0-3 defeat to Panathinaikos showed both their limitations and occasional resilience. The main struggle for Aris has been chance creation; only four goals in their last five matches, compounded by an average of just 14 shots per game, tell their story. Defensively, they’ve looked nervy under pressure, but kept tidy structure late on against Panaitolikos, thanks in part to Giannis Gianniotas’ battling forward play and centre-back Fabiano’s organisation.

PAOK, contrastingly, look ruthless. They dispatched Panathinaikos (1-0), routed Panserraikos (4-1), and even put up a spirited fight in their 2-4 loss to Lyon. Their controlled 2-0 win over Real Betis underlined their European pedigree and tactical fluidity. Lucescu has PAOK playing with fluid transitions; their pass completion (82%) and aggressive pressing (55 interceptions in the last five) are hallmarks of a well-drilled side. Key men like Giakoumakis and Pelkas are scoring and creating, and the team’s overall balance means they can win ugly or pretty—it’s a trait Aris clearly covet.

Most recent Head-to-Head Matches

🚨Read our full Aris Thessaloniki vs PAOK stats for more analysis.

Pre-game odds and win probability: PAOK the favourite

• Moneyline Aris Thessaloniki 4.10 | PAOK 1.91
• Draw 3.30
• Over/Under Over 2.5 2.10 | Under 2.5 1.67
• BTTS (both teams to score) Yes 1.95 | No 1.80

The bookmakers’ odds tell the story: PAOK are near even-money favourites, reflecting their current form and historical edge in this derby. The under 2.5 goals market looks sensible, considering both teams’ propensity for tight games—especially on Aris’ home patch. BTTS odds tilt towards “No,” and frankly, with Aris’ attacking struggles, that tracks. The draw odds, while not negligible, suggest the market sees some risk in local rivalries but ultimately tips towards PAOK’s quality.

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Possible Starting Lineups

Aris Thessaloniki possible starting eleven

This eleven balances experience and recent form—Athanasiadis’ shot-stopping will be vital between the sticks. The defence, led by Álvaro Tejero and Fabiano, offers some steel, while Racic and Fernandes bring energy to the midfield, flanked by Jensen’s creative edge. Out wide, Carles Pérez is the player to watch for a flash of magic, supporting Moron and Donis in attack. Expect Jiménez to deploy a flexible 4-2-3-1, aiming for compactness but leaving just enough room for Pérez to influence proceedings.

PAOK possible starting eleven

This is a PAOK side brimming with confidence. Tsiftsis gets the nod in goal, shielded by a disciplined back four where Sastre and Baba Rahman offer both security and overlapping runs. In the midfield, Camara and Meïté will be anchoring, with Pelkas pushing forward to link with a dynamic front three. Giakoumakis is very much the danger man, supported by Taison and Živković. PAOK’s shape will reflect Lucescu’s trusted 4-2-3-1, likely to press high and force errors.

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My take on the Match

PAOK look every bit the side ready to secure all three points. Their attack—a blend of power and precision—should crack the Aris code eventually. Still, expect Aris to make a game of it, especially in the opening half-hour, with Racic and Pérez key to any hosts’ success. From our view, though, the away win is the most logical bet, perhaps with a low scoreline and a strong, professional PAOK defensive display. Greek derbies are rarely routine, yet the evidence suggests PAOK’s cohesion and killer instinct will prevail.

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